By the end of 2024, Nghe An is forecast to have heavy rain, flash floods, and landslides.

Reporter:Recently, the weather in Nghe An in particular and the whole country in general has changed frequently, with heat waves, hail and tornadoes occurring frequently. What is your assessment of this situation?

Mr. Le Duc Cuong:It can be affirmed that this is an unusual manifestation. The weather in the past few years, especially from 2022 to the first months of 2024, in Nghe An province in particular, and the North Central region in general, has been erratic, with heat, cold, hail, tornadoes... occurring frequently, and with increasing intensity.

There are many reasons for this situation, but directly due to the influence of the ENSO phase transition from the warm El Nino phase to the neutral phase, and in the near future it is forecasted to transition to the cold La Nina phase. Specifically, it is forecasted that from now (May 2024) to the end of June 2024, El Nino will transition to a neutral state with a probability of 80-85% and quickly transition to La Nina in July-August 2024 with a probability of 60-65%.

Thus, in just 1 year, we have to go through 3 phases of ENSO, which can cause unusual weather fluctuations. The phase change during the seasonal transition and global warming disrupts weather patterns, causing more extreme heat and more erratic hail and tornadoes. The most obvious manifestation is that in the first 3 months of 2024, in the province, especially in the western mountainous region, there were many hail and tornadoes that damaged people's houses, broke trees and crops, causing tens of billions of dong in damage.

Launchpill:In the coming time, especially from now until the end of 2024, how is the weather likely to develop?ThoseWhich locality and region in Nghe An needs attention?closely, regularlythanmore informationweather forecasttoprevent damage?

GrandfatherPearDuc Cuong: As mentioned above, 2024 is predicted to be a year where natural disasters tend to be complex and difficult to predict. Because this is the year of ENSO phase transition from EL Nino to La Nina. Therefore, if in the first half of the year, heat waves continue to appear more frequently and more severely than the average of many years, with many "records" of absolute highest temperatures; drought is forecast to continue to occur locally or widely due to lack of rainfall, then the second half of the year will have different developments. Rainfall is forecast to reach a level higher than the average of many years, with frequent and intense rains leading to natural disasters such as flash floods and landslides.

According to the data we have recorded, in the remaining months of 2024, storms and tropical depressions are likely to affect Nghe An province, concentrated at the end of the storm season (September - November) with unpredictable developments. This is also the peak of the rainy season, with rainfall forecast to be 10-30% higher than the average of many years. Therefore, people need to be on guard against the risk of flash floods and landslides in small rivers, streams, slopes, and flooding in low-lying areas. During thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind.

In particular, the mountainous area in the West of Nghe An province is the place that needs the most attention. Because this is an area with a high density of rivers and streams, steep slopes, flash floods, landslides, hailstorms, etc. often occur. However, due to the limited understanding of hydrometeorology among the people; houses are not built solidly, near steep slopes; and the slow delivery of information and communication to mountainous districts, this has caused great damage to people and property.

To help people get accurate weather forecast information, with the direction of all levels, we will continue to maintain coordination with agencies to provide the fastest and most timely information. Normally, for phenomena such as storms and tropical depressions, it can be predicted 3-7 days in advance or more. As for extreme phenomena such as tornadoes and hail, it can be predicted up to 1-2 hours in advance. Therefore, it is very important to grasp the warnings, helping to minimize damage.

We use a system of stations to measure hydrometeorological factors. Specifically, the North Central region has 26 traditional measuring stations and 56 automatic measuring stations. In addition to the support of machinery and technology, people also play an indispensable role. We maintain a 24/24 duty regime every day, divided into 3 shifts, with no exceptions. Moreover, during times of unusual weather phenomena, the number of people on duty will be increased, and the forecasting and warning work will be increased in frequency.

Reporter:Compared to many years ago, how has the climate in Nghe An and the Central region changed? Are these changes a manifestation of climate change and the impact of the greenhouse effect?

Mr. Le Duc Cuong: That's right. In recent years, under the impact of climate change and global warming, the frequency and intensity of natural disasters such as storms, floods, droughts, El Nino and La Nina phenomena have increased. It is worth mentioning that these types of natural disasters are increasingly occurring irregularly. Previously, these phenomena occurred seasonally and regularly, but now they appear all year round, even in months that are considered rare.

Specifically, according to statistics from 2015-2022, on average each year there are about 9-10 storms and 3-4 tropical depressions, about 22-23 cold spells, 10-11 widespread heavy rains, 9-10 heat waves, 17-18 thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail... Especially in the past 2 years, many record numbers have continuously appeared. It is a hot weather in many places with the highest temperature exceeding the historical value in the past 40 years such as: Tuong Duong 44.2 degrees Celsius (May 7, 2023), Quy Chau 43.2 degrees Celsius (May 6, 2023), Tay Hieu and Do Luong 43.2 degrees Celsius (May 6, 2023), Vinh City 42.9 degrees Celsius (April 30, 2024), Quynh Luu 42.0 degrees Celsius (April 30, 2024)...

Reporter:CWeather forecasting and disaster warning are extremely important. In addition, in your opinion, in the long term, what should people do to prevent and mitigate the negative impacts of natural disasters and adapt to climate change?

Mr. Le Duc Cuong:To effectively implement this content, in addition to continuing to deploy forecasting plans that have brought many results in recent years, in the coming time we will continue to focus on strengthening forecasting and early warning work, long-term. In particular, the specific goals are to increase the forecasting period, issue bulletins earlier so that disaster prevention agencies and people have more time to prepare and time to develop early disaster response plans.

However, along with the efforts of the Hydrometeorology sector, there is also a need for the cooperation of all levels, sectors, authorities and the community to join hands in implementation. There are countless things to do, and it involves every organization, individual and country in the world. However, first of all, to proactively respond, each person needs to constantly raise awareness of climate change and its impacts on human life..

To prevent and mitigate the negative impacts of extreme weather and adapt to climate change, people need to develop action plans to respond to climate change in the future. More recently, to prevent damage and disadvantages caused by weather, people need to regularly monitor weather forecasts/warnings on media, newspapers and radio to proactively prevent. At the same time, authorities at all levels also organize propaganda and dissemination to sectors and people about hydrometeorological knowledge to raise awareness and responsibility for prevention activities, proactively respond to natural disasters and adapt to climate change.

Reporter:Thank you very much!