Behind the new tensions in China-India relations
(Baonghean) - China and India have never fired a single bullet across the border and have not had any serious conflicts (since 1975), although there have been many sporadic clashes and clashes. However, in recent days, with a series of actions by both sides, from both sides increasing troops to China seemingly showing signs of expanding its airbase in the border area of the two countries, there is a risk of a new serious conflict in the current period!
Trouble on the roof of the world
Tensions between India and China have been rising in the Ladakh and Sikkim regions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in recent days. Since the beginning of the month, hundreds of soldiers from both sides clashed near Pangong Lake in eastern Ladakh on May 5. Then, about 150 soldiers from both sides were involved in another clash at Naku La Pass in North Sikkim on May 9. Soon after the violent confrontation, both sides have been deploying more troops and increasing their presence. According to incomplete figures, China may have moved nearly 5,000 soldiers near the disputed border area in Ladakh, while India has also sent reinforcements to the area.
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| India's New Delhi Television (NDTV) recently released satellite images of what it said was a large-scale Chinese construction project at the Ngari Gunsa air base in Tibet. Photo: NDTV |
In addition, India's New Delhi Television (NDTV) recently released satellite images of what is believed to be a large-scale Chinese construction project at the Ngari Gunsa air base in western Tibet, just 200 km from Pangong Lake, the border area where soldiers from the two countries clashed earlier this month. It should be noted that the location of this air base is extremely important, as it is located near the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Observers say that this airport not only serves civilian flights but also serves the Chinese military. The expansion will allow China to receive more aircraft to Beijing's base in this area.
In turn, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has accused the Indian Army of obstructing the normal patrols and operations of Chinese border guards. Amid escalating border tensions with China, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently convened a meeting with military chiefs to discuss how to deal with external security challenges. Although he claimed that the agenda of the meeting was to discuss military reforms and strengthening the combat capabilities of the Indian army, military sources said that Modi had been briefed on the tensions with China in the Ladakh region.
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| Chinese and Indian soldiers at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Photo: PTI |
New context
In the context of the China-India border still not being clearly demarcated, conflicts and territorial violations all stem from the two sides' different perceptions of each other's territorial scope. The full-scale war in 1962 also broke out due to this underlying cause. Since then, public opinion has not been too surprised by the small-scale skirmishes in the disputed border area between the two sides. Therefore, China's recent moves to increase its presence and massively strengthen its infrastructure, as well as the unprecedented level of tension in many locations in the eastern part of the Ladakh region, have attracted special public attention.
Most observers were expecting some India-related information from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s press conference on the sidelines of the ongoing session of China’s National People’s Congress. However, the 100-minute meeting did not include any mention of the current conflicts with New Delhi. Taylor Fravel, professor of international relations at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the US and author of two major books on China’s territorial disputes and military strategy, commented that Beijing’s moves are difficult to decipher, especially in the absence of any official statement from the Chinese government. According to observers, the simplest explanation is that China is responding to India’s recent moves to strengthen and build infrastructure in the Ladakh region. Many sources said that China was very angry with India's completion of the 25 km long road connecting Depsang with the Gallewan valley and the Karakoram pass.
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| China - India: a relationship of both competition and cooperation. Photo: The week |
From another perspective, expert Ashok Kantha, former Indian ambassador to China from 2014 to 2016, commented that there has been a major change in China's behavior and the scale of its moves in the border area to pressure and isolate India. For its part, faced with China's new calculations, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi administration has two options: One is to respond firmly as suggested by domestic hawks; Two is to seek negotiations and agreements that are suitable for both sides. Of course, everyone understands that conflict with both countries during the current period of fighting the pandemic is a "last resort". Meanwhile, both India and China have strategic interests that need to be exploited from the other side. If India is a potential market to save the Chinese economy, Beijing plays an important role in New Delhi's foreign balancing policy. Therefore, although the current escalation of tensions between the two countries will cause many risks of instability and conflict is inevitable; a bloody conflict scenario is unlikely to happen!
