Reversing strategic calculations in Idlib (Syria)?

The escalation has left Türkiye caught between stern warnings from Russia and U.S. pressure to act as it continues to pressure the Syrian army to withdraw from positions in the Idlib de-escalation zone. Amid the standoff, the Syrian Kurds are becoming a key factor in the calculations of both Russia and the U.S. to change Ankara’s course.

Bargaining card

The Trump administration is reportedly considering options to support Türkiye in its military operation in Idlib. In a move that will please Ankara, Washington has warned the Kurds to stay out of the conflict. Russia, for its part, appears to be looking to involve the Kurds in the conflict, albeit quietly at this point, in a way that goes beyond reviving dialogue between the Kurds and Damascus.

The Kurds have recently been concerned that Russia, in an effort to bring Türkiye to Syria’s side, could allow Ankara to take control of the Kurdish border town of Kobani in exchange for concessions in Idlib. This concern is not unfounded, given the close cooperation between Moscow and Ankara in Syria. However, in the face of a reversal in the situation, with Russia-Turkey relations fraying after an attack that killed several Turkish soldiers in early February, the Kurds feel that Russia could open the door to them to a degree they never imagined.

According to writer Fehim Tastekin of the newspaperTurkey Pulse, the Kurdish position can be summarized as follows: wanting to maintain a partnership with the US, continuing to see the Turkish military presence as the main threat, and while viewing Russia as the guarantor of negotiations with the Damascus regime. The Kurds have always remembered that Russia’s strategic interests could make them accommodate Turkey, as happened in 2018 when they accepted Türkiye’s takeover of Afrin.

However, the priorities of the Kurdish approach have changed since Türkiye launched Operation Peace Spring in northeastern Syria in October 2019. The view that the Syrian government is the main force to resolve the Kurdish issue has become a common strategic choice for the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in northern and eastern Syria. In late December 2019, Russia met with Kurdish representatives at Khmeimim air base, after which Moscow arranged a dialogue between Syrian government and Kurdish representatives in Damascus. The dialogue resulted in an agreement to form joint committees with a view to further negotiations in the future.

Changing Kurdish strategy

The tensions between Russia and Türkiye in Idlib have led to changes in the Kurds’ tactical options. Al-Monitor, citing sources, reported that the Kurds are cooperating with the Syrian army in carrying out some operations in the northwestern province of Aleppo, specifically in areas along the border with Afrin. The expansion of the Syrian army’s offensive in the direction of Afrin could include the participation of the Kurds.

Two other potential fronts emerging at the moment are Tel Rifaat, where the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) deployed after withdrawing from Afrin in 2018, and Manbij, which has been taken over by Russian and Syrian forces since the US withdrawal. Meanwhile, east of the Euphrates, which is controlled by the Turkish army and its ally the Syrian National Army (SNA), and the nearby areas of Tel Tamer and Ain Issa, which lie on the M4 highway linking Latakia and Aleppo, are also considered key areas where fighting could take place. In fact, these locations have seen sporadic clashes, but they are under control. However, if fighting breaks out between the Syrian and Turkish armies in Idlib, they could become “red hot battlefields”.

Although joint Russian-Turkish patrols along Türkiye’s border with Syria have resumed after being suspended following an attack that killed several Turkish soldiers in Idlib in early February, the Sochi deal is in danger of collapsing, meaning that Russia, the guarantor of the ceasefire, will no longer act to restrain the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian army in the region.

The American factor cannot be ignored.

However, according to analysts, this assessment seems a bit premature at the moment, because another factor needs to be mentioned: the US. The US has warned the Kurds that they will not receive any support from this country if they fight the Turkish army. "A senior US official stressed that the YPG has been clearly informed that the US will not choose them over Türkiye in the event of a conflict," Turkish journalist Murat Yetkin said on February 18.

According to this journalist, Türkiye's Operation Peace Spring in October 2019 seemed to have accomplished two goals: establishing its military presence in northeastern Syria and proving that the US would not stand up to protect the Kurds.

Regarding the Idlib situation, journalist Yetkin said that US forces will not directly get involved in the Idlib conflict but they will support Ankara in many areas from providing intelligence to special equipment when needed.

Türkiye has previously requested the US to deploy two Patriot missile defense batteries to its southern border to punish any future attacks by the Russian-backed Syrian army. Al-Monitor quoted several sources as saying that Turkey has the capacity to mobilize up to 45,000 troops to the region in a short period of time, while “neither Russia nor Syria have the capacity to do so.”

The lesson is obvious

It can be said that the current situation in Idlib is very complicated, where cooperation, contradictions and conflicts between the US and Türkiye, between Türkiye and Russia, between Russia and the US exist side by side. However, Russia's role as a mediator and guarantor of negotiations has become greater (for the Kurds) after the US showed its support for Türkiye's Operation Peace Spring.

Moreover, the deepening rift between Moscow and Ankara means that Russia will be more interested in working with the Kurds, which could lead to a solution that benefits the Kurds. The escalating tensions in Idlib between Russia and Turkey are now developing “in the worst-case scenario,” Elena Suponina, a Middle East expert, told Bloomberg. By providing air cover for the Syrian army, Russia has shown that it is ready to respond harshly if Türkiye does not restrain itself, she said.

However, it is still too early to talk about the prospects of cooperation between Russia and the Kurds, because it is possible that Russia does not want to engage in a full-scale confrontation with Türkiye because the Russia-Turkey relationship is of “strategic importance” and closely linked to the interests of each side. In addition, Russia has also witnessed a clear lesson from the US. It is the inconsistency in the policy of the US - a country that cooperates with two arch-rivals, Türkiye and the Kurds - that has caused Washington to lose two important allies at the same time and soon lose its influence in Syria./.