What would happen if Trump ordered a nuclear attack on China?

Upon receiving orders from Trump, the Pacific Fleet could fire nuclear missiles in just 5 minutes without anyone being able to stop it.

Admiral Scott Swift, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet. Photo: U.S. Navy.

Admiral Scott Swift, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, stated at a recent conference in Australia that he would comply with orders if President Donald Trump requested a nuclear strike against China "next week," according to ABC News.

"Every member of the U.S. military has sworn an oath to defend the Constitution against all enemies, domestic and foreign, and to obey the orders of the president—the supreme commander of the armed forces," Swift emphasized.

Admiral Swift's statement immediately sparked controversy in public opinion regarding the possibility of a nuclear attack by US President Donald Trump, who had previously declared his desire for the US to be "above all" in nuclear capabilities. During his election campaign, Trump also showed particular interest in nuclear weapons and had stated that he did not rule out the possibility of using these weapons of mass destruction to eliminate the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) militants.

Swift's message comes as China has just labeled the US a "threat to national security" after two of its fighter jets nearly collided with a US reconnaissance aircraft. CIA Director Mike Pompeo later stated that Beijing poses a greater threat to US national security than other hostile nations, including Russia and Iran.

According to analysts, while Admiral Swift's statement raises concerns about a sudden nuclear war catastrophe, it reflects the reality that the decision to launch a nuclear attack on China would be made and executed by only two people: the President and the Commander-in-Chief of the Pacific Fleet.

According to the U.S. Constitution, Trump is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, with the authority to use the nuclear briefcase to order a nuclear attack on any enemy in the world. Bruce G. Blair, a former officer in charge of the U.S. Minuteman ballistic missile launch silos, believes that after Trump gives the order, the U.S. military would carry out this attack within 5 minutes, targeting China's underground intercontinental ballistic missile silos.

U.S. nuclear-powered missile submarines receive orders a little later because they are operating deep underwater, but they can still fire missiles about 15 minutes after receiving the order.

Experts believe that when Trump makes such a decision, senior officials in Washington will certainly try to buy time, such as seeking to renegotiate the attack decision with him. However, theoretically, no one can prevent the US President from issuing an order to the Pacific Fleet to enter the nuclear weapons activation codes, especially with the public support of Admiral Swift, according to ValueWalk commentator Polina Tikhonova.

US submarines can fire nuclear missiles 15 minutes after President Trump issues an order. Photo: US Navy.

This process differs slightly from launching a nuclear strike in Russia. If the Russian president decides to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike, he would use the Cheget briefcase to transmit orders to the headquarters of the chief of general staff, missile forces, navy, and air force via a special communication network.

Upon receiving the signal, the duty officer of the strategic nuclear missile forces will use a unique code to confirm that it is indeed a presidential decision, and simultaneously establish a hotline to contact the president, the secretary of defense, and the chairman of the general staff. Only after confirmation can the order to fire the nuclear missiles be executed.

A disastrous decision

Most experts agree that if a nuclear war were to break out between the United States and China, it would be a catastrophic scenario for both sides. The U.S. currently possesses approximately 6,800 nuclear warheads, while China has 270, according to recent estimates by the Arms Control Association (ACA).

A report published last year by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) indicated that the risk of a nuclear war between the United States and China is not inevitable, but its likelihood is increasing.

In May, President Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to conduct its first freedom of navigation operation near the artificial islands illegally built by China on Mischief Reef in Vietnam's Spratly Islands. On July 2, China deployed fighter jets to shadow the destroyer Stethem as it entered the 12-nautical-mile zone around Tri Ton Island in Vietnam's Paracel Islands, which are illegally occupied by China.

US President Donald Trump. Photo: Reuters.

China has reacted strongly to the US, warning of "negative elements" in bilateral relations and calling the US warship's patrols in the South China Sea a "serious military and political provocation."

According to Abraham Denmark, a senior security expert at the National Institute for Asian Studies, the recent harsh rhetoric between Washington and Beijing could escalate bilateral tensions, potentially leading to miscalculations on the ground and resulting in nuclear conflict.

"If the U.S. and China cannot find common ground on crucial issues like the South China Sea, and if Trump orders further actions that could escalate tensions in bilateral relations, the risk of nuclear war between the two powers will increase," Denmark stated.

According to VNE