What if Trump orders a nuclear attack on China?

Upon receiving orders from Trump, the Pacific Fleet can launch nuclear missiles in just 5 minutes without anyone being able to stop it.

Admiral Scott Swift, commander of the US Pacific Fleet. Photo: US Navy.

Admiral Scott Swift, commander of the US Pacific Fleet, affirmed at a recent conference in Australia that he would obey orders if President Donald Trump requested a nuclear attack on China "within the next week", according to ABC News.

"Every member of the US military has sworn an oath to defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic and to obey all orders of the President - the commander in chief of the armed forces," Mr. Swift emphasized.

This statement by Admiral Swift immediately sparked a wave of controversy in public opinion about the possibility of launching a nuclear attack by US President Donald Trump, who once declared that he wanted the US to "stand above all" in nuclear capabilities. During the election campaign, Mr. Trump also showed a special interest in nuclear weapons and affirmed that he did not rule out the possibility of using this weapon of mass destruction to destroy the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) militants.

Mr. Swift's message came as China labeled the United States a "threat to national security" after two Chinese fighter jets nearly collided with a U.S. reconnaissance plane. CIA Director Mike Pompeo later said that Beijing posed a greater threat to U.S. national security than other hostile countries, including Russia and Iran.

According to analysts, although Admiral Swift's assertion raises concerns about an unexpected nuclear war disaster, it reflects the reality that the decision to launch a US nuclear attack against China would be made and carried out by just two people, the President and the Commander of the Pacific Fleet.

According to the US Constitution, Mr. Trump is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, with the right to use the nuclear briefcase to order a nuclear attack on any enemy in the world. Bruce G. Blair, a former officer in charge of the US Minuteman ballistic missile silos, said that after Mr. Trump gave the order, the US military would carry out this attack within 5 minutes, targeting the underground silos containing China's intercontinental ballistic missiles.

US nuclear missile submarines will receive orders a little later because they are operating deep under the sea, but they can still fire missiles about 15 minutes after receiving the order.

Experts say that when Mr. Trump makes such a decision, senior officials in Washington will certainly take actions to stall for time, such as trying to discuss the decision to attack with Mr. Trump again. However, in theory, no one can stop the US President from ordering the Pacific Fleet to enter the nuclear weapons activation code, especially when he has the public support of Admiral Swift, according to ValueWalk commentator Polina Tikhonova.

US submarines can fire nuclear missiles 15 minutes after Mr. Trump gives the order. Photo: US Navy.

The procedure is slightly different from launching a nuclear strike in Russia. If the Russian president decides to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike, he will use the Cheget briefcase to transmit the order to the headquarters of the general staff, missile forces, navy and air force via a special communication network.

The duty officer of the strategic nuclear missile force, upon receiving the signal, will use a private code to confirm that it is the decision made by the president and at the same time set up a hotline to contact the president, the defense minister and the chief of staff. After confirmation, the order to launch a nuclear missile is executed.

Disaster decision

Most experts agree that a nuclear war between the US and China would be a catastrophic scenario for both sides. The US currently possesses about 6,800 nuclear warheads, while China has 270, according to a recent estimate by the Arms Control Association (ACA).

A report by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) published last year found that the risk of nuclear war between the US and China is not inevitable, but its likelihood is increasing.

In May, Mr. Trump ordered the US Navy to conduct its first freedom of navigation operation during his term near the artificial island that China illegally built on Vành Khăn Reef in Vietnam’s Trường Sa archipelago. On July 2, China sent fighter jets to follow the destroyer Stethem into the 12-nautical mile zone around Tri Tôn Island in Vietnam’s Hoàng Sa archipelago, which China illegally occupied.

US President Donald Trump. Photo: Reuters.

China has reacted strongly to the US, warning that there will be "negative factors" in the relationship between the two countries, calling the US warship's patrol in the East Sea a "serious military and political provocation".

According to Abraham Denmark, a senior security expert at the National Institute for Asian Studies, recent harsh rhetoric between Washington and Beijing could increase bilateral tensions, causing incidents on the ground to escalate due to miscalculations, leading to nuclear conflict.

"If the US and China cannot find common ground on important issues such as the East Sea and Trump orders further actions that could further escalate tensions in the relationship between the two countries, the risk of nuclear war between the two powers will increase," Denmark said.

According to VNE