The US-Russia confrontation has become a global struggle.

No longer just a confrontation in Ukraine, the US has opened up a global arena, and Russia has been forced to enter the fray...

What awaits Ukraine?

If anyone thinks that Russia is winning, dominating Europe, and that the Minsk agreement is about to become a reality, that the Ukraine crisis will end soon, and that the Russians are leading 1-0 in this Ukraine conflict, then perhaps they are being overly optimistic a little too soon.

Russia may be able to overwhelm the EU, but the game is becoming complicated now that Russia's real rival, the US, has entered the fray.

Kyiv is doing everything it can to prolong the crisis and maintain the fighting in the East. Kyiv continues to reinforce the national army with tanks and continues to pass laws increasing the army's troop numbers.

The fighting in eastern Ukraine continues fiercely at Donetsk airport. On March 3rd, there were 24 violations of the ceasefire. On March 4th, three Ukrainian soldiers were killed and nine were wounded. The OSCE itself could not confirm whether Ukraine had actually withdrawn its heavy weapons.

Rocket artillery is still firing at Donetsk airport.

Why does Kyiv need to maintain tension in the East? Because it's the only pressure they can exert on the EU right now. Previously, energy was a way for Ukraine to threaten the EU, but now the gas issue is different. When Kyiv ran out of money to buy energy, the EU proactively negotiated with Russia, bypassing Ukraine, to secure a steady and safe supply for the EU.

Kyiv itself had to spend $15 million to buy Russian gas to survive for five days. After that, after five days from March 6th onwards, they will have to continue searching for benefactors. Kyiv's continued escalation of attacks and instability only makes the Minsk agreement more fragile and vulnerable.

That instability, combined with pressure from the US—Washington's insistence on using the "Minsk" sabotage as a pretext to impose increased sanctions on Russia—will force the EU to open its wallet. Kyiv is not unaware of the US's intentions in this deal.

Moreover, NATO countries are still providing military aid to Ukraine, notably the targeting equipment donated by Finland to Kyiv, and recently, Poland has also loudly supported strengthening the Eastern European nation's military.

The longer the delay, the more support Kyiv receives. And more importantly, the US gains more opportunities to maintain one of its fronts in the confrontation with Russia.

The US-Russia global power struggle.

Regarding the Ukraine crisis, if the Minsk agreement is implemented, the separatists will have two autonomous regions, Donetsk and Lugansk, and Russia will gain the Crimean Peninsula... And most importantly, the sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU will have to be lifted.

This shows that Russia lost tens of billions of dollars throughout the crisis, almost entirely due to the drop in oil prices. The drop in oil prices wasn't just a loss for Russia; the US suffered, and OPEC also struggled. Therefore, it can be said that Russia didn't suffer as much as the US expected, but Russia gained significantly geopolitically.

The separatists in Donbass continue to recruit soldiers daily, citing the ongoing attacks by Kyiv.

Not to mention that Moscow would secure a stable southern front, allowing it to focus on other fronts in its confrontation with the US. That is the primary reason Washington wants Ukraine to remain unstable, to prolong the economic pain caused by the sanctions imposed by the West.

Setting aside the Ukraine issue for a moment, the argument that the US is imposing its will on Russia in the global game is not without reason.

The confrontation has spilled over to Iran. Russia itself has also brought Iran into the conflict to threaten the US. President Putin said in late February 2015 that if the US increased sanctions, Russia would supply weapons to Iran. Putin knows that this Middle Eastern power remains a strategic asset for him.

But the US began to counter this Russian threat by consistently pursuing negotiations with Tehran on the nuclear issue. Despite lingering tensions, Washington's openness has been evident. The US even asserted that it would shoot down any Israeli aircraft if Israel dared to launch an attack or airstrike against Iran.

The sincerity of the US has been clearly demonstrated, and Iran will also be hesitant and unlikely to mistreat the US because of Russia. Meanwhile, Iran itself also desires the lifting of sanctions and embargoes imposed by the United Nations.

And so the playing field in eastern Russia was established. Russia's trump cards began to lose their effectiveness as the US opted for a "image-shifting" strategy. This strategy was mentioned by President Obama when he initiated swift actions to mend relations with Cuba in Latin America.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif concluded three days of nuclear talks in Switzerland on Wednesday, March 4th. Officials from both sides indicated that progress had been made.

The US is applying that strategy to confront Iran. And with another Russian ally, Syria, which has almost become a pawn, embroiled in the war against ISIS terrorists and the opposition.

The US continues its fight against ISIS in a protracted manner through airstrikes. However, ISIS has suddenly become far more useful to the US than any other ally. ISIS's destabilizing influence in Syria has linked the US and Iran to a common goal: eliminating this terrorist organization.

As long as IS exists, both the Middle East and the world will continue to rely on the leading military role of the United States.

Thus, it can be concluded that, on the West, Russia is isolated by NATO; on the East, a chaotic and uncontrollable Middle East; and on the border, instability in Ukraine. Not to mention the economic sanctions still tightening around their heads. At this moment, the upper hand is not with Russia, but it seems the wind has shifted, allowing the US to rise rapidly.

What can Russia do?

Within an increasingly tight circle of isolation, Russia is seeking every means to create a pincer movement with its adversaries. Similar to how the US turned friends into enemies with Russia, Moscow is playing a similar game by pushing the EU into internal conflict and drawing it to its side with tangible benefits.

Notable examples include Germany, France, several Eastern European countries, Greece, Türkiye, and others. Russia used the tactic of offering greater economic benefits to attract these new friends.

Simultaneously, Moscow continues to assert its dominance through threatening actions, with Russian generals frequently appearing in the media to speak of a nuclear attack or swift retaliations that would cause the enemy to collapse instantly...

Another lifeline for Russia, which the US cannot influence, is China. The world's second-largest economy, with its enormous foreign exchange reserves, is perfectly capable of rescuing Russia from its economic, financial, or even military crisis.

The death of Boris Nemtsov could well usher in a new, much more intense phase of the Russia-US confrontation.

But surely, Moscow will only use Beijing as a last resort. Russia understands perfectly well that China is a double-edged sword. When faced with difficulties, China quickly profited with a $400 billion energy contract package, seemingly enormous on the surface, but with unit prices even cheaper than selling to the EU. Or Beijing continuously pressured Moscow to release its most advanced weapons in exchange for Chinese support and backing.

However, what Russia has yet to do is exert the slightest influence on the United States. Even America's backyard, Latin America, has been quickly and discreetly fenced off by President Obama with a series of measures to normalize relations with rival nations.

Returning to the crisis in Ukraine, Russia may have the upper hand for now, but overall, the US has officially expanded its confrontation with Russia from the regional level in Ukraine to the global level. Thus, the concept of regional instability will also transform into global instability, which is truly dangerous for the entire world.

According to Baodatviet