How does Donald Trump solve the China test?

According to security experts, US President-elect Donald Trump will soon face a test from China.

America's allies and adversaries alike are wondering what Donald Trump is really like: an autocrat or a Republican surrounded by advisers with a hawkish view on China?

An early test could determine how much the new US president reshapes Asian foreign policy, whether traditional allies continue to rely on US protection or seek new arrangements for their security.

Professor Ni Lexiong of the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law said China would likely increase pressure on the Trump administration to test its limits. A Trump victory would either create peace in East Asia or further disrupt the region.

The 2001 Hainan Island incident, when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a US intelligence plane, put enormous pressure on President George W Bush from the start.

Photo: Reuters

Kunihiko Miyake, a professor at Ritsumeikan University, said that at the meeting with Mr. Trump in New York next week, Mr. Abe will not preach, not scold, but try to find ways to cooperate. Abe's approach to Mr. Trump will be very meaningful.

These early moves suggest that the US president-elect will act more like a traditional Republican. According to Yanmei Xie, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, China believes it has a grasp of the media billionaire, knows how to stroke the ego of a strong and authoritarian man, and so believes it can deal with the US under Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump’s advisers include Alexander Gray, who worked for Republican congressman Randy Forbes, an outspoken critic of the Chinese government; Mike Pillsbury, author of “The 100-Year Marathon,” which argues that China is seeking to dominate the world; and Peter Navarro, an academic who directed and produced the film “Death by China: Confronting the Dragon.”

If Mr Trump reacts strongly to any Chinese test, America’s allies will breathe a sigh of relief and may be willing to respond to his overtures with at least symbolic efforts like increasing their own defense budgets.

However, Asia's anxiety will remain high until Mr Trump demonstrates his commitment to the continent.

Nathan Batto, a political scientist at Academia Sinica in Taipei, compared: if Mr. Trump thinks there is no need to clash with Russia because of NATO, how would he feel about a clash with China over Taiwan?

Big changes will take place in Asia if Mr. Trump truly pursues self-reliance. John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, analyzed: in the face of the pressure that the US-South Korea alliance is facing, Beijing will try to assert itself by playing both the hard cards – like telling the South Koreans not to install THAAD – and the soft cards – like arguing “look, you can rely on us and you can’t rely on the Americans.”

If this creates a power vacuum, it could be an opportunity for China, Xie said. Some weaker countries may become more accommodating to Beijing, while stronger countries may strengthen their defense capabilities. In either case, the balance of power in Asia will change fundamentally.

According to Vietnamnet