Southeast Asia worries about losing rice because of El Nino

Although the El Nino phenomenon is weakening, it continues to affect crops and livestock in Southeast Asian countries.

According to WSJ, the average temperature of Earth measured last February was 2.43 degrees F higher than the average temperature of the same period in the period 1951-1980, data from the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA said.

“The high temperatures will last for a few months after the El Nino event ends, so hot and dry conditions are expected. Under the impact of El Nino, there is a hidden global warming trend, so temperatures continue to rise,” said Agus Santoso, a senior researcher at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales.

El Nino began in the first half of 2015, peaked in December, and has since weakened. But the phenomenon will continue to affect the types of weather it destabilizes. Experts expect the weather to return to normal in the second half of 2016.

Turbulent weather patterns occur when winds in the equatorial Pacific Ocean slow or reverse direction. This creates warm waters over a large area, which can affect weather around the world. The severity of the phenomenon is measured by ocean temperatures and atmospheric convection activity.

The Ministry of Agriculture warns that drought in the Mekong Delta could last until June or even the end of this year. Photo: Rappler

The El Nino phenomenon typically reduces rainfall in many parts of South and Southeast Asia, while at the same time it brings rain to the western United States and parts of South America.

Vietnam is one of the most affected countries in the region.

Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development estimates that ongoing drought and saltwater intrusion have affected 343,476 hectares of rice in the Mekong Delta since late last year, reducing rice yields by 30% to 70%.

“Drought and saltwater intrusion have become more serious this year, causing damage to the socio-economy of nine provinces in the Mekong Delta,” Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Cao Duc Phat said in the report, warning that the drought in the region could last until June or even the end of this year, Phat warned.

Drought is also worsening in other countries in Southeast Asia. Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand also recorded low rainfall in February, worsening the already pessimistic outlook for their sugar, rice and palm oil industries.

"If you look at the rainfall maps over the last few months, there has been very little rainfall across the world. We have seen how El Niño affects weather, and the impact is big, very big," said Aurelia Britsch, Asia-Pacific agricultural economist at BMI Research.

Ms. Britsch lowered forecasts for rice, sugar and coffee production in the region. She also said that Vietnam's rice exports would fall for the first time since 2001.

Ms. Britsch noted that rice prices will start to rise due to limited supply in the market. Palm oil has been one of the biggest gainers in the past six months, up nearly 40% since August last year, due to concerns about tight supplies. With the dry weather pattern continuing, palm oil prices could rise further, analysts said.

“We expect palm oil prices to continue to move higher later this year and into 2017, if production continues to decline due to prolonged dry weather,” said Barnabas Gan, commodity economist at OCBC Bank, predicting palm oil prices to reach 2,650 Malaysian ringgit ($623) a tonne by year-end.

Unlike Southeast Asia, Australia is only partially affected by the El Nino phenomenon.Although February is the rainy season in the north, some livestock farmers are seeing less than normal rainfall, forcing them to consider slaughtering livestock because there is not enough grass to feed them.

John Stoate, who has about 25,000 cattle on a 300,000-hectare property on Australia's northwest coast, says he and his neighbors are facing new challenges because there is much less rain than before.

“We are having a difficult time with feed and have to decide what to keep and what to sell,” he said.

According to VNE