Derivatives Forecast April 18: Prolonged tug-of-war, waiting for confirmation from cash flow and technicals

The derivatives trading session on April 17 saw a rise as all futures contracts increased in points. The VN30F2505 contract increased sharply by 1.16% to 1,303.4 points, while the VN30F2504 contract increased by 0.47% and maintained green at the end of the session thanks to overwhelming demand in the second half of the afternoon.

However, the point is worth noting thatTrading volume of the entire derivatives market decreased slightly., of which the F2504 contract fell more than 14%, reflectinghesitant and cautiousfrom investors. Foreign investors returned to net buying with a modest scale - 583 contracts, but this is still a positive signal in the context of volatile trading.

basisThe gap between the VN30F2504 contract price and the underlying VN30-Index widened to -7.03 points, showing that investors' short-term expectations are still leaning towards caution.

Technically,VN30-Index is in the process of retesting the strong resistance zone of 1,280–1,300 points., which coincides with the Fibonacci Projection 38.2% level. The MACD indicator is still below the signal line but has gradually narrowed the gap. If the buy signal reappears, the short-term trend will become more positive, creating positive momentum for the futures contract.

In the short term, the trendThe sideways movement is likely to continue.in the session of April 18, especially at the 1,300-1,305 point range for VN30F2505. This will be a strategic area for investors to consider opening a buying position if the market does not correct deeply. On the contrary, profit-taking pressure may increase if the 1,310 point threshold is exceeded without confirmation of liquidity.

Forgovernment bond futures, the codes GB05F2506, GB05F2509 and GB05F2512 are currently priced attractively compared to reasonable valuations. This could be a notable medium-term investment opportunity in the context of stable interest rates.

Overall, the session on April 18 is likely to continue to be a session of differentiation and accumulation in the derivatives market, with the opportunity to open short-term positions at the support zone of 1,296-1,300 points, but it is necessary to closely follow technical signals and cash flow developments before taking action.