Germany warns of worst-case scenario after 2024 US election

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. Photo: AP

In an interview with Welt am Sonntag newspaper, Mr. Pistorius said that Washington's aid to Ukraine would likely be cut regardless of the vote result.

Minister Pistorius believes the US will have to pay more attention to the Indo-Pacific region after 2024, even if a “pro-European” president wins next year’s election. The minister warned that a “worst-case” scenario could also spell the end of Western support for Kiev.

“If the worst-case scenario happens and an American president who is far from Europe and NATO takes office, we will face challenges that are currently unimaginable,” Pistorius said.

The German minister then warned that Europe would have to “compensate” for the reduced US commitment to the defense of the military bloc. Mr. Pistorius added that Germany’s defense problems would be difficult to solve by then. The minister acknowledged that the supply and funding problems that the German military, the Bundeswehr, has faced for years are unlikely to be resolved before 2030. He also said the Bundeswehr’s stockpiles are limited and it cannot fulfill its commitment to provide more German-made tanks to Ukraine.

The secretary did not specify whose victory in the 2024 presidential election he would consider a “worst-case scenario.” However, several potential Republican candidates, including former President Donald Trump, have expressed skepticism about support for Ukraine. In March, Mr. Trump said that if he were re-elected, Kiev should know that “there will be less money from us.”

Another potential candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has described the conflict as a “territorial dispute” and has said it is not in the US’s interest to become actively involved. In late March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed concern about the possibility of US support dwindling, stressing that “if they stop helping us, we will not be able to win.”