Germany 'tough' on China: Confrontation or just 'wind blow'?

This is a rare response from Berlin to China’s problems, in the context of other Western countries, especially the US and UK, constantly criticizing Beijing for its lack of transparency about the origin of Covid-19 and more recently its move to impose a new security law in Hong Kong. So how can we explain this behavior of Germany?

Western Effect

In a notable statement, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas announced on July 31 that he would suspend the extradition treaty with Hong Kong, citing the Hong Kong government’s decision to declare many opposition candidates ineligible to run in the election and the postponement of the September election. Germany thus became the first EU country to announce the suspension of the extradition treaty with Hong Kong. This can be considered Berlin’s first “strong” response after a period of cautiousness in the face of criticism from other Western countries against Beijing regarding the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the Hong Kong security law. There are three possible reasons for Germany’s response this time.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas announced on July 31 that he would suspend the extradition treaty with Hong Kong. Photo: Reuters

First of all, Germany is holding the rotating presidency of the EU, so any decision could be a “mirror” reflecting the EU’s perspective. Meanwhile, the EU has repeatedly expressed deep concern about the Hong Kong security law that China passed at the end of June, saying that the new law will seriously affect the special administrative region’s long-standing autonomy and relative freedom.

The EU has even recently decided to restrict the sale of “dual-use” technology to Hong Kong, which is technology that can be used for civilian purposes but can also be used for military and security operations, such as positioning systems, thermal imaging, or crowd control equipment. They believe that these are technologies that can be used for “internal repression, eavesdropping on internal communications, or cyber surveillance.” In such a context, no matter how cautious Germany is, it is forced to have a certain response to China to ensure a unified stance within the EU.

Second, similar to the EU, Germany can hardly stand aside without making any moves when other allies such as the US, UK, and Canada are all “boiling” over China’s policies. Although the Berlin-Washington relationship shows signs of “cracking”, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government can hardly choose to lean towards China and ignore the US. So, at the very least, the “Western effect” forces Germany to speak out against China’s actions, even if this angers Beijing.

Third, there is also a growing sentiment within Germany that the government should change its stance on China. Politicians from both the opposition and the government are accusing Chancellor Merkel of being too soft on Beijing. Didi Kirsten Tatlow, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), told DW that in its efforts to maintain relations with Beijing, Germany is being too “soft” and that this could cause “disappointment” among Hong Kongers. And this may also put pressure on Berlin to respond to Beijing.

China condemns Germany's decision to suspend extradition treaty with Hong Kong. Photo: Reuters

Many benefits attached

However, many experts believe that Germany will find it difficult to go further in confronting China. Like most other European countries, Germany is not interested in pursuing the same approach as the US, which is to confront China. Many German politicians believe that Europe in general and Germany in particular need to create a “separate position” when the US and China are increasingly tense and war is not excluded.

It can be seen that over the years, German officials have always treated China skillfully. Since the time of Chancellor Helmut Kohl, German officials have become regular guests in Beijing. During her 15 years as Chancellor, Angela Merkel made 12 trips to China. She was accompanied by a series of CEOs from major German companies, with the aim of both introducing them to Chinese leaders and emphasizing Germany's unique advantage in the manufacturing sector.

The likes of Bosch, BMW, Mercedes, Siemens and Volkswagen are all major manufacturing brands, supplying the factory equipment and infrastructure that helped China become the world’s leading manufacturer. In turn, working with Asia’s fastest-growing economy has also helped Germany recover strongly from the financial crisis and weather the European sovereign debt crisis.

Moreover, Germany’s motto on China has always been “Wandel durch Handel,” which means “change through trade.” Germans love to spend on humanitarian and commercial causes, in the hope that by giving everyone a free and open global order, positive changes can be achieved. “Germany-China trade relations dominate security issues more than anything else,” says Noah Barkin, a research fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. In fact, since 2017, China has replaced the United States as Germany’s largest trading partner, and bilateral trade surpassed $200 billion in 2018.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (center left) and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (center right) pose for a group photo during the Germany-China Dialogue Forum in Beijing on September 6, 2019. Photo: AFP

In a notable development, right after Germany agreed to spend $10 billion to rescue Lufthansa in June 2020, the airline announced the resumption of its Frankfurt-Shanghai route. Observers said that whether it was a coincidence or a calculated move, Lufthansa's new move showed that Germany prioritized restoring trade links with China, which had been disrupted due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

With such close trade and business ties, it is understandable that the German government would want to avoid confrontation with the Chinese government. So Germany’s latest tough stance on the Chinese territory of Hong Kong can be seen as a “low-key” move in an otherwise inevitable context. In the long term, even when Chancellor Merkel leaves office, there is no certainty that Germany will completely change its stance on China, as economic and trade cooperation remain Berlin’s priority.