EU and UK: A "guts contest" before the moment of "divorce"

Tough week of negotiations

The European Union and the UK have resumed negotiations since October 8, and have agreed to negotiate continuously every day until the EU Summit on October 17 and 18.

According to the plan, EU and UK leaders will try to sign an agreement before this conference based on the rather optimistic comments made by European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker last weekend, that "the UK and the EU are very close to an agreement" and "if not reached in October, then in November". Previously, European Council President Donald Tusk also announced that a Brexit agreement could be reached by the end of 2018.

The UK and the EU are in a difficult week of negotiations ahead of next week's EU Summit. Photo: News Sky

Observers had predicted that the British side would make some small concessions regarding the border issue on the island of Ireland, because after the Conservative Party Congress ended, Theresa May's position was strengthened, so the British Prime Minister could boldly make new proposals.

However, things have not gone as smoothly as expected, with experts even saying that the crucial week of negotiations between the UK and the EU is gradually falling into a deadlock. This comment was made after a British official announced that the country would not be able to reach any agreement with the EU without a mechanism to shape the future bilateral relationship.

Meanwhile, the EU has also firmly stated that it will not continue negotiations unless the UK puts forward proposals on the Irish-Northern Ireland border issue that the EU can accept. The European Commission was scheduled to publish a draft Brexit proposal on October 10.

Next, on October 12, representatives of the 27 EU member states will meet to review progress in Brexit negotiations. On October 15, advisers to the 27 heads of state will meet in Brussels to make final preparations for the EU Summit.

However, plans to publish the draft today have been scrapped. Instead, the remaining 27 EU member states will focus on preparing their own scenarios in case the UK and the EU cannot reach a final Brexit deal.

In the history of the formation and development of the EU, the UK was the first country to decide to leave the bloc, and an unprecedented divorce negotiation after 40 years of being together is of course never easy, especially when the two sides have geographical, historical, political ties...

However, for more than two years, British and EU negotiators have been working hard to reach a Brexit deal that is least painful for both sides. But when it comes time to make concessions, with less than half a year to go before Britain leaves the European Union, developments over the past two days have shown that neither Britain nor the EU is willing to “give in” first, turning the negotiations in this decisive week into a “test of courage” in which each side is determined to wait for the other to be discouraged first.

The chicken and egg story

The biggest sticking point now between the UK and the EU is the trade relationship between the two sides as well as the border issue between the UK's Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland – a member of the EU.

The European Union's top priority is for Britain to make changes to its Brexit proposal, according to which, regardless of the Brexit deal between the two sides, it must ensure the maintenance of an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, preserving the core provision of the 1998 peace treaty after decades of conflict.

Theresa May is taking a tough stance on the EU to ease pressure within the Conservative Party. Photo: PA

With this view, the EU firmly stated that it would not publish any proposals on future trade relations with the UK unless the UK put forward revised proposals on the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, despite reports that the EU had prepared a trade agreement with the UK similar to the bloc's trade agreement with Canada.

Meanwhile, some internal British sources said that the British government has considered some concessions on the Irish border issue. For example, the British government could agree to maintain a different policy for Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK if the Northern Ireland Parliament accepts it, or customs checks on goods between the UK and the Republic of Ireland could be carried out at a point deep inside the UK instead of right at the border.

However, the UK’s offer of these concessions is conditional on the EU publishing a political declaration on the future economic and political partnership between the UK and the EU. In other words, the UK is “pushing the ball” to the EU, arguing that the decisive step is entirely up to the EU’s negotiating team.

The calculations of both the UK and the EU are pushing the Brexit negotiation process into a vicious circle, like the way people often talk about the "chicken" and "egg" story - a story with no way out, with the worst scenario being that the UK will leave the EU without reaching any agreement.

According to analysts, if in the past, the UK was considered the "weaker" side in negotiations with the EU, and it was likely that the country would have to make concessions first to get an agreement with the EU.

But recently, disagreements within British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party are pushing the issue in a different direction. Many members of the Conservative Party, most notably former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, have accused Theresa May's Brexit plan with certain concessions to the EU, which completely goes against the wishes of voters who voted to leave the EU two years ago.

Perhaps the British government is calculating that by appearing as tough as possible with the EU, Theresa May will gain support within her party, reducing pressure on her personally to abandon the Chequers Plan that the cabinet reached in July, and even calling for her to resign.

This reality shows that the remaining time before the EU Summit next week will continue to witness a tense "test of courage" between the two sides. However, according to analysts, no matter how they appear on the surface, both the UK and the EU really do not want a no-deal Brexit scenario, because that would bring negative consequences for both sides.

The issue in the “game” between the UK and the EU now is time. Some analysts predict that the most important agreements will be “saved” by the two sides until the final moments of this week of negotiations, most likely on the last night before the opening of the European Summit next week.