EU and UK: A "guts contest" before the moment of "divorce"

Tough week of negotiations

The European Union and the UK have resumed negotiations since October 8, and agreed to negotiate continuously every day until the EU Summit on October 17 and 18.

According to the plan, EU and UK leaders will try to sign an agreement before this conference based on the rather optimistic comments that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker made last weekend, that "UK and EU are very close to an agreement" and "if not reached in October, then in November". Previously, European Council President Donald Tusk also announced that a Brexit agreement could be reached by the end of 2018.

The UK and the EU are in a difficult week of negotiations ahead of next week's EU Summit. Photo: News Sky

Observers had predicted that the British side would make some small concessions regarding the border issue on the island of Ireland, because after the Conservative Party Congress ended, Theresa May's position was strengthened so the British Prime Minister could boldly make new proposals.

However, things have not gone as smoothly as expected, with experts even saying that the crucial week of negotiations between the UK and the EU is gradually falling into a deadlock. This comment was made after a British official announced that the country would not be able to move forward with any agreement with the EU without a mechanism to shape the future bilateral relationship.

Meanwhile, the EU has also firmly stated that it will not continue negotiations if the UK does not put forward proposals on the issue of the Irish-Northern Ireland border that the EU can accept. The European Commission was supposed to publish a draft on Brexit on October 10.

Next, on October 12, representatives of the 27 EU member states will meet to review progress in Brexit negotiations. On October 15, advisors to the 27 heads of state will meet in Brussels to make final preparations for the EU Summit.

However, plans to publish the draft today have been scrapped. Instead, the remaining 27 EU member states will focus on preparing their own scenarios in case the UK and the EU cannot reach a final Brexit deal.

In the history of the formation and development of the EU, the UK was the first country to decide to leave the bloc, and an unprecedented divorce negotiation after 40 years of being together is of course never easy, especially when the two sides have geographical, historical, political ties...

However, for more than two years, British and EU negotiators have been working hard to reach a Brexit deal that is least painful for both sides. But when it comes time to make concessions, with less than half a year to go before Britain leaves the European common roof, developments in the past two days show that neither Britain nor the EU is willing to "give in" first, turning the negotiations in this decisive week into a "test of courage" in which each side is determined to wait for the other to be discouraged first.

The chicken and the egg story

The biggest sticking point now between the UK and the EU is the trade relationship between the two sides as well as the border issue between Northern Ireland of the UK and the Republic of Ireland – a member of the EU.

The European Union's top priority is for Britain to make changes to its Brexit proposal, according to which any Brexit deal between the two sides must ensure the maintenance of an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, preserving the core provision of the 1998 Peace Treaty after decades of conflict.

Theresa May is taking a tough stance on the EU to reduce pressure within the Conservative Party. Photo: PA

With this view, the EU firmly stated that it would not publish any proposals on future trade relations with the UK unless the UK put forward revised proposals on the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, despite reports that the EU had prepared a trade agreement with the UK similar to the bloc's trade agreement with Canada.

Meanwhile, some internal British sources said that the government has considered some concessions on the Irish border issue. For example, the British government could agree to maintain a different policy for Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK if the Northern Ireland Parliament accepts, or customs checks on goods between the UK and the Republic of Ireland could be carried out at a point deep in the UK instead of right at the border.

However, the condition for the UK to make these concessions is that the EU must publish a political declaration on the future economic and political partnership between the UK and the EU. In other words, the UK is "pushing the ball" to the EU's "foot", claiming that the decisive step is entirely up to the EU's negotiating team.

The calculations of both the UK and the EU are pushing the Brexit negotiation process into a vicious circle, like the way people often talk about the "chicken" and "egg" story - a story with no way out, with the worst-case scenario being that the UK will leave the EU without reaching any agreement.

According to analysts, if in the past, Britain was considered the "weaker" side in negotiations with the EU, and it was likely that this country would have to make concessions first to get an agreement with the EU.

But recently, disagreements within British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party are pushing the issue in a different direction. Many members of the Conservative Party, most notably former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, have accused Theresa May's Brexit plan with certain concessions to the EU, which completely goes against the wishes of voters who voted to leave the EU two years ago.

Perhaps the British government is calculating that, by appearing as tough as possible with the EU, Theresa May will gain support within her party, reducing pressure on her personally to abandon the Chequers Plan that the cabinet reached in July, and even calling for her resignation.

This reality shows that the remaining time before the EU Summit next week will continue to witness a tense "test of courage" between the two sides. However, according to analysts, no matter how they appear on the surface, neither the UK nor the EU really wants a no-deal Brexit scenario, because that would bring negative consequences for both sides.

The issue in the “game” between the UK and the EU now is time. Some analysts predict that the most important agreements will be “saved” by both sides until the final moments of this week of negotiations, most likely on the last night before the opening of the European Summit next week.