EVN warns of power cuts in early 2019

With a shortage of billions of kWh, equal to the average usage of 13 provinces in the Central region, the prospect of severe power shortages is likely to repeat.

Power shortage possible throughout 2019

In a report sent to Deputy Prime Minister Trinh Dinh Dung at the end of November 2018, EVN calculated that the total national electricity demand in the last two months of 2018 was 600 million kWh higher than planned. While the hydropower reservoirs in the Central region, although in flood season, are actually at the dead water level in many reservoirs. The decline in the ability to supply gas for power generation from the Nam Con Son gas system also caused a shortfall of 810 million kWh in gas power output in the last two months of the year.

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According to EVN, to compensate for the electricity shortage of about 2.9 billion kWh, it is necessary to mobilize all existing coal power plants in the last two months of the year. Meanwhile, the total coal shortage from the beginning of October until now is 342,334 tons. According to EVN, if the coal shortage continues, it will be necessary to mobilize more hydropower plants, reducing the water reserve level, affecting power generation in 2019.

Therefore, the group warned that "failure to ensure coal supply will lead to the shutdown of coal-fired thermal power plants, seriously affecting the security of electricity supply, with the possibility of power outages from the first months of 2019". EVN also informed that the failure of hydropower plants to store enough water in 2019, along with the decrease in gas-fired electricity output, will make the possibility of power shortages in the dry season of 2019 very high, and the possibility of power shortages lasting until the end of 2019.

Whose responsibility is it?

Mr. Nguyen Hoang Trung - Deputy General Director of Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (TKV), said that due to high electricity growth in 2018, power plants received more coal than the contract, an increase of 5.4 million tons of coal compared to 2017.

"Many thermal power plants are increasing demand, causing difficulties for TKV," said Mr. Trung, adding that TKV's solution is to increase production plans, maximize inventory, including strategic coal reserves; urgently import over 0.5 million tons of coal of all kinds...

Hai Phong Thermal Power Plant, which is estimated to be short of coal equivalent to about 960 million kWh

According to Mr. Trung, one of the reasons why EVN's coal-fired thermal power plants are facing difficulties is that so far only 9 long-term coal purchase contracts have been signed. For example, in 2018, coal for electricity is expected to increase by 5.4 million tons compared to the previous year, so if coal-fired power plants reduce their mobilization, it will cause large inventories for TKV. Therefore, Mr. Trung believes that there needs to be a commitment from power plants to receive enough coal, even in the case of having to reduce output, so that TKV can be proactive.

Through discussion, an EVN representative said that in addition to 9 long-term contracts on coal supply, the two sides are currently continuing negotiations. However, some negotiations have not reached an agreement because EVN requires good coal quality and sufficient quantity, but TKV cannot meet the requirements, so it has not been signed.

Regarding the recent story that TKV is proposing to increase the selling price of coal for electricity by 5%, Mr. Trung said that the current selling price of coal for electricity producers is lower than the market price, much lower than the price of imported coal.

Faced with the above "complicated" situation between two large enterprises, the National Power System Control Center (A0) said that it has carefully reviewed and calculated the Northern power grid to increase purchases from China to compensate for the shortage due to the lack of coal in coal-fired thermal power plants. However, purchasing electricity from China is also difficult because this purchase depends on technical conditions to separate the power transmission grid area.