World oil prices at record low in the past 2 years
World oil prices plummeted sharply at the end of the week, falling by 7% and falling to the lowest level in more than 2 years. The main reason came from China's announcement to impose a 34% tax on all goods imported from the US.
Last week, Brent crude oil closed at $65.58 per barrel, down $4.56 (6.5%). US WTI crude oil fell $4.96, or 7.4%, to $61.99 per barrel.
During the session, Brent fell to a low of $64.03, while WTI hit a bottom of $60.45 – its lowest level in the past four years.
For the week, Brent fell 10.9%, its biggest weekly drop in 18 months. WTI lost 10.6%, its biggest weekly loss in two years.
Global commodity markets fell across the board. Not only oil, but also natural gas, soybeans and gold were under heavy selling pressure. International stock indexes also plunged. JPMorgan Bank forecasts the possibility of a global recession by the end of this year has increased to 60%, compared to the previous 40%.
Scott Shelton, an expert from United ICAP, believes that oil prices may be returning to a reasonable price range in the current context. He predicts that WTI oil may fall to the range of 55 to below 60 USD/barrel in the short term if demand continues to weaken.
The downward pressure on oil prices also comes from the decision of OPEC+ when this group suddenly raised the plan to increase production from 135,000 barrels/day to 411,000 barrels/day since May. This makes the market worried about excess supply in the context of unclear demand.
Another factor contributing to the decline in oil prices was a decision by a Russian court to allow oil exports from Kazakhstan to continue via Black Sea ports, helping to avoid the risk of a decline in supply from the region.
Although crude oil and refined products are exempt from tariffs under President Trump's new policy, the risk of inflation and slower growth due to trade policy remains a pressure factor.
Goldman Sachs has cut its December 2025 Brent and WTI price forecasts by $5 each to $66 and $62 a barrel, respectively. The bank said oil price risks remain tilted to the downside, especially in 2026, due to the risk of recession and increased supply from OPEC+.
HSBC also reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 from 1 million barrels per day to 0.9 million barrels per day due to the impact of tax policies and increased output from OPEC+.
Hedge funds continued to increase their net long positions in US crude oil in the week ending April 1, according to the latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, if the current trend continues, the oil market could remain under pressure in the coming weeks.
