Fertilizer prices are expected to rise sharply next month.

World oil prices continue to rise.

Fuel pricesThe global market is trending upwards today, August 12th. Brent crude is approaching $87 per barrel, while WTI crude has surpassed $83 per barrel.

According to analysts, oil prices are rising thanks to optimistic demand forecasts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

On August 10th, in its monthly report, OPEC expressed expectations that the oil market would perform well for the remainder of the year.

OPEC recently predicted that global oil demand will increase by 2.44 million barrels per day this year and by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024.

Meanwhile, on August 11, the IEA warned that global oil inventories are likely to fall sharply for the remainder of the year, potentially pushing oil prices even higher.

In addition, oil prices are being supported by Saudi Arabia and Russia extending their production cuts, along with concerns about supply amid the potential for conflict between Russia and Ukraine to disrupt Russian oil shipments in the Black Sea region.

Coffee prices are falling.

PricecoffeedomesticAugust 12, 2023In the Central Highlands provinces, prices continued to decline slightly compared to previous trading sessions, down 100 VND/kg compared to August 11th; fluctuating between 66,900 and 67,500 VND/kg, with the highest price at 67,700 VND/kg.

Over the weekend, prices for both coffee commodities weakened simultaneously. At closing, Arabica prices fell for the third consecutive session to $3,525 per ton. Fundamental information indicating a positive shift in supply pressure exerted downward pressure on prices. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe) released positive July coffee export data, boosting exports in the country. Arabica coffee exports, which account for the majority of Brazil's exports, increased by 6.5% compared to the same month last year, reaching 2.19 million bags.

Strong coffee export figures from Brazil in July also put pressure on Robusta prices, causing them to fall by 0.49% yesterday. According to Cecafe, Brazil's Robusta coffee exports increased by 245.4% to 505,153 bags, marking the best Robusta export month since September 2020. This helped alleviate concerns about securing supply amidst coffee shortages in Vietnam.

The latest figures from the General Department of Vietnam Customs show that coffee exports in July reached 108,872 tons, a sharp decrease of 22.6% compared to the previous month. For the first seven months of this year, coffee exports nationwide decreased by 3.4% compared to the same period last year, reaching 1,116,804 tons.

Fertilizer prices are expected to rise sharply next month.

Presentlyfertilizer pricesDomestic prices have shown a slight increase, following global prices. This comes amidst a continuous rise in global urea prices since mid-June.

The latest report from Argus and Fertecon (reputable international market forecasting and analysis companies) shows that world urea prices have been continuously increasing since mid-June, with a rise of 24-50% (depending on the market). Currently, world urea prices have risen to levels equivalent to those in January-February 2023.

In China, the ex-factory price of urea in early August increased by 7-12% compared to the last week of July, reaching 2453-2625 yuan/ton. For exports, the price of granular and granular urea both increased by 35-55 USD/ton compared to the middle week of July.

With the sharp increase in urea prices, the prices of other key fertilizers such as potassium, DAP, MOP, and NPK have also risen in the global market.

In Vietnam, from the end of July and the beginning of August, domestic fertilizer manufacturers announced price adjustments, increasing prices in line with global price trends, continuing the upward trend from around mid-July until now.

Regarding the fertilizer market outlook, Mr. Le Trong Phuc, General Director of Hanoi Chemical and Technology Joint Stock Company (Hacheco), stated that domestic fertilizer prices have been and are trending upwards in line with global prices. Mr. Phuc also noted that, conventionally, the three months of July, August, and September are the low season for fertilizers because the summer-autumn crop has passed and the winter-spring crop has not yet begun. Therefore, the domestic fertilizer market is usually quiet during this period. However, on the global market, Russia and Ukraine are currently promoting grain exports. If an agreement is reached, grain prices could increase. In addition, rice prices on the world market have also risen following India's export restrictions. All these factors will contribute to an increase in fertilizer prices globally and in Vietnam.

Mr. Phuc also noted that during the peak planting season in September and October (when the North enters the winter and spring planting seasons - the time of year with the highest fertilizer consumption), the demand for fertilizer will increase significantly. However, this increase will only be slight and will not create a "frenzy" like in 2021 and 2022.