Fertilizer prices expected to rise sharply next month

World oil prices continue to rise

Gasoline pricesThe world today, August 12, is on an upward trend. Brent oil price is approaching 87 USD/barrel, WTI oil price is above 83 USD/barrel.

According to analysts, oil prices rose thanks to optimistic demand forecasts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

On August 10, in its monthly report, OPEC expected the oil market to perform well in the remaining months of the year.

OPEC recently predicted that world oil demand will increase by 2.44 million barrels per day this year and increase by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024.

Meanwhile, the IEA warned on August 11 that global oil inventories are likely to fall sharply during the rest of this year, which could push oil prices even higher.

Oil prices are also being supported by Saudi Arabia and Russia extending production cuts and supply concerns over the possibility of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine disrupting Russian oil shipments in the Black Sea region.

Coffee prices fall

PricecoffeedomesticAugust 12, 2023, in the Central Highlands provinces, continued to decrease slightly compared to previous trading sessions, down 100 VND/kg compared to August 11; fluctuating from 66,900 to 67,500 VND/kg, the highest at 67,700 VND/kg.

At the end of the week, the prices of two coffee products simultaneously weakened. At the close, Arabica prices fell for the third consecutive session to 3,525 USD/ton. Basic information showed that the supply was shifting in a positive direction, putting pressure on prices to return to a downward trend. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe) announced positive coffee export data for July, boosting exports in this country. Arabica coffee exports, which account for the majority of Brazil's exports, increased by 6.5% compared to the same month last year, reaching 2.19 million bags.

Strong coffee export figures in July from Brazil also put pressure on Robusta prices, which fell 0.49% in yesterday's session. Accordingly, Brazil's Robusta coffee exports increased 245.4% to 505,153 bags, marking the best month of Robusta exports since September 2020, Cecafe said. This helped ease concerns about securing supplies amid coffee shortages in Vietnam.

The latest data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that Vietnam's coffee exports last July reached 108,872 tons, down sharply by 22.6% compared to the previous month. In the first 7 months of this year, the country's coffee exports decreased by 3.4% compared to the same period last year, reaching 1,116,804 tons.

Fertilizer prices will increase sharply next month

Presentlyfertilizer priceDomestic prices have shown signs of a slight increase following world prices. In the context of world urea prices continuously increasing since mid-June until now.

The latest reports from Argus and Fertecon (prestigious international market forecasting and analysis companies) show that world urea prices have been increasing continuously since mid-June until now with an increase of 24-50% (depending on the market). Currently, world urea prices have increased to the same level as in January-February 2023.

In China, ex-factory prices of urea in early August increased by 7-12% compared to the last week of July to 2,453-2,625 yuan/ton. For export, both opaque and clear urea prices increased by 35-55 USD/ton compared to the middle week of July.

With the sharp increase in urea prices, prices of other key fertilizers such as Potassium, DAP, MOP, NPK in the world market have all increased.

In Vietnam, since late July and early August, domestic fertilizer factories have announced price adjustments to follow the world price trend, continuing the continuous increase from mid-July until now.

Commenting on the fertilizer market in the coming time, Mr. Le Trong Phuc, General Director of Hanoi Chemical and Technology Joint Stock Company (Hacheco), said that domestic fertilizer prices have been increasing following world prices. Mr. Phuc also said that, according to tradition, the three months of July, August, and September every year are the low season for fertilizers because the Summer-Autumn crop has passed and the Winter-Spring crop has not yet arrived. Therefore, the domestic fertilizer market is usually quiet at this time every year. However, in the world market, Russia and Ukraine are currently promoting grain exports. If this agreement is reached, grain prices may increase. In addition, rice prices in the world market have also increased after India's export restrictions. All of these factors will impact fertilizer prices to increase globally and in Vietnam.

Mr. Phuc also commented that when the peak crop season comes in September and October (the North will enter the Winter-Spring crop - the time of the year when fertilizer consumption is the highest), the demand for fertilizer will increase. However, this increase is only a slight increase, unable to create a "fever" like the past two years 2021 and 2022.