Gasoline price today October 31, 2024: Domestic price is expected to decrease this afternoon

World oil prices

On the morning of October 31 (Vietnam time), WTI oil price on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by more than 0.5%, while Brent oil price remained at 72.55 USD/barrel.

According to experts, in the trading session on October 30, oil prices increased by more than 2% due to data showing that US crude oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly decreased, along with information that OPEC+ may delay plans to increase oil production.

Specifically, Brent oil price increased by 1.43 USD (equivalent to 2.01%) to 72.55 USD/barrel, while WTI increased by 1.4 USD (equivalent to 2.08%) to 68.61 USD/barrel.

U.S. gasoline inventories fell 2.7 million barrels to a two-year low in the week to October 25, thanks to higher demand, while crude inventories also fell 500,000 barrels due to lower imports, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia fell to their lowest level since January 2021, falling to 13,000 barrels per day (bpd), down 20,000 bpd from the previous week. The EIA also recorded declines in imports from Canada, Iraq, Colombia and Brazil.

A decline in gasoline inventories amid high demand was the main factor supporting oil prices. Lower imports also helped crude inventories draw down slightly, said analyst Matt Smith of Kpler.

On the supply side, OPEC+ may postpone its planned oil production increase in December due to concerns about weak demand and rising supply. According to Harry Tchilinguirian, Director of Research at Onyx Capital Group, OPEC+ will decide whether to cancel the production cuts based on market conditions. It is not surprising that the organization reconsiders the timing of the production increase, especially when the macroeconomic situation, especially in China, is weakening, affecting the forecast for global demand growth.

OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 180,000 barrels a day in December, after already cutting 5.86 million barrels a day, or about 5.7% of global demand. A decision to postpone the increase could come next week, when OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1 to discuss its next policy.

Domestic gasoline prices

Today's domestic gasoline prices, according to the joint adjustment of the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance, have slightly decreased from 30 VND to 70 VND/liter.

Specifically:

- Retail price of RON 95-III gasoline is at VND 20,890/liter;

- Retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline is at 19,690 VND/liter;

- Retail diesel price at 18,050 VND/liter;

- Retail price of kerosene is at 18,570 VND/liter.

- Mazut retails at 16,229 VND/kg.

At 3:00 p.m. this afternoon, October 31, domestic gasoline prices will be adjusted according to new regulations in Decree 80/2023/ND-CP amending previous decrees on gasoline trading.

According to the world oil price trend, businesses in the industry predict that domestic oil prices are likely to decrease during this adjustment period.

Specifically, without the impact from the Price Stabilization Fund, gasoline prices could decrease by 330 to 480 VND/liter, while diesel could decrease by 100 to 160 VND/liter.

If the Price Stabilization Fund is used, the reduction may be less or remain the same.

If this forecast is correct, this will be the third consecutive reduction in gasoline prices, bringing domestic gasoline prices to their lowest level in more than 3 years, equivalent to June 2021. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have increased 20 times and decreased 22 times, while diesel has increased 18 times and decreased 23 times.

Currently, the Price Stabilization Fund of some large petroleum enterprises still has a large balance, thanks to not using the fund in many recent operating periods. As of the end of the second quarter, the fund balance was 6,061 billion VND, a slight decrease of 18 billion VND compared to the previous quarter and the 5th consecutive quarter of decrease.

Of these, the Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) - an enterprise that accounts for about 50% of the retail gasoline market share - has a gasoline price stabilization fund of up to VND3,079 billion.

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI)'s gasoline price forecast model shows that the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by about VND190 (1%) to VND19,500/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by VND368 (1.8%) to VND20,522/liter.

On the contrary, oil prices are likely to increase slightly. Diesel is forecast to increase by 1% to VND18,224/liter. Kerosene may increase by 2.5% to VND19,028/liter. Fuel oil is likely to increase by 2.4% to VND16,610/kg.

Forecasts also show that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will likely not set aside or spend the petrol price stabilization fund this period.