So in less than a week, North Korea has conducted two consecutive missile tests, and most likely, this action will be repeated until after the US-South Korea military exercise ends.

North Korea tested two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast on the morning of July 31. Photo: Reuters

North Korea's "double" message

North Korea never tests missiles without a message - that has been proven many times in the past. Of course, the two missile tests on July 25 and 31 will be no exception with missiles believed to be new-generation weapons, with similar characteristics to the Iskander tactical ballistic missile developed by Russia.

North Korea has also not been “secretive” about the warning it wants to send to the US and South Korea as the two countries prepare to conduct a new military exercise called Allied to replace the previous large annual exercises Foal Eagle and Key Resolve. Although the Allied exercise is much smaller in scale than Foal Eagle and Key Resolve, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un still considers it a violation of the commitment that US President Donald Trump made in June 2018 in Singapore.

Calling the Allied drills “serious and grand,” Kim Jong-un considered them a manifestation of a hostile policy toward North Korea, and of course, would receive a worthy response from this country. Testing missiles before, during, and after the US-South Korea drills is a very familiar reaction from North Korea. Therefore, it is not out of the question that, after the missile test on July 31, North Korea will repeat this action in parallel with the Allied drills.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un supervises a missile test. Photo: KCNA

But according to analysts, in addition to “responding appropriately” to the US-South Korea military exercises as North Korea put it, the country also wants to send another message to the US in the context of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s tour of Asia and possibly meeting with his North Korean counterpart Ri Yong Ho on the sidelines of the expanded Southeast Asia security forum in Bangkok, Thailand. So far, neither side has officially confirmed the meeting, but if it takes place, this will be the first time the two sides have had a high-level meeting since US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shook hands in a friendly manner at the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas last month.

For North Korea, the friendly handshakes and flattering words praising the good personal relationship that US President Donald Trump has for Mr. Kim Jong-un are probably not enough, but North Korea needs more substantial steps. North Korea's recent missile tests have been interpreted by many as the country's impatience with the US's "wasting time" tactic of not promoting substantive negotiations, with the great desire to ease sanctions against the North Korean economy. Therefore, it is possible that North Korea wants to pressure Mr. Mike Pompeo to bring some positive signals to Thailand if the meeting between the two countries' foreign ministers takes place.

Many calculated moves

After North Korea conducted consecutive missile tests, there were many concerns about the possibility of "increasing the temperature" on the Korean peninsula, about the risk that the temporary achievements achieved over the past year could be eroded. But contrary to the concerns of the international community, the US - the "main player" in the "Korean chess game" - appeared very calm.

When North Korea tested a missile on July 25, US President Donald Trump took the initiative to calm the situation by saying that he was not worried because North Korea “only tested short-range missiles” - something many other countries do quite regularly, and that the missile test launches did not violate the commitments that North Korea had made and did not pose a threat to the United States. When the missile test on July 31 was launched, the US side only announced that it would “continue to monitor”, and notably, Mr. Donald Trump just sent Mr. Kim Jong-un photos taken at the Demilitarized Zone last month as a reminder of the good personal relationship between the two leaders.

Although North Korea is "impatient" with the US about the stagnation in bilateral negotiations, analysts say that neither the US nor North Korea wants to destroy the achievements that have been achieved up to this point. The US conducting military exercises with South Korea, or North Korea testing missiles in response, are considered more domestic steps by both sides. For President Donald Trump, he is in dire need of "scoring points" before the important election next year. Maintaining a relatively peaceful atmosphere on the Korean peninsula for more than a year is considered an achievement of his first term.

However, he still needs to convince the hardliners - who always think that the US has been too lenient with North Korea in the past. Therefore, a moderate-scale exercise, not too expensive, not too "aggressive" with North Korea is an acceptable solution. As long as North Korea does not test long-range ballistic missiles or nuclear tests, everything will go smoothly as Donald Trump calculated.

The personal relationship between the two leaders remains an important factor in keeping the situation on the Korean peninsula temporarily stable. Photo: ABC News

On the North Korean side, two high-level meetings with President Donald Trump have given Kim Jong-un a lot of prestige, and a third meeting – if it happens – is widely supported among the country’s officials. So testing short-range missiles is enough to make North Korea comply with the principle of “reciprocity”, to strengthen the morale of North Korean military forces about their commitment to defend the country against security threats, and to satisfy the demands of hardliners who have been urging the North Korean leader to pursue a new approach if the US does not ease sanctions.

The short-range missile tests are also a calculation by North Korea to avoid pushing the US administration into an uncontrollable reaction. Mr. Kim Jong-un knows that if there are too many missile tests with too long ranges, US “hawk” officials will force President Donald Trump to reverse the current negotiation process and take really tough steps.

With the calculations of both sides, analysts believe that the situation on the Korean peninsula cannot change for the worse in the near future. The US and South Korea may still conduct military exercises, North Korea may still test missiles, but at the same time there will still be diplomatic efforts from both sides to not close the door to negotiations, there is even no reason to rule out the possibility of a third US-North Korea summit in the near future.