Armenia – Azerbaijan conflict: Small spark, big risk

(Baonghean) - The world has witnessed another "hot spot" when conflict broke out in the border area between Armenia andAzerbaijancausing dozens of deaths. The conflict is just a “spark” compared to other “fire pots” in the world, but it contains a great risk of instability for the entire Central Asia, Middle East and Caucasus region.

Armenia and Azerbaijan. Photo: Internet.

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Starting from the night of April 1, new clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan continued on April 2 and April 3, despite many world leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, co-chair of the Minsk Group of the OSCE, etc. calling for an immediate ceasefire.

Armenia claims that Azerbaijani forces launched a massive attack on the Nagorno-Karabakh border, using tanks, artillery and helicopters. Azerbaijan denies this and says it was only responding to an attack from Armenia.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not without reason or surprise. The two countries have been in a state of conflict and rivalry for over 20 years. The Nagorno-Karabakh border region is home to a majority of Armenians, but was annexed by Azerbaijan during the former Soviet Union.

Shortly before the official collapse of the Soviet Union, the Nagorno-Karabakh Parliament held a referendum on December 10, 1991. Despite being boycotted by the Azerbaijani community, the Armenian majority voted overwhelmingly in favor, and the region declared independence from Azerbaijan. Armenian forces, with the support of the Yerevan government, then took control of the region, after a war that killed 30,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands, mostly Azerbaijanis.

The war ended with a ceasefire in 1994, but it did not resolve the issue of the territory. The current conflict is seen as the “last straw” in the tense relationship between the two countries.

Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the most intense since 1994. Photo Reuters.

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The most questionable thing now is whether there is a third party influencing the "tense" relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan? According to Deputy Speaker of the State Duma (Lower House) of Russia, Mr. Sergei Zheleznyak, there is definitely a "third force" behind the developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

According to him, “that force continues to fan the flames of war in the Middle East, Central Asia and the Caucasus region. That force is not satisfied with the success of Russia and our allies in the peacekeeping and counter-terrorism process in Syria, so it seeks to heat up the long-standing conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.”

Meanwhile, the spokesman for the President of the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh also stated that the most likely possibility is that the Erdogan government was involved in causing the conflict to flare up in this region.

It is unclear whether this is true or not, but Türkiye seems to want to “interfere” in the current instability in Central Asia. Immediately after the conflict broke out in the early morning of April 2, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had a phone call with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev to “share the loss” with the relatives of the dead Azerbaijani soldiers and affirmed that “we will always stand by the Azerbaijani people”. Türkiye’s support for Azerbaijan is clearly a challenge to Russia, which has long supported Armenia.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan affirmed his support for Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia. Photo: AP.

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At present, Russia-Türkiye relations have fallen to the bottom. Therefore, if the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh really involves a third party, the risk of a large-scale war is inevitable.

Tensions are now rising as Azerbaijan has announced it will resolve the dispute militarily. For Azerbaijan, the determination to retake Nagorno-Karabakh has been simmering for more than a decade, especially as the country has sharply increased its defense spending thanks to its huge revenues from oil and gas exports. Azerbaijan’s defense budget has grown at a dizzying pace, from $175 million when President Ilham Aliyev took office in 2004 to $3.1 billion in 2011.

If Nagorno-Karabakh really has to be resolved by military means, the small “spark” will easily flare up into a big “fire”. Other major countries will get involved, causing this region to fall into unpredictable events. And even more dangerous is the risk of turning this place into a fertile ground for extremist terrorist groups, typically the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS).

In fact, Azerbaijan and Armenia are not far from the “headquarters” of IS. Therefore, if instability here creates conditions for terrorism to flourish, Central Asia, the North Caucasus and then Russian territory will become the areas where IS hideouts are located. Then the situation will become much worse.

Returning to the story between Azerbaijan and Armenia, analysts have long proposed a plan that both sides could accept as a “trade-off” to achieve peace. Accordingly, Armenia would receive Karabakh and a corridor connecting it, while Azerbaijan would be returned the surrounding steppe. However, the trade-off would not be easy if it was not simply a territorial story but contained the calculations of the forces behind it.

Thanh Huyen