Scientists warn Wuhan if lockdown is eased too soon

Wuhan City announced that it will lift the lockdown on April 8. Photo: Business Insider

According to research by scientists, relaxing “social distancing” measures and closing schools in Wuhan too early could trigger a new outbreak of Covid-19, with the number of infections peaking for a second time around the end of this year.

If the measures are relaxed in March, the second peak will be reached in August, if the measures are postponed to April, the second peak will be reached in October. The study by scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK, is also a warning to other countries that, with any Covid-19 response strategy, it is difficult to quickly remove the imposed lockdown measures.

The study used mathematical models to analyze data on the spread of Covid-19 in Wuhan and other parts of China, focusing on predicting different scenarios as Wuhan prepares to ease the lockdown that has been in place since mid-January.

The study found that Wuhan’s “unprecedented” lockdown measures were a key factor in the city’s successful containment of the outbreak. However, scientists warned that Wuhan must be cautious when lifting the lockdown, and that the best way to do so would be to gradually ease restrictions.

Professor Yang Liu, a member of the research team, said: “The general conclusion of this study can be applied in any country. Social distancing is a very effective measure and needs to be carefully considered before lifting it, to avoid a new wave of infections when workers return to work and students return to school. A second wave coming too soon could overload the health system, which has been overwhelmed by the first wave.”

The findings are in line with previous research published by the UK government’s scientific advisory group, which said social distancing measures would need to be in place for at least half a year to be effective and would need to be tightened periodically to control further outbreaks.