Two scenarios for the outcome of the Trump-Kim meeting

While the US and North Korea are making urgent moves to prepare for the summit between President Trump and leader Kim Jong-un on June 12 in Singapore,Lincoln Bloomfield, former national security advisor under three US presidentsRonald Reagan,GeorgeBush Sr. andBush Jr. expressed optimism about future prospects when speaking withVnExpress.

"If in the past, exchanges between Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un's father, and the US were very limited, with nothing else but the nuclear issue, the current discussions between Pyongyang and Washington are completely different, leaving open the opportunity for North Korea to have an open economy and peace on the peninsula,"Bloomfield said.

US President TrumpMay 18 statedThe US is willing to help North Korea follow the path of economic development like South Korea, becoming richer if Pyongyang denuclearizes.The US President also previously declared that the Korean War would end, expressing joy at the results of the first meeting between Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in in late April.

On May 27, Trump announced on Twitter that "I truly believe North Korea has brilliant potential and will one day be a great economic and financial Nation. Kim Jong-un agrees with me on this. It will happen."

Faced with concerns about US President Trump's constant changes, declaring the cancellation of the meeting with Kim Jong-un and then claiming that the meeting between the two sides could still take place,Bloomfield, currently Director of the Center for ResearchStimson, US, said that in reality it was not like that. Trump said that North Korea, with its negative tone, showed that they were not serious about promoting the summit as planned.

"Trump canceled the meeting because he did not want the US president to fall into such a confused state, but he also sent a message that if the meeting took place, it needed to be carried out thoroughly."Bloomfield said.

Explaining America's caution with North Korea, DirectorCenterStimson said many Americans do not know much about Kim Jong-un, their assumptions are influenced by the image of his father, Kim Jong-Il. Meanwhile, North Korea underKim Jong-Il has twice broken his promise to the United States to abandon his nuclear program. Those were meetings in 1994 and 2005.Moreover, America has to deal with many "burdens in history" so Americans "are not easily optimistic".

On Kim Jong-un's side,Bloomfield said there were signs that he might be "a very different person from his father."Kim Jong-Il and Kim Il-Sung". Under Kim Jong-un's rule, North Korea became less closed and more open about information to the world. They sent a delegation to the Winter Olympics in South Korea and Kim Jong-un had two summits with South Korean President Moon.

Admitting he did not understand Kim Jong-un's determination to meet Trump, heBloomfield speculated that North Korean leaders may perceive the US president as eager to reach a deal based on personal relationships between leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

"This is how Trump got the deal, Kim is interested in that and wants to see if the two can reach a strategic understanding for the future,"Bloomfield said. He added that this is a very important opportunity for Kim Jong-un.

First scenario of the meeting outcome, if Trump and Kim meet in Singapore as planned, isNorth Korea did not make serious commitments, leading to no one in the US daring to trust Pyongyang for quite a while. The reason was that the US was too disappointed when North Korea did not keep its word twice in 1994 and 2005, when Kim Jong-Il met with the US.

"Let's wait and see if Kim Jong-un is serious about the prospects in North Korea,"Bloomfield said Pyongyang needs a credible and comprehensive commitment in exchange for Washington's support in helping North Korea open up and develop its economy.The US wants North Korea to no longer see it as an enemy, and for peace on the peninsula, both sides need a diplomatic breakthrough. The two countries have a lot of work to do in the process of reaching a strategic understanding.

Second scenarioNorth Korea and the US reached a nuclear deal as expected. Then, to ensure the US does not "go back on the table" when Trump's presidential term ends,The US Congress could ratify it as a Treaty (which would bring it into compliance with international law), or pass legislation to formalize the US commitment if North Korea fulfills its obligations.

Bloomfield explained that the reason Trump was able to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal was because the Obama administration did not formalize it in the US Congress, it was simply an executive commitment by the President.