Consequences if Sino-Indian border war breaks out

A war between China and India could cause severe damage to both countries and have a major impact on the global economy.

Chinese and Indian soldiers clash at the border.

China's Global Times recently warned of an "all-out confrontation" if India does not withdraw its troops from the Doklam plateau, a disputed territory between China and Bhutan. Observers say a border war between the two countries like the one in 1962 is unlikely to repeat itself, as the consequences would be catastrophic.according toNational Interest.

According to military expert Kyle Mizokami, in case an incident arises in the disputed border area between the two countries that is not well controlled and causes conflict, the two countries' militarieswill limit fighting to conventional weapons only, notadvocates a preemptive nuclear strike because it would be a devastating scenario for both sides.

Like all modern wars, a Sino-Indian war would be fought on land, at sea, and in the air. The rugged mountainous terrain of the land border would severely limit the use of infantry equipment, while the air war would be the most damaging. The only trump card that India has an advantage in is a naval war, which would have serious consequences for the Chinese economy.

When conflict breaks out, both countries will mobilize huge air forces, making the nature of the war very different from the incident in 1962. Both New Delhi and Beijing possess large tactical aircraft forces capable of performing many missions on the battlefield. Chinese air force units in the Lanzhou strategic area will attack Punjab, Himchal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, while fighters from the Chengdu strategic area will attack the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.

The Lanzhou strategic area possesses a large number of J-11 and J-11B fighters, along with two regiments of H-6 strategic bombers and many J-7 and J-8 interceptors. The lack of a forward base in Xinjiang means that the Lanzhou strategic area is only capable of conducting limited air strikes against northern India. Meanwhile, the Chengdu strategic area possesses the advanced J-11A and J-10 fighters, but has few military airfields in the Tibet region near the Indian border.

China could also deploy its strategic missile force, with 2,000 DF-11, DF-15, and DF-21 ballistic missiles, close to the border with India. Deploying these missile units to the western border would allow China to threaten a series of strategic targets of the enemy, but would leave its entire eastern flank facing the sea exposed.

China may rely heavily on its strategic missile force. Photo: Arms Control Wonk.

Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force has the ability to dominate and control airspace better than its opponent. Its fleet of 230 Su-30MKI multirole fighters, 69 MiG-29 fighters and a series of Mirage 2000 fighters are superior to Chinese aircraft, at least until the J-20 stealth fighter reaches operational capability.

India has enough fighter jets to fight a two-front war, in case the Pakistani air force steps in to support China. New Delhi also deploys several Akash medium-range air defense systems to protect air bases and high-value targets.

In the short term, India can confidently deal with the Chinese air force, but it has no way to stop the Chinese cruise missile attack. Half of northern India is within range of Chinese missile units in Xinjiang and Tibet. New Delhi has not deployed an effective ballistic missile defense system, nor is it capable of destroying enemy missile launchers.

Infantry will not play a major role in this war. The border between the two countries is a rugged mountain range, plateau, with no transport infrastructure, making it difficult for mechanized infantry to deploy. Large-scale infantry attacks are easily stopped by artillery. Both sides will try to hold each other off on land and fight for small areas.

The India-China conflict is likely to be resolved at sea. Control of the Indian Ocean gives India a stranglehold on China. Indian submarines and surface warships can easily cut off the trade routes between China and Europe, the Middle East and Africa. It would take the Chinese navy at least a week to mobilize enough forces to break the blockade. This would be difficult given that Chinese warships must operate in the vast Indian Ocean, far from their mainland logistical bases.

An Indian maritime blockade would force Chinese shipping to divert to the Western Pacific, where they would be vulnerable to Australian, Japanese and US navies.

China imports 87% of its oil needs, mainly from the Middle East and Africa. Its strategic oil reserves are only enough to last about 77 days, forcing Beijing to find a way to end the war quickly.

The Indian Navy could cut off China’s seaborne oil supply. Photo: Jagruk Bharat.

A Sino-Indian war would be short-lived, but could have serious consequences for the global economy. "This could be a factor that pushes the two countries to find a dialogue solution to resolve the crisis to avoid war," Mizokami emphasized.

According to VNE