Has peace called Nagorno-Karabakh?

"Neither win nor lose"

The New York Times reported on November 10 that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had officially agreed to sign a settlement document brokered by Russia the day before to put an end to the conflict.The war is taking place in Nagorno-Karabakh.This would mean Armenia giving up disputed territories and bowing to many other demands and requests, but perhaps this is the most feasible option in the context of Mr. Pashinyan facing defeat on the battlefield.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the recent settlement was a very difficult decision for him and all the people. Photo: PAN

According to the agreement signed between this leader with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the Armenian army will withdraw from the Nagorno-Karabakh region and will be “replaced” by Russian peacekeeping forces. In addition, according to the agreement, the warring parties will have to stop fighting and prepare for the entry of the blue berets. Thus, “third time is the charm”, after the collapse of three fragile ceasefires negotiated by Russia, France and the United States, finally a more positive signal has appeared for this much-discussed dispute.

Some commentators say the agreement reached on November 9 can be seen as a large-scale redrawing of the security map of the South Caucasus, a sensitive and volatile region wedged between Türkiye, Russia and Iran. The arrangement also affirms the role and position in the region of an increasingly assertive Türkiye, with its stance supporting Azerbaijan in the war that began in September.

In a statement posted on social media announcing the new agreement, Mr. Pashinyan said: “I have made a very difficult decision for myself and for all of us. This is not a victory, but it is not a defeat either.” In fact, this agreement ends a quarter of a century of Armenian military control over the remote, mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh. And now Russia will stand guard over this border.

Nagorno-Karabakh region. Graphic: RFE/RL

Object returned to original owner?

It should be reiterated,Nagorno-Karabakh regionis populated mostly by ethnic Armenians, but it lies within Azerbaijan’s Soviet-era borders and declared independence before the Soviet Union collapsed. Now, for Azerbaijanis, the proposed settlement offers the prospect of at least some of the hundreds of thousands displaced by the war of separation that ended in 1994, which ended in a twist of fate: with a ceasefire that was seen as a disaster but inevitable for Azerbaijan after Armenian victories.

The new deal, Putin said, would require both Armenian and Azerbaijani forces to stop at their current positions. That cemented Azerbaijan’s capture of the strategic town of Shusha, known locally as Shushi, or Armenian for its Armenians. It is the second-largest town in the region and less than 10 kilometers from the breakaway capital of Stepanakert.

Armenia also lost control of the supply route that brought military supplies to the mountainous region, and cutting this route would also destroy the Armenian defense forces' hope of continuing to hold out there if the fighting continued.

A crowd stormed the government building in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, after Mr Pashinyan's announcement. Photo: AP

“I made this decision as a result of a deep analysis of the military situation,” Pashinyan wrote. The leader said the agreement was “the best solution in the current situation.” Hours after his announcement, protests broke out in the Armenian capital, Yerevan. A group of people broke into the government building and removed Pashinyan’s nameplate from the door of the prime minister’s office to express their anger and dissatisfaction.

For the past 25 years, the separatist government in Nagorno-Karabakh has held power over seven occupied districts of Azerbaijan. These are sparsely populated areas, with abandoned villages and badly damaged stone houses. Armenia has repeatedly rejected UN resolutions calling for the return of the people, perhaps because it believes that holding them would mean holding a military advantage, so it has so far flatly said “no” to any arrangement that would allow the people to return.

But now, with the agreement reached earlier this week, Azerbaijan has gotten what it has sought in negotiations for years, including, of course, the return of those displaced. In addition towithdraw troops from the areaArmenia also had to agree to relinquish control of small ethnic Armenian enclaves inside Azerbaijan but outside Nagorno-Karabakh; open a transport corridor for Azerbaijan to travel through Armenia to the Azerbaijani region of Nakhichevan; and allow the United Nations to oversee the repatriation of people left homeless by the war.

Ethnic Armenian forces in Upper Karabakh resist an attack by the Azerbaijani army. Photo: Armenian Ministry of Defense

As for the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital Stepanakert, although it was saved from what seemed like an imminent military assault, it will now have to rely on Russian peacekeepers to keep it safe. The “blue berets” will be deployed there for five years and will also guard the access route through a mountain pass called the Lachin Corridor, along with a buffer zone of about 5 km along it. Furthermore, having lost control of Shusha/Shushi, Armenia was forced to accept the agreement’s requirement that a new access road be built through the town, now in Azerbaijan’s hands. If realized, this will clearly be another major loss, another blow to the Armenian “mission” in Nagorno-Karabakh.