Has peace called Nagorno-Karabakh?

"Neither win nor lose"

The New York Times reported on November 10 that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had officially agreed to sign a settlement document brokered by Russia the day before to put an end to the conflict.The war is taking place in Nagorno-Karabakh.This would mean Armenia giving up disputed territories and bowing to many other demands and demands, but perhaps this is the most feasible option in the context of Mr. Pashinyan facing defeat on the battlefield.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the recent settlement was a very difficult decision for him and all the people. Photo: PAN

According to the agreement signed between this leader and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the Armenian army will withdraw from the Nagorno-Karabakh region and will be “replaced” by Russian peacekeeping forces. In addition, the warring parties will have to stop fighting and prepare for the entry of the blue berets. Thus, “third time’s the charm”, after the collapse of three fragile ceasefires negotiated by Russia, France and the United States, there has finally appeared a more positive signal for this much-discussed dispute.

Some have argued that the agreement reached on November 9 could be seen as a major redrawing of the security map of the South Caucasus, a sensitive and volatile region wedged between Türkiye, Russia and Iran. The arrangement also affirms the role and position of an increasingly assertive Türkiye in the region, with its support for Azerbaijan in the war that began in September.

“I have made a very difficult decision for myself and for all of us,” Pashinyan said in a statement on social media announcing the deal. “This is not a victory, but it is not a defeat either.” The deal effectively ends a quarter-century of Armenian military control over the remote, mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, and Russia will now guard the border.

Nagorno-Karabakh region. Graphic: RFE/RL

Object returned to original owner?

It should be reiterated,Nagorno-Karabakh regionis populated mostly by ethnic Armenians, but it lies within Azerbaijan’s Soviet borders and declared independence before the Soviet Union collapsed. Now, for Azerbaijanis, the proposed settlement offers the prospect of at least some of the hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the war of separation that ended in 1994, who could return home. That war ended in a twist: with a ceasefire that was seen as a disaster but inevitable for Azerbaijan after Armenian victories.

The new agreement, Putin said, would require both Armenian and Azerbaijani forces to stop at their current positions. That would cement Azerbaijan’s capture of the strategic town of Shusha, as it is known to its people and Shushi to Armenians. It is the second largest town in the region and lies less than 10 kilometers from the breakaway capital of Stepanakert.

Armenia also lost control of the supply route that brought military supplies to the mountainous region, and cutting this route would also destroy the Armenian defense forces' hope of continuing to hold out there if the fighting continued.

Crowds stormed the government building in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, after Mr Pashinyan's announcement. Photo: AP

“I made this decision as a result of a deep analysis of the military situation,” Pashinyan wrote. The leader said the agreement was “the best solution in the current situation.” Hours after his announcement, protests erupted in the Armenian capital, Yerevan. A group of people broke into the government building and removed Pashinyan’s nameplate from the door of the prime minister’s office to express their anger and discontent.

For the past 25 years, the separatist government in Nagorno-Karabakh has held power over seven occupied Azerbaijani districts. These are sparsely populated areas, with abandoned villages and badly damaged stone houses. Armenia has repeatedly rejected UN resolutions calling for the return of the people, perhaps because holding them would mean holding a military advantage, and has so far flatly said “no” to any arrangement that would allow the people to return.

But now, with the agreement reached earlier this week, Azerbaijan has gotten what it has sought in negotiations for years, including, of course, the return of those displaced. In addition towithdraw troops from the areaArmenia also agreed to relinquish control over small ethnic Armenian enclaves inside Azerbaijan but outside Nagorno-Karabakh; open a transport corridor for Azerbaijan to travel through Armenia to the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhichevan; and allow the United Nations to oversee the repatriation of people left homeless by the war.

Ethnic Armenian forces in the Upper Karabakh region resist an attack by the Azerbaijani army. Photo: Armenian Defense Ministry

As for the fate of the Nagorno-Karabakh capital Stepanakert, although it was saved from what seemed like an imminent military assault, it will have to rely on Russian peacekeepers to keep it safe. The “blue berets” will be deployed there for five years and will also guard the access route through a mountain pass called the Lachin Corridor, along with a buffer zone of about 5 km along it. Furthermore, having lost control of Shusha/Shushi, Armenia was forced to accept the agreement’s requirement that a new access route be built through the town, now in Azerbaijan’s hands. If realized, this would clearly be another major loss, another blow to the Armenian “mission” in Nagorno-Karabakh.