Anxiously awaiting report on Russian interference in British elections

Systemic intervention?

With details predicted to be related to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, many people are concerned that the report could create a storm in British politics like what happened in American politics after suspicions of Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

Despite Russia's denials, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said it was almost certain that "Russian actors" had tried to interfere in the UK election last December by circulating leaked government documents online. Mr. Raab said the Intelligence and Security Committee was also conducting an investigation into how Russia obtained the documents. While he was careful not to mention the possibility of Russian cyberattacks, Mr. Raab also said the documents may have been leaked through the personal email account of a special government adviser.

The details of Russian interference in the British election are part of a report to be published this week by the House of Commons Intelligence and Security Committee. But analysts predict there will be more to the report on Russian interference in British politics, as the report is the result of an 18-month investigation by the Intelligence and Security Committee into the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, England, in 2018.

British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said there was no doubt that “Russian actors” had tried to interfere in the British election. Photo: Getty

The first leaked documents, which former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn claimed were obtained legally, were used during his election campaign last year. The 451-page document reportedly contains sensitive details about the UK-US free trade agreement negotiations, most notably the Conservative Party’s agreement to open up the NHS to US companies. The documents have since been widely circulated on the social media platform Reddit, attracting a lot of negative commentary – information that could influence British voters in the December election.

According to experts at Graphika, a social media consultancy, analysis of grammar and spelling suggests the documents circulating online originated from Russia, consistent with a technique called Infektion that Facebook has previously disclosed to identify Russian online information operations. Combined with the assertions of officials in Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government, the accusations of interference in the UK election become more serious.

In principle, the British Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee will not disclose any information from the report before it is officially approved and published by the government to avoid revealing sensitive information. However, British public opinion is spreading speculation about the content of this report, which claims that Russia's interference in British politics is systemic. This includes not only the 2019 election but also other important events such as the 2017 election, and further, the historic Brexit referendum in 2016.

There are three important contents that are expected to appear in the report: First, the discussions related to the issue of opening the national health care service (NHS) between the UK and the US - something that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government has always denied; Second, detailed information about Russia's interference in the 2016 US election to warn the British government; Third, the Russian factors behind important political events in the UK.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is said to have tried to block the publication of the parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee report. Photo: Getty

Lessons from America

Not only anxiously waiting for the content of the report of the Intelligence and Security Committee, British public opinion also raised many issues surrounding the time of publication of this report. Objectively, the delay is said to be related to the operation of the Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee. Mr. Dominic Grieve, former Chairman of this committee, said that the report was sent to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on October 17 last year. According to normal procedures, the government will have 10 days to review and decide to publish the report.

However, the British Parliament was dissolved in early November last year to prepare for an early general election, and the Intelligence and Security Committee was also dissolved. It was not until last week that the committee was re-established. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had nominated a close figure, MP Chris Grayling, as Chairman, but 9 members of the committee rejected the Prime Minister's nomination and chose MP Julian Lewis - one of the members who was expelled by the Conservative Party last year because of disagreements on the Brexit plan. Just one day after being established, the Intelligence and Security Committee, with a Chairman "unwilling" of Boris Johnson, announced that it would publish a report on Russian interference in the British elections.

But what makes the timing of this special report so interesting is not that the Intelligence and Security Committee has been dissolved. There has been a lot of criticism aimed at Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has tried to prevent the report from being published because the contents of Russian influence in British politics could affect the government's reputation, especially damaging the reputation of the Conservative Party before the December 2020 general election.

Labour has also accused the government of suppressing the report due to concerns about questions surrounding discussions with the US on the UK-US Free Trade Agreement and Russia’s links to Boris Johnson’s Brexit campaign. In particular, one piece of information considered highly sensitive related to Russian-linked donors to the Conservative Party in recent elections.

Information about the relationship with Russia could negatively impact the reputation of Mr. Boris Johnson and the government. Photo: Daily Express

Analysts say that although the exact content of the report is not yet clear, it is likely that the publication of the report this week will create a storm in British politics, similar to the cloud that has covered Donald Trump's first term as president with many different investigations. Of course, in terms of extent, the report will not affect Prime Minister Boris Johnson as much as Donald Trump did, because the partisan factor in British politics is not as fierce as in American politics, and Boris Johnson is not facing an important election like Donald Trump.

However, Mr. Boris Johnson certainly does not want storms to come at this time, in the context that he is in dire need of unity to lead the UK's Brexit process smoothly by the end of this year - the most important milestone since taking office as Prime Minister of the UK.