Anxiously awaiting report on Russian interference in UK election

Systemic intervention?

With details expected to be related to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, many people are concerned that the report could create a storm in British politics like what happened in American politics after suspicions of Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

Despite Russia's denials, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said it was "almost certain" that "Russian actors" had tried to interfere in the UK election last December by circulating leaked government documents online. He said the Intelligence and Security Committee was also conducting an investigation into how Russia obtained the documents. While he was careful not to mention the possibility of Russian cyberattacks, he said the documents may have been leaked through the personal email account of a special government adviser.

The details of Russian interference in the UK election are part of a report to be published this week by the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament. But analysts predict that there will be more important content about Russian interference in British politics, as the report is the result of the Intelligence and Security Committee's 18-month investigation into the poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, England in 2018.

British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said there was no doubt that “Russian actors” had attempted to interfere in the UK election. Photo: Getty

The first leaked documents were used by former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during his election campaign last year – documents that Corbyn claimed were obtained legally. The 451-page document reportedly contains sensitive details about the UK-US free trade agreement negotiations, most notably the Conservative Party’s agreement to open up the NHS to US businesses. The documents have since been widely circulated on the social media platform Reddit, attracting a lot of negative commentary – information that could influence British voters in December’s election.

According to experts at Graphika, a social media consultancy, grammar and spelling analysis of the documents circulating online showed that they originated in Russia, consistent with a technique called Infektion that Facebook had previously disclosed to identify Russian online information operations. Combined with the assertions of officials in Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government, the accusations of interference in the British election become more serious.

In principle, the British Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee will not disclose any information from the report before it is officially approved and published by the government to avoid revealing sensitive information. However, British public opinion is spreading speculation about the content of this report, which suggests that Russian interference in British politics is systemic. This includes not only the 2019 election but also other important events such as the 2017 election, and further, the historic Brexit referendum in 2016.

There are three important contents that are expected to appear in the report: First, discussions related to the issue of opening the national health care service (NHS) between the UK and the US - something that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government has always denied; Second, detailed information about Russia's interference in the 2016 US election to warn the British government; Third, Russian factors behind important political events in the UK.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is said to have tried to block the publication of the parliamentary intelligence and security committee report. Photo: Getty

Lessons from America

Not only are the British public anxiously awaiting the content of the report of the Intelligence and Security Committee, they are also raising many questions about the time when this report will be published. Objectively, the delay is said to be related to the operation of the Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee. Mr. Dominic Grieve, former Chairman of this committee, said that the report was sent to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on October 17 last year. According to normal procedures, the government will have 10 days to review and decide to publish the report.

However, the British Parliament was dissolved in early November to prepare for an early general election, and the Intelligence and Security Committee was dissolved as well. It was not until last week that the committee was reconstituted. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had nominated his close friend, MP Chris Grayling, to be the chairman, but nine members of the committee rejected the Prime Minister's nomination and chose MP Julian Lewis - one of the members who was expelled by the Conservative Party last year over disagreements over the Brexit plan. Just one day after being established, the Intelligence and Security Committee, chaired by Boris Johnson "unwillingly", announced that it would publish a report on Russian interference in the British elections.

But what makes the timing of the report so interesting is not the fact that the Intelligence and Security Committee has been disbanded. There has been much criticism of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has been accused of trying to block the report’s release because its findings on Russian influence in British politics could damage the government’s credibility, especially the Conservative Party’s credibility ahead of the December 2020 general election.

Labour has also accused the government of suppressing the report due to concerns about questions surrounding discussions with the US on the UK-US Free Trade Agreement and Russia’s links to Boris Johnson’s Brexit campaign. In particular, one piece of information considered highly sensitive was related to Russian-linked donors to the Conservative Party in recent elections.

Information about the relationship with Russia could negatively impact the reputation of Mr. Boris Johnson and the government. Photo: Daily Express

Analysts say that although the exact content of the report is not yet clear, it is likely that the publication of the report this week will create a storm in British politics, similar to the cloud that has covered Donald Trump's first term as president with many different investigations. Of course, in terms of scale, the report will not affect Prime Minister Boris Johnson as much as Donald Trump did, because the partisan factor in British politics is not as fierce as in American politics, and Boris Johnson is not facing an important election like Donald Trump.

However, Mr. Boris Johnson certainly does not want storms to come at this time, in the context that he is in dire need of unity to lead the UK's Brexit process smoothly by the end of this year - the most important milestone since taking the position of Prime Minister of the UK.