Iran faces 'double crisis'
(Baonghean) - In contrast to the image of a sea of people showing solidarity after the US attack on General Soleimani, the continuous protests over the past two weekends in Iran expressed anger and carried the message of "opposing the government". Although the scale of this protest was much smaller than the event in late December 2019, according to observers, it could completely explode into a major crisis, especially when there is incitement from outside.
“UNDERWAVE” IN THE WATER
Three days after a Ukrainian plane crashed in Iranian territory, on Saturday morning (January 11) local time, Iran admitted to “unintentionally” shooting down the Ukrainian plane, killing all 176 people on board.
Of the 176 people killed in the crash, most were Iranian and Canadian, a surprising admission from the Iranian government, which hours earlier dismissed the theory that it had mistakenly shot down the Ukrainian plane as “psychological warfare.”
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| The scene of the Ukrainian plane that was “mistakenly shot down” by Iran on January 8. Photo: AFP |
Analysts say the evidence gathered since the crash has made it impossible for Iran to continue denying responsibility. Admitting it would help Iran avoid further isolation and avoid an investigation that would make Iran look like an “irresponsible” country.
However, this action of Iran seems not to be enough to appease some people. A memorial ceremony for the victims of the ill-fated flight quickly turned into an angry protest in Tehran and spread to many neighboring localities.
Protesters criticized the Iranian military and government for not imposing a flight ban amid escalating tensions with the US, and for being slow to “confess”.
This latest wave of protests includes students and middle-class Iranians, in contrast to the largely working-class protesters who took to the streets in late 2019.
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| A prayer vigil by Tehran residents for the victims of the plane crash. Photo: NYT |
Compared to the protest over the decision to increase gasoline prices at the end of last year, this protest was much smaller, with only a few thousand people. However, considering the nature and context, this march is even more ominous.
First, the majority of protesters were university students - people expressing anger and grief for the victims of the plane crash, because many of them were students.
Many regional observers say this is an ominous sign for the Iranian government because students have historically played a role in bringing about regime change in the Islamic country.
Second, it is rare for Iranians to take their anger out on the Supreme Leader, who is considered the “messenger” of Allah. This time, the anger was directed at the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Protesters carried banners demanding the resignation of Khamenei and several government officials, an unusual move in the Islamic country, in stark contrast to the millions of Iranians who took to the streets to mourn Soleimani just days earlier.
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| Thousands of anti-government protesters outside Amirkabir University in Tehran, Iran on January 11. Photo: Anadolu |
Some observers say that the feeling of frustration and discontent has been simmering in Iranian society since the US imposed sanctions, causing the country's economy to seriously decline.
In addition, the escalation of the confrontation with the US, culminating in Iran shooting down a Ukrainian plane, most of which were Iranian citizens... led to social agitation. Another factor that cannot be ignored is the incitement from outside, taking advantage of the instability within Iranian society to stir up more tension, making the situation even more complicated.
“FIRE” FROM THE OUTSIDE
So far, it seems that the Iranian government has controlled the protests that began on January 11. However, no one is sure whether those small “sparks” will flare up into a big fire or not because recent events show that the Iranian government is facing “internal and external” pressure.
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| President D. Trump wrote on Twitter in support of Iranian protesters - the content was reposted in Farsi, the language used by Iranians. Photo: Twitter |
Immediately after the protests in Tehran, US President Donald Trump affirmed that he would closely monitor the protests and was “inspired” by the courage of the Iranian people in demanding the resignation of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“To the brave and suffering people of Iran: I have stood with you since the beginning of my presidency. My government will continue to stand with you,” Trump tweeted in Farsi, the language spoken by Iranians.
“There is no way to massacre peaceful protesters or shut down the Internet. The world is watching.”
Protests in December 2019 turned into chaos when extremists set fire to bank buildings. Iran was forced to shut down the country’s internet to prevent protesters and agitators from communicating with each other.
Iran is believed to be the first country in the world to shut down the internet nationwide to prevent forces from spreading fake news and escalating conflicts. It is unclear whether Iran will continue to use this tactic in this protest.
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| US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (left) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at a press conference in Washington DC announcing sanctions against Iran. Photo: AP |
It is unclear how the US administration will “side with Iranian protesters” when a few days ago, after Iran attacked US military bases in Iraq, the Trump administration announced a series of new sanctions targeting a number of Iranian economic sectors such as steel, textiles and a series of other sectors.
Observers believe that the “maximum pressure” strategy that Washington is implementing will put economic pressure on Tehran, directly and immediately impacting the Iranian people, thereby creating “cracks” in society, leading to anti-government protests and, further, coups.
All of this leaves Iran facing a dual crisis, its most serious since 1979: confronting the US and facing internal turmoil at home.
Such a context requires Tehran to act urgently to demonstrate that the government is listening to the people, control the protests and avoid falling into "traps" from outside.
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| Iran's economy remains trapped in the grip of the US. Photo: BBC |
