Iran - Venezuela join hands, giving America a headache!

Similar diseases, similar neighbors

Five Iranian tankers are en route to Venezuela, carrying at least $45.5 million worth of gasoline and other products. This amount of oil is expected to be able to offset Venezuela's shortage for the next 50 days. It should be noted that Venezuela is currently facing a widespread shortage of gasoline, as domestic raw material production is hampered by US sanctions. These include banning the import of important diluents as well as spare parts needed to carry out the refining process, producing finished oil products in this country. Since 2017, the administration of US President Donald Trump has targeted Venezuela with severe economic sanctions, including an oil embargo to prevent imports and exports of raw materials and fuel to this Caribbean country. In recent months, the US Treasury Department has also imposed secondary sanctions on two subsidiaries of Russian energy giant Rosneft, which has purchased more than 60% of Venezuela's crude oil output.

Iranian oil tanker heading towards Venezuelan waters. Photo: AFP

After Rosneft's withdrawal, Iran has stepped in, starting to provide fuel and technical support to restore Venezuela's largest refinery. This plant had to stop operating since last year during the period when Venezuela had a widespread power outage. Of course, Iran itself is also in a "hot water" period with the US, when the two sides continuously warn and criticize each other on all aspects. Most notably, not only has it increased the presence of naval forces in the Persian Gulf and warned to destroy any naval vessel approaching US warships, the US Navy has recently deployed a series of warships to the Caribbean Sea, including: USS Detroit, Lassen, Preble and Farragut to intercept Iranian oil tankers. Not only that, the Trump administration has also threatened Iran about its technical air corridor to Venezuela, calling on other countries to suspend Iran's excessive benefits.

However, in response to the US's deterrent and warning moves, both Iran and Venezuela are determined to "do it by all means". Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced on May 23 that the country's armed forces had deployed a missile defense system in the La Orchila island area in the North and conducted exercises to protect Iranian oil tankers. On the same day, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also warned of retaliatory measures against the US if Washington obstructed Iranian fuel tankers from reaching Venezuela. Everyone understands that, faced with a dual crisis of falling oil prices and US sanctions, both Iran and Venezuela are trying to come together at all costs! If for Venezuela, it is to ensure the supply of gasoline and oil, avoiding the risk of crisis and fuel depletion, then for Iran, it will be future agreements with Venezuela, contributing to compensating for the country's income. More importantly, it is also the goal of confronting a "common enemy" - the US!

The handshake between Iran and Venezuela has upset US President Donald Trump. Photo: AFP

When will America run out of patience?

Showing off its fins and showing off its force, the public held their breath, but contrary to predictions, Iran's first oil tanker named Fortune entered Venezuela's exclusive economic zone without encountering any obstacles from US patrol warships. There were no collisions, conflicts or arrests. The public questioned whether it was the Venezuelan naval ships and aircraft escorting the Iranian oil tanker that made the US "hesitate"? The answer is probably both correct and incorrect! The reason is that the US 4th Fleet in charge of the Caribbean Sea and the South Atlantic, although having quite limited military capabilities, including destroyers and coastal patrol ships, mainly performing tasks related to drugs, is still capable of fighting both Iranian and Venezuelan forces. But despite that, it seems that the US has chosen to "ignore" the trip of the Iranian ship to Venezuela.

In the event that the US were to take any action against Iranian ships, a heated conflict would certainly ensue. Not only would Iran and Venezuelan forces be greatly affected, but the US would also be greatly affected. The US fleet, which is not in its home region, would also be more or less damaged. Not to mention, Tehran, with its series of tough statements, would not hesitate to send more troops and forces to fight the US with the support of Venezuela. It is also worth remembering another precedent when Iran seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf last year, after British forces had previously seized an Iranian oil tanker. This is probably the reason why the US government was somewhat hesitant when the first Iranian oil tanker entered Venezuelan waters.

Venezuelan ships and planes were tasked with escorting Iranian oil tankers. Photo: Military Watch Magazine

More than anyone else, President Donald Trump understands that avoiding conflict with anyone, anywhere, is the top priority of the US administration right now. The Covid-19 pandemic, the presidential election, and relations with China are Mr. Trump’s current focuses. But Mr. Trump also understands that “ignoring” the Iran-Venezuela handshake is no different from showing that Washington is powerless. Moreover, this decision does not satisfy the hard-line politicians within the US who always want to be tougher on Iran.

Because the world observers believe that the Iranian oil shipments supporting Venezuela are a test of the patience and attitude of the Trump administration towards the increasingly close relationship between these two countries. It is difficult to mobilize troops and also impossible to ignore, perhaps the US President will choose a common solution that is much safer. That is to continue additional economic sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, when the oil shipments have "successfully passed". However, even with more sanctions, perhaps the US will find it difficult to stop those who "have no way back"!