Israel - Türkiye: Broken mirror mended?

(Baonghean) - Türkiye and Israel have just announced an agreement to normalize relations between the two countries, ending the diplomatic tension of the past 6 years.

However, according to analysts, the current rapprochement between Türkiye and Israel is due to the situation, when both countries are considered “the loneliest in the Middle East”. Without goodwill, the Israel-Turkey relationship, even if mended, cannot be as good as before.

Despite disagreements, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will shake hands to reconcile. Photo: Reuters.

Allies turn against each other

Israel and Türkiye were once very close allies in the Middle East. However, everything changed 180 degrees on May 30, 2010 when the Israeli navy raided a Turkish-backed aid flotilla heading to Gaza. Nine Turkish citizens were killed in the raid.

Immediately, Türkiye announced a series of tough measures such as expelling the Israeli Ambassador, downgrading diplomatic relations, suspending bilateral military agreements, and asking the International Court of Justice to re-evaluate Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip. To "retaliate" against Israel, Türkiye also increased its support for a Palestinian state at the United Nations.

Of course, it is not that Türkiye has left no door open for Israel to “atone for its mistakes”. Türkiye has put forward three conditions for normalizing relations with Israel: Israel must officially apologize for the incident, compensate the families of the nine victims and lift the blockade of the Gaza Strip.

However, Israel is not an easy opponent when it firmly refuses to apologize and claims that Israel is only "defending itself", while affirming that "Israel will never bow its head".

The breakdown in relations between Israel and Türkiye has the US "worried", because both Israel and Türkiye are extremely important allies of the US in the Middle East region.

The “mercenary” relationship between Israel and Türkiye has affected the US’s strategic calculations in the Middle East. Especially when the US cannot provide any solution to Mr. Erdogan’s problem during the most tense period between the two countries, which is to choose between Ankara or Tel Aviv.

Therefore, over the past 6 years, the US has had to "run like a shuttle" to find a solution to the confrontation between the two allies, including putting pressure on Israel - a country that cannot leave the US's protection in the region.

The US efforts had initial results in 2013 when Israel agreed to apologize to Türkiye and compensate the victims. However, the biggest problem is that Israel did not accept Türkiye's third demand to lift the blockade of the Gaza Strip, causing the process of normalizing relations between the two sides to remain in a deadlock for the past 3 years.

Turkish flag flies in Tel Aviv. Photo: Reuters.

The reunion of "2 lonely people"

With US encouragement, Israel and Türkiye recently found a solution to overcome their differences: the Israeli blockade would not have to be lifted, but Turkish companies and aid organizations would have access to the Gaza Strip.

In response, at Israel’s request, Türkiye must also close down Hamas military command centers on its territory. After reaching agreement on these key points, the two countries’ foreign officials will meet again in July to sign a formal agreement, allowing diplomatic representation at the ambassadorial level and restoring full relations.

In fact, finding a solution to the disagreements is not the only factor that makes the two sides decide to normalize diplomatic relations. According to analysts, current developments in the region are extremely important factors for both Israel and Türkiye to accept to reduce tensions.

Stemming from Israel's policy towards Iran and Türkiye's policy towards Syria, both countries are now considered the "most isolated countries" in the Middle East with a series of damaged bilateral relations.

In addition, concerns about a rising Iran in the region also brought the two sides closer together. Mr. Cengiz Aktar, Professor at Türkiye's Suleyman Sah University, once commented that the agreement to normalize relations between Israel and Türkiye is a typical example of the convergence of interests.

Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan himself declared: “Whether we like it or not, we have to get this deal.”

The regional context combined with the US's mediating role could help the normalization agreement between Türkiye and Israel to be implemented on the ground, with the appearance of each country's Ambassador to the other country after a six-year absence.

However, international public opinion still believes that there are deep political disagreements between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as both pursue their own ambitions regarding their position in the region.

Therefore, the distrust between the two sides could harm reconciliation efforts, and even if the Israel-Türkiye relationship is mended, it is unlikely to return to the level of six years ago.

Thuy Ngoc