Will the "Arab NATO alliance" plan help the US "contain" Iran?

Considered an “Arab NATO”, will the alliance idea that the Trump administration is nurturing realize America's calculations in this geostrategic hotspot of the world?

US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House in March 2017. Photo: Getty

Revealing the new Middle East strategy

In fact, it is not until now that the idea of ​​a political-security-military alliance between the US and its Arab allies in the Middle East has emerged.

In the past, there have been many public uproars about previous US administrations wanting to promote a more formal, closer alliance with Arab allies. However, for various reasons, similar ideas have not come to fruition.

But perhaps the idea is gaining momentum more than ever as US-Iran relations have become particularly tense since President Donald Trump announced his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal last May. In recent days, the heat has increased with a war of words between both sides.

Most recently, General Qassem Soleimani, Commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRG), strongly warned President Donald Trump that the US would lose everything if it attacked Iran. This warning came after President Trump wrote on Twitter that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani should never threaten the US.

Previously, Iranian President Rouhani also did not "hold back" when he warned: "Peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars."

There has even been information from Australia that the US is likely preparing for an attack on Iran as early as next August. Although all sides have denied this information, with the US administration of President Donald Trump, perhaps nothing is impossible!

It is therefore no coincidence that during US President Donald Trump’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Riyadh officials floated the idea of ​​a security pact. After the trip, the two sides also reached a major arms deal, although at that time there was no mention of plans to form an alliance.

And so far, the White House has also confirmed that it has discussed the idea of ​​establishing this alliance with traditional regional partners over the past few months.

More specifically, the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) will include a series of Arab countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates along with Egypt and Jordan. The US also expects to launch this alliance at a summit between the countries scheduled to take place in mid-October.

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Of course, the US side has affirmed that Washington has no policy of regime change or Iran's collapse. US Secretary of Defense James Mattis in a recent statement affirmed that the US only maintains the purpose of preventing Iran's threatening actions.

However, whether a close alliance in missile defense, military training, and anti-terrorism between the US and its allies will only be a wall to prevent Iran, no one can predict!

President Trump is welcomed in Saudi Arabia. Photo: AP

On the other hand, it is not unreasonable to assume that an alliance between the US and Arab countries in the Middle East could very well be a “shake the tree to scare the monkeys” move. First of all, Iran and its allies such as Russia and Syria are certainly closely watching the next moves of the US and its Arab allies.

The victory of the "trio" Russia - Iran - Syria on the Syrian battlefield or the steps to strengthen the role and voice of Iran and Russia in the region will therefore be somewhat neglected.

Not only that, the MESA alliance is also considered a "wind blow" that President Trump sent to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) - an alliance that he has always criticized as ineffective and unfair.

Certainly, the pressure to contribute financially to NATO's defense budget that the US sends to member countries will therefore also have some weight.

Second, this move by President Trump is also expected to be able to heal the Gulf diplomatic crisis between Qatar and Arab countries that has lasted for more than a year.

The resumption of full diplomatic relations between ally Qatar and rival Iran last August certainly did not please President Trump, so Trump’s inclusion of Qatar in the MESA alliance this time is like “kicking the ball” to Qatar.

Between the US, its Arab allies and their security commitments on one side and Iran on the other, Qatar probably won’t have a hard time choosing. Meanwhile, it’s very possible that the prolonged Gulf crisis will also “heal itself” because of Mr. Trump’s Middle East strategic alliance.

Third, perhaps President Trump also included the goal of “America First” in this Arab alliance idea. Because surely, whether this idea comes true or not, it will once again “stir up” the already unstable Middle East. The arms race not only between rivals but also between allies is certainly starting to be wound up.

Of course, the biggest beneficiaries are American arms dealers who are always ready to fulfill huge agreements and contracts in any tense war zone.

Especially the rich Arab countries, which have many enemies to deal with and always spend money on weapons. Besides, it is also necessary to mention that the vital oil transportation routes in the Middle East in the future will inevitably be under the control of the US government.

Therefore, although it is said to only aim to contain and blockade Iran, it can be said that the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) with Arab allies of US President Donald Trump this time, is perhaps cherishing much more than that!