"A narrow window of opportunity" and the challenges facing nations!
(Baonghean.vn) - The tensions and conflicts at the beginning of 2015 continue to show that the international order is becoming increasingly complex, with political interests between major powers emerging, most clearly demonstrated by the resolution of the ceasefire in Ukraine. From the Minsk I agreement (September 19, 2014) to the Minsk II agreement (February 12, 2015), which contents will be realized remains implicitly understood as a "private matter" between Russia and the United States. At this time, the vigorous mobilization of forces and displays of power by the parties involved are creating numerous opportunities and challenges for other countries.
| Leaders of Russia, France, Germany, and Ukraine at the Minsk peace conference. (AP photo) |
On February 17, 2014, after US President Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro announced the "normalization of relations," a new chapter truly opened with the strong consensus of representatives from both the Democratic and Republican parties for the US Congress to move towards lifting the embargo against Cuba, laying the groundwork for the US to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. It is noteworthy that the hostile relationship between the US and Cuba was a direct product of the "Cold War" between Russia (the former Soviet Union) and the US. That "Cold War" period essentially ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union (December 12, 1991).
Twenty-five years after the end of the first Cold War, and with the signs of a second Cold War becoming increasingly apparent, the hostile relationship between the United States and Cuba has been resolved. This aligns with the Resolution of the 6th Congress of the Cuban Communist Party in early 2011 and demonstrates a stronger determination than ever to update its economic model to overcome difficulties and move towards sustainable development and prosperity. Closing the chapter on the past and looking toward the future is a historical lesson from countries with similar circumstances, and it is also the path Cuba is striving to follow. The United States – a country 90 miles from Cuba but with an enormous economic and political distance – has seized this opportunity to transform "a nearby threat" into a partner with the strategic importance of an "outpost."
Recent news about positive developments in relations between the US and Cuba is bringing renewed inspiration to the international community and can be seen as a bright spot in a landscape of international relations that has been tinged with gloom. Cuban leaders have repeatedly stated that they have always considered Vietnam a role model to emulate, both during the Great Patriotic War and the period of reform. This shows that Cuba has clearly defined its path and model for overcoming difficulties and crises; it is only a matter of time.
Alongside groundbreaking news regarding US-Cuba relations, recent reports in the world press have also indicated significant progress in strengthening cooperation between Russia and North Korea. In mid-January 2015, international news agencies reported that North Korea's "number one citizen," Kim Jong Un, may have accepted an invitation to attend a ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War I, to be held on May 9th in Moscow.
If this materializes, Russia would be Kim Jong Un's first foreign trip since assuming power in December 2011. Kim is reportedly responding positively to the invitation from Russian President Putin. Analysts believe Russia is looking to boost natural gas exports, and North Korea would naturally be one of the places they want to build a gas pipeline through. Conversely, North Korea also wants to use this opportunity to indirectly mend relations with Beijing. Under Xi Jinping's leadership, China is taking a "tough stance" towards North Korea, creating numerous difficulties for the country.
There would be nothing remarkable about the tightening of relations between North Korea and Russia (and possibly China later) if public opinion hadn't been stirred up in recent days by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's command of a military exercise and his order for the army to prepare for combat. The exercise, directly commanded by Kim Jong Un, was a live-fire drill simulating an attack to seize a frontline island in the Yellow Sea. The order for the military to prepare for combat (issued on February 23rd at an expanded meeting of the Central Military Commission of North Korea) comes amidst the annual joint military exercises between the US and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula, scheduled to take place from late February to April this year.
Kim Jong Un issuing urgent orders is nothing new. However, given his potential upcoming visit to Russia, and the approaching one-year anniversary of Putin's declaration of Crimea's official Russian sovereignty (March 18, 2014), no country involved can afford to be complacent. Even though North Korean state media released photos on February 15th of Kim Jong Un sitting in his private jet inspecting a massive construction project, and he appears extremely enthusiastic about his plan to transform Pyongyang into "a world-class city that the whole world will envy," there is still reason to be concerned that he is being drawn to the field of science and technology.
In reality, the relationships between major powers often significantly influence the formation of international relations, thereby opening or closing the door to development for other nations. At this point, the question arises: if small and medium-sized countries are truly open-minded and flexible in their relationships to "squeeze through the narrow gap," then opportunities for development will always be wide open. Conversely, if they implement rigid policies, constantly placing their countries in the context of impending war or potentially being drawn into wars due to the influence of major powers, then not only will development be difficult for them, but world peace will also be constantly threatened.
Chi Linh Son
