No power, US determined to keep oil in Syria

Inconsistent

October 7 marked a turning point in the US intervention in Syria when President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of all US troops from the northeastern region of the country. The announcement caused the US to face a wave of criticism both domestically and internationally for turning its back on its ally, paving the way for Türkiye to attack the Kurdish forces. But less than a month later, people saw a convoy of US armored vehicles moving from Iraq, through the town of Rmeilan, the town of Qamishli to move deep into eastern Syria.

A convoy of US armored vehicles passes through the town of Qamishli in eastern Syria. Photo: AP

When President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal, the number was estimated at around 1,000 troops. This time, the US plans to send half of the armored battalion, including 30 Abrams tanks and about 500 soldiers.

The rapid change in US plans in Syria has led many to say that “the White House is in chaos in its foreign policy process,” or to criticize President Donald Trump for being a person without a stance and constantly changing his mind. But the US accepts all criticism and negative comments because its return to Syria is guaranteed by a not-so-small value: oil.

Several sources revealed that US President Donald Trump changed his mind after talking with Jack Keane, a retired general who served as an adviser on Iraq under former President George Bush. Keane also discouraged President Donald Trump's plan to withdraw troops from Syria, believing that cutting ties with the Kurdish forces in Syria would weaken the US's ability to deal with Russia and Iran. Jack Keane convinced President Donald Trump by pointing out large oil fields in the area where US troops withdrew, including Syria's largest oil field in Deir al-Zour.

An oil facility in Rmeilane, eastern Syria. Photo: Time

The US may not be able to maintain a significant influence in Syria due to Russia’s effective intervention, but by controlling oil production facilities, the US can maintain ties with the Kurds for long-term calculations. Not to mention, oil itself – still called “black gold” – always carries values ​​that any country wants to have. That convinced President Donald Trump to reverse his decision to send troops back to eastern Syria.

A day before US forces were deployed from Iraq to eastern Syria, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper also frankly admitted that the US returned to eastern Syria to protect oil facilities in the region. Of course, the US announced a much more “big picture” reason, which was to prevent the ability of the Islamic State (IS) militants to access oil resources, revive IS’s fighting strength in the region, and even attack Europe and the US. The US side did not forget to mention the Kurds when saying that it would find a way for these oil fields to bring some profit to this force. According to President Donald Trump’s plan, an American company could use Iraq’s connections to exploit and export oil from Syria.

VALUE OF OIL

Some people have questioned whether the US should change its strategy in Syria when the country only produces 24,000 barrels of oil per day, bringing in $1.5 billion at market prices. However, that is only a current figure due to the instability of the war situation. In reality, Syria's oil production capacity can reach 385,000 barrels per day, most of which comes from oil fields in the Northeast. That was also the actual figure before the war in Syria broke out in 2011.

US President Donald Trump reversed his decision to withdraw all troops from Syria Photo: The Politico

According to analysts, US President Donald Trump's repeated statements in recent days regarding the oil issue in Syria reflect America's consistent interest in intervening in many different countries in the Middle East.

President Donald Trump has always supported controlling, exploiting and selling resources abroad, believing that this is a model that helps the deployment of US troops abroad pay for itself. In 2016, Donald Trump himself lamented the withdrawal of former President George Bush's troops from Iraq without oil, or the way he reacted very strongly to the attacks on the oil production facilities of ally Saudi Arabia, then deployed about 14,000 more troops to the Persian Gulf region. As for sending troops back to eastern Syria this time, President Donald Trump has declared a direct and clear message: "Keep the oil."

The US may claim to be protecting oil production facilities to prevent oil from falling into the hands of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), but there are clear benefits for the US. In addition to “holding the oil” to help the US military abroad solve the problem of costs, the US can also prevent the possibility of oil returning to the control of the Syrian government. It is the US way of reminding the Syrian government, as well as Russia and Iran, of the US presence in this Middle Eastern country.

Russia released evidence that the US military "disguised" as security to smuggle oil in Syria. In the photo: Oil tankers appeared near the Al-Omar oil field in Syria's Deir ez-Zor province, located 14 km east of the town of Al Mayadin. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry

Perhaps having “read” the US’s intentions, Russia has strongly objected to the US sending troops back to eastern Syria to control oil production facilities. Russia accused the US of acting not in the interests of Syria’s security, and of being outside its authority under international law. Russia also mentioned the possibility of the US causing instability in the region due to the risk of clashes between US, Russian, and Turkish forces in the region. Because according to the agreement between Russia and Türkiye, the two sides will conduct joint patrols in the Syrian territory near the Turkish border and Russia has currently mobilized about 300 soldiers from the Chechen Republic to this area.

But perhaps, warnings from Russia will not be able to stop US forces from returning to eastern Syria. Because, the US can accept losing power in Syria after an ineffective intervention campaign, but keeping the oil is a completely different story.