If North Korea doesn't want negotiations, what does it want?

Lack of negotiating motivation

After a month of silence, North Korea conducted another test on February 27.ballistic missilesThe missiles returned from a location near Sunan – home to Pyongyang's international airport. This is also the location where North Korea launched a pair of short-range ballistic missiles on January 16th. In terms of timing, some argue that the serious crisis in Ukraine may have facilitated North Korea's missile tests while circumventing international sanctions, as the US would be distracted and not prioritize leading the international response to North Korea. However, analysts believe that developments in Ukraine have had little impact on North Korea's schedule, considering that in January alone, North Korea conducted seven missile tests, more than in all of 2021 combined. The country's one-month pause in testing coincided with China hosting the Beijing Winter Olympics, and this could be North Korea's way of showing respect to China – still considered its only major ally.

North Korea conducts another missile test after a nearly month-long hiatus. Photo: Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken once suggested that North Korea was trying to attract attention with its missile tests, but that assessment seems to be an oversimplification in the current context, where the prospects for negotiations between North Korea and either the U.S. or South Korea are not highly regarded. Fundamentally, neither the U.S., South Korea, nor even Japan currently have the motivation to negotiate with North Korea, so attracting attention as leverage for negotiations at this time holds little value for North Korea. On the South Korean side, President Moon Jae-in has pursued a more conciliatory stance towards North Korea since the beginning of his term five years ago, and his basic position is generally unaffected by inter-Korean tensions or missile tests. Neighboring Japan has long developed a strategy to counter the North Korean missile threat by building a missile defense system and enhancing its ability to strike North Korean bases.

The most important factor in these competitionsnuclear negotiationsNorth Korea is America. However, since President Joe Biden took office, the North Korean issue has not been ranked among the top foreign policy priorities of the Biden administration. The US president tends to view North Korea's missile tests as "routine work."

The US response to North Korea's missile tests is considered to be largely symbolic.

With numerous major domestic issues, coupled with foreign policy problems involving Russia and China, peace on the Korean Peninsula is not a central focus of Biden's agenda. A Pew Research Center survey released in mid-February, which summarized the top 18 policy concerns of Americans, barely mentioned foreign policy issues and not North Korea. Furthermore, Biden surely recognizes that serious diplomatic moves with North Korea at this time would face opposition from his political opponents. Therefore, the US response to North Korea's missile tests is considered largely symbolic, condemning the tests and reiterating the message that the US is ready to negotiate at any time, provided North Korea agrees to discuss denuclearization. And of course, actual negotiations remain a long way off.

North Korea's Hwasong-12 missile has a range that can reach Japan and Guam, USA. Photo: NK News

Defining a "nuclear weapons state"

Without intending to draw attention to themselves as leverage in negotiations, many are questioning North Korea's repeated missile tests in January 2022, which resumed this past weekend, with the most widely accepted view being that North Korea is testing its technical capabilities, aiming to be recognized as a "peaceful nuclear weapons state."

A year ago,North Korean leader Kim Jong-unHe has previously stated his intention to upgrade the nation's strategic arsenal, adding "new nuclear capabilities." He specifically mentioned submarine-launched ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, improving missile accuracy, and switching from liquid to solid fuel to significantly reduce launch preparation time. Kim Jong-un also referred to tactical nuclear weapons and the development of nuclear and conventional warheads for the missiles North Korea is developing. Recent tests, including short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, are believed to be part of the arsenal upgrade plan that Kim Jong-un has announced.

Once North Korea is recognized as a nuclear weapons state, the international community and the United States will no longer have a reason to maintain sanctions against the country.

During a period when US-North Korea relations were considered relatively warm, with two summits and a meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un at the inter-Korean border, North Korea pledged to halt long-range ballistic missile tests in 2017. At the time, this pause may have been intended to boost US-North Korea negotiations, but it could also have stemmed from North Korean technicians' lack of confidence in the likelihood of success. A failed test would have raised international doubts about North Korea's nuclear weapons development capabilities.

But at this point, things have changed. North Korea no longer has the incentive to leverage negotiations, but the need for the lifting of sanctions and recognition as a "peaceful nuclear weapons state" remains. And to be recognized, North Korea will have to prove that any obstacles to its progress are insurmountable, and once recognized as a nuclear weapons state, the international community and the US will no longer have a reason to maintain sanctions against the country.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has previously announced plans to upgrade the nation's strategic weapons arsenal. (Photo: KCNA)

As the Beijing Olympic Games concluded, many experts predicted that North Korea would continue conducting further missile tests to improve its weapons technology. The last missile test conducted by North Korea in January was a launch of the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), the most powerful missile tested by North Korea since 2017. The Hwasong-12 has a range of 5,000 km – putting all of Japan and the US territory of Guam within its range. Both Japan and Guam are home to important US military bases that would be used in any crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

With the resumption of missile tests, North Korea may soon upgrade to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), or even a nuclear missile in the near future. But whether it's the Beijing Olympics or the Ukraine crisis, North Korea tends to act according to its own timetable, and one of its important upcoming holidays is the 110th birthday of leader Kim Il-sung on April 15th. This is considered a crucial time for North Korea to showcase its powerful new weapons. Therefore, between now and then, North Korea is expected to conduct more missile tests; the question is what limit it will reach – intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear missiles.