Qatar crisis reveals Middle East mystery

(Baonghean.vn) - The diplomatic crisis between the monarchies in the Gulf, with the main confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with Qatar, can be settled in the short term but is unlikely to be resolved in the long term.

US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Photo: AP

Mediators such as Kuwait and the United States may help the Gulf conflicting parties reach face-saving compromises, and Doha may accept some of the 13 demands put forward by the four Gulf states, but the fundamental differences between the two sides will not be easily reconciled.

Let's explore the roots of the Middle East crisis through an article by Professor Gregory Gause III, who specializes in international affairs at the University of Texas, USA.

For those who view the current regional crisis in the Middle East through sectarian lenses, the fact that Iran was quick to jump to Qatar's defense is yet another example of the larger conflict between the two major sects of Islam, the Sunni and Shiite.

The real conflict is not about Iran but about very different understandings of how Islam should relate to government among the Sunni powers of the Middle East. Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are Sunni-majority countries ruled by Sunni kings, but have very different positions on the issue. Türkiye and Egypt, the two largest Sunni republics, are also divided.

In a recent article, the author argues that the inability of Sunni countries in the Middle East to form an effective coalition against Iran stems from differences in the nature of the threats they face.

Qatar and Türkiye, the UAE and Egypt, and Saudi Arabia represent three different forces in this thorny question. The Qatar crisis is only the most recent and most visible manifestation of this intra-Sunni conflict.

Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood

Qatar bet on the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world before the Arab Spring, providing support to Brotherhood groups across the region; safe haven for exiles like Egyptian preacher Yusuf al-Qaradawi and Hamas leader Khaled Mashal; and a platform for Sunni democratic and electoral views on the Al Jazeera network’s regional satellite channels.

The Sunni democratic Islamist view, while certainly not liberal democracy, also seeks power through electoral means. This vision is shared by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who saw the success of the Muslim Brotherhood in the wake of the Arab Spring as the possibility of forming a bloc of similar regimes, with Türkiye at the forefront.

A post-Assad Syria would be the next member of the bloc, which is why Turkish President Erdogan was the first regional leader to call for the Syrian president to step down.

The Qatar crisis is actually exposing the conflicts within the “family” of Gulf countries. Photo: AP

Ideological conflicts in the region

The Sunni states cannot act together because, although they may be concerned about Iran, they see each other as potential threats to the stability of their domestic regimes. Egypt and the UAE see the Muslim Brotherhood as their main threat, which means they see Qatar and Türkiye as allies of these enemies.

That is why Cairo and Abu Dhabi are so determined to force Doha to shut down Al Jazeera. The Saudis worry that Qatar, which officially shares the Wahhabi Salafi brand of Islam (a Saudi-originated form of Islam), could meddle in their internal politics, thereby mobilizing more opposition to their regime.

Egypt is reluctant to back Saudi Arabia’s efforts to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, fearing that Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood will benefit. Saudi Arabia has historical ties to the group but has recently distanced itself from it, viewing populist, electoral Islam as a domestic threat.

Türkiye, meanwhile, fears that successful pressure on Qatar could lead to regional pressure on itself. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been on the same side in the regional fight against IS and al-Qaeda, but cannot control or trust the Salafi Islamist militants who seek to overthrow them at home.

President Donald Trump’s vision of a Sunni world united with the United States against both Iran and terrorism is untenable as long as the Middle East’s Sunni regimes maintain different views on the relationship between Islam and politics. In a Middle East supposedly dominated by a sectarian Sunni-Shiite conflict, Sunnis cannot work together.

The Gulf Arab states are often likened to a big family with many ruling families intermarried and having long-standing relationships dating back to the oil era, before turning poor fishing villages into metropolises filled with skyscrapers. So the Qatar crisis is actually exposing the conflicts within this “internal family”./.

Lan Ha

(According to Washington Post)