What are the scenarios for Kim Jong-un's visit to South Korea?

At a summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Pyongyang on September 19, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un accepted an invitation to visit Seoul "in the near future." President Moon Jae-in also expressed his hope that Kim Jong-un would visit South Korea before the end of 2018. This was a surprising announcement, opening up hope for a fourth Moon-Kim Summit.

Some envision North Korean leader Kim Jong-un riding through the streets of Seoul in an armored limousine. Or he might take a stroll through the wealthy southern part of Seoul, stopping at the towering Lotte World Tower overlooking the Han River. Some even speculate that Kim might visit South Korea’s tallest mountain, Hallasan, on Jeju Island, similar to the two leaders’ visit to Mount Paektu in North Korea on September 20. “That’s a great idea,” said Yoon Young-chan, senior presidential public relations secretary. “We’ll consider it.”

Observers say that the visit of Kim Jong-un – the third generation of North Korean leaders to South Korea, if it takes place, will be a historic turning point, but it is also considered a test of Seoul's politics and logistics. Supporters of President Moon Jae-in will welcome this visit, seeing it as an important step towards peace. However, South Korea still has a clear distinction between generations and ideologies. Therefore, the visit will certainly face opposition from activists with a hardline stance on Pyongyang. The Washington Post analyzed the possibility of Kim Jong-un's visit to South Korea, mentioning the time, location and many issues surrounding the meeting.

Appropriate time to hold the Summit

If this visit takes place, Mr. Kim Jong-un will become the first North Korean leader to visit the capital of South Korea since the Korean War (1950-1953) ended with an armistice. Previously, at the 2000 Inter-Korean Summit, Mr. Kim Jong-un's father - leader Kim Jong-il - told South Korean President Kim Dae-jung that he would visit Seoul at an "appropriate time". However, Mr. Kim Jong-il was unable to fulfill this promise until his death in 2011.

However, Kim Jong-un, the young, determined and talented leader of North Korea, is expected to do so. Since launching his diplomatic initiative in early 2018, Kim Jong-un has followed his own path to gradually assert himself as an international politician. He showed friendliness and closeness to South Korean officials and had an open attitude towards US President Donald Trump at the Singapore Summit in June 2018. The North Korean leader also did not hesitate to walk around the streets of Singapore with his subordinates.

Analysts believe that late November and early December 2018 would be the most appropriate time for Mr. Kim Jong-un to visit South Korea.

Late September would not be appropriate because President Moon Jae-in has to travel to New York City next week to attend the United Nations General Assembly, where he plans to meet with US President Donald Trump to discuss the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.

October will also be difficult because there is little time between now and then. In early November, North Korea will have to focus on advancing negotiations with the US before the US midterm elections. In late December, leader Kim Jong-un will need to prepare for a New Year's speech, in which he will announce major political decisions.

How will Kim Jong-un be received?

How Kim Jong-un is received in South Korea will depend on his steps toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The fourth Moon-Kim summit in Seoul is expected to carry more diplomatic weight than previous summits, and will require South Korea to prepare a reception as grand as the one President Moon Jae-in received in Pyongyang this week. Moon Jae-in was greeted by tens of thousands of North Koreans when he appeared on the streets of Pyongyang. He also addressed 150,000 people at Pyongyang's May Day Stadium during a massive mass performance.

The reception of leader Kim Jong-un is likely to be controversial in South Korea, where many activists still hold a hardline stance on North Korea. To create a positive atmosphere for this visit, President Moon Jae-in needs to further promote denuclearization efforts from Pyongyang, said Koh Yu-hwan, an expert at Dongguk University (South Korea). According to this analyst, the visit could create a stepping stone leading to a three-way summit between the US, South Korea and North Korea, with the expectation that the leaders of the three countries will issue an official declaration to end the Korean War.

However, this prospect remains very distant because the US has always affirmed that it wants to see North Korea take practical steps towards denuclearization before signing any declaration. Currently, there is still much skepticism in Washington about North Korea's goodwill to eliminate its nuclear program.

Where will Kim Jong-un stay?

South Korea does not have a grand state guesthouse like the Paekhwawon, where South Korean President Moon Jae-in stayed during his three-day visit to Pyongyang. But one place that would be a good fit is the luxurious Walkerhill Hotel, where Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, stayed during her visit to Seoul in February 2018.

Located on a hill along the Han River, the Walkerhill Hotel is far from the center of Seoul and is a frequent venue for high-profile events and high-profile guests. But one issue that Kim Jong-un may be concerned about is that the hotel is named after U.S. Army General Walton Harris Walker, who died in the Korean War.

Security Guarantee

To ensure the safety of North Korean leader Kim Jong-in, South Korea will mobilize thousands of highly skilled police officers with extensive experience in security operations and dealing with protests. The police will undergo training several weeks before the visit. Previously, this force successfully completed the task of ensuring security for the visit to South Korea of ​​Kim Jong-un's sister. In 2017, when President Donald Trump visited South Korea, more than 15,000 security officers and hundreds of police vehicles created a strong security barrier near the Presidential Palace in the capital Seoul to prevent protesters.

Unlike President Moon Jae-in’s recent visit to North Korea, Kim Jong-un is unlikely to make a stadium speech to thousands of South Koreans. But he could address a smaller group, as Chinese President Xi Jinping did to students at Seoul National University in 2014. And it is unlikely that Kim will address lawmakers in the South Korean National Assembly to call for stronger support for the agreements reached at the third inter-Korean summit.

If Kim Jong-un's visit to South Korea takes place, it will create a major change in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. However, the South Korean President will face many challenges in convincing members of the National Assembly and the South Korean people to accept the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.