What are the scenarios for Kim Jong-un's visit to South Korea?

At a summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Pyongyang on September 19, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un accepted an invitation to visit Seoul "in the near future." President Moon Jae-in also expressed his hope that Kim Jong-un would visit South Korea before the end of 2018. This was a surprise announcement, opening up hopes for a fourth Moon-Kim Summit.

Some envision North Korean leader Kim Jong-un riding through the streets of Seoul in an armored limousine. Or perhaps taking a stroll through the wealthy southern part of Seoul, stopping at the towering Lotte World Tower overlooking the Han River. Some even speculate that Kim will visit South Korea's highest mountain, Hallasan, on Jeju Island, similar to the two leaders' visit to Mount Paektu in North Korea on September 20. "That's a great idea," said Yoon Young-chan, senior secretary for public relations to the South Korean president. "We will consider it."

Observers say that the visit of Kim Jong-un – the third generation of North Korean leaders to South Korea, if it takes place, will be a historic turning point, but it is also considered a test for Seoul's politics and logistics. Supporters of President Moon Jae-in will welcome this visit, seeing it as an important step towards peace. However, South Korea still has a clear distinction between generations and ideologies. Therefore, the visit will certainly face opposition from activists with a hardline stance towards Pyongyang. The Washington Post has analyzed the possibility of Kim Jong-un's visit to South Korea, mentioning the time, location and many issues surrounding the meeting.

The right time to hold the Summit

If this visit takes place, Mr. Kim Jong-un will become the first North Korean leader to visit the capital of South Korea since the Korean War (1950-1953) temporarily ended with an armistice agreement. Previously, at the 2000 Inter-Korean Summit, Mr. Kim Jong-un's father - leader Kim Jong-il - told South Korean President Kim Dae-jung that he would visit Seoul at an "appropriate time." However, Mr. Kim Jong-il was not able to fulfill this promise until his death in 2011.

However, Kim Jong-un – the young, determined and talented leader of North Korea – is expected to do that. Since launching a diplomatic initiative in early 2018, Kim Jong-un has followed his own path to gradually assert himself as an international politician. He showed friendliness and closeness with South Korean officials and had an open attitude with US President Donald Trump at the Summit in Singapore in June 2018. The North Korean leader also did not hesitate to walk around the streets of Singapore with his subordinates.

Analysts believe that late November and early December 2018 would be the most appropriate time for Mr. Kim Jong-un to visit South Korea.

Late September would not be suitable because President Moon Jae-in has to go to New York City next week to attend the United Nations General Assembly meeting, where he plans to meet with US President Donald Trump to discuss the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.

October will also be difficult because there is little time between now and then. In early November, North Korea will have to focus on promoting negotiations with the US before the US midterm elections. In late December, leader Kim Jong-un will need to prepare for a New Year's speech, in which he will announce major political decisions.

How will Kim Jong-un be received?

How Kim Jong-un is received in South Korea will depend on his steps toward denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. The fourth Moon-Kim summit in Seoul is expected to carry more diplomatic weight than previous summits, and will require South Korea to prepare a grand reception like the one President Moon Jae-in received in Pyongyang this week. Moon Jae-in was warmly welcomed by tens of thousands of North Koreans when he appeared on the streets of Pyongyang. He also gave a speech to 150,000 people at Pyongyang's May Day Stadium during a large-scale mass performance.

The reception of leader Kim Jong-un is likely to be controversial in South Korea, where many activists still hold a hardline stance on North Korea. To create a positive atmosphere for this visit, President Moon Jae-in needs to further promote denuclearization efforts from Pyongyang, said Koh Yu-hwan, an expert at Dongguk University (South Korea). According to this analyst, the visit could create a stepping stone leading to a trilateral summit between the US, South Korea and North Korea, with the expectation that the leaders of the three countries will issue an official declaration to end the Korean War.

However, this prospect remains very distant because the US has always affirmed that it wants to see North Korea take practical steps towards denuclearization before signing any declaration. Currently, there is still much skepticism in Washington about North Korea's goodwill to eliminate its nuclear program.

Where will Kim Jong-un stay?

South Korea does not have a grand state guesthouse like the Paekhwawon, where South Korean President Moon Jae-in stayed during his three-day visit to Pyongyang. But one place that would be a good fit is the luxury Walkerhill Hotel, where Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong-un’s younger sister, stayed during her visit to Seoul in February 2018.

Located on a hill along the Han River, the Walkerhill Hotel is far from the center of Seoul and is a popular venue for high-security events and high-profile guests. But one issue that Kim Jong-un may be concerned about is that the hotel is named after U.S. Army General Walton Harris Walker, who died in the Korean War.

Ensure security

To ensure the safety of North Korean leader Kim Jong-in, South Korea will mobilize thousands of highly skilled police officers with extensive experience in security operations and dealing with protests. The police will have to undergo training several weeks before the visit. Previously, this force successfully completed the task of ensuring security for the visit to South Korea of ​​Kim Jong-un's sister. In 2017, when President Donald Trump visited South Korea, more than 15,000 security officers and hundreds of police vehicles created a strong security barrier near the Presidential Palace in the capital Seoul to prevent protesters.

Unlike President Moon Jae-in’s recent visit to North Korea, Kim Jong-un is unlikely to make a stadium speech in front of thousands of South Koreans. But he could address a smaller group, as Chinese President Xi Jinping did with students at Seoul National University in 2014. And it is unlikely that Kim will address lawmakers at the South Korean National Assembly to urge stronger support for the agreements reached at the third inter-Korean summit.

If Kim Jong-un's visit to South Korea takes place, it will create a major change in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. However, the South Korean President will face many challenges in convincing members of the National Assembly and the South Korean people to accept inviting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.