Scenario for a general attack on the largest IS stronghold in Iraq

The Iraqi army and the anti-Islamic State coalition are urgently planning to blockade and attack to retake the city of Mosul from the militants.

Kurdish armed forces fire rockets towards IS in southeastern Mosul. Photo: Reuters.

Plans for the upcoming battle by the Iraqi army, with support from the US-led anti-Islamic State (IS) coalition, to retake Mosul, the strongest IS stronghold in Iraq, are gradually being revealed, according to the BBC.

British Defence Secretary Michael Fallon said military coordination arrangements had been finalised on 23 September. He revealed that "the operation to encircle Mosul will begin in a few weeks' time" with the aim of liberating Iraq's second largest city "in the coming months".

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan even specifically announced the launch date of the Mosul attack as October 19.

Multi-stage

According to scholar Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, what can be confirmed for sure at this time is that the campaign to liberate Mosul will have many phases.

First, the logistical base for the operation had to be established at Qayyarah air base, 60 km south of Mosul, which the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) recaptured in early July. Authorities have since upgraded the base to accommodate transport aircraft. From there, ammunition, fuel and food will be flown directly to the front line, rather than being trucked to Iraqi supply depots near the capital Baghdad, quite a distance from Mosul.

About 560 US military advisers have arrived at Qayyarah air base to guide and support the Mosul offensive. US and French long-range artillery systems have also been deployed, including mobile artillery and rocket launchers capable of firing directly at Mosul within 20 seconds with high accuracy.

Enclosure

The Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces will hold the deserted rural areas and roads south of Qayyarah air base and west of Mosul. Photo: AFP.

Qayyarah base also serves as a staging point for Iraqi forces involved in the liberation of Mosul. They are mainly Iraqi soldiers who have withdrawn from across the country to join multi-ethnic and sectarian fighting units.

There are about 11 special forces brigades ready to attack, each with about 2,000 troops. Five other units from paramilitary police and tribes, with nearly 6,000 troops, mainly Sunni Arabs from Greater Mosul, are also on standby.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces, some Christian paramilitary police units and the Kurdish-backed Kakai are encircling Mosul in the northeast and will tighten the siege from that direction.

Another plan was drawn up, allowing Shiite Muslim volunteer security forces from southern Iraq to indirectly support the battle to retake the city without alarming Mosul's Sunni Muslim majority.

The Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) forces will be mobilized to protect the depopulated rural areas and roads south of Qayyarah air base and west of Mosul, but they will not be involved in urban fighting.

Attack

Forces fighting in Mosul. Graphics: BBC.

The next phase of the operation will be a multi-phased assault on the outskirts of Mosul. The main thrust will be organized along the Baghdad-Mosul highway on the west bank of the Tigris River and will stop when the forces reach the southern outskirts of Mosul.

Another assault formation could push into the desert west of Mosul, along oil pipelines and roads to blockade the city, preventing IS from sending reinforcements or fleeing to Syria.

The final formation could attack Mosul from the east bank of the Tigris River, striking the eastern flank of the city.

Scholar Michael Knights commented that this phase will take place in waves with erratic results: some days it will be easy to advance, some days it will encounter fierce resistance at a strong IS defense point or have to stop the attack to wait for supplies.

At that time, the Iraqi Security Forces and the Popular Mobilization Forces will flood into the desert area of ​​Mosul with large convoys under the cover of coalition warplanes, aiming to destroy the stubborn IS fighters.

November and December 2016 will be when the main battle begins. First, a command center for operations will be established in a location close to Mosul that can be easily defended, giving the Iraqi Security Forces and the anti-IS coalition a safe staging point.

Protecting the lives of civilians in the area is also a complex issue. There are likely to be 700,000 people still in Mosul. Once the liberation forces control the outskirts of Mosul, civilians will begin to pour out in large numbers because IS will no longer be able to stop them. IS fighters can easily blend in with the population to cause unrest. This is why the anti-IS coalition does not want to approach Mosul until they are ready to take over the entire city.

Fall

For months, the anti-IS coalition has been closely observing IS's tactics and defenses, carefully studying how IS moves, according to the BBC.

Michael Knights said that airstrikes will be concentrated in areas where the anti-IS coalition wants to break through IS defenses. IS leaders will be the most targeted.

However, IS probably will not be able to fight fiercely in all areas of Mosul because the city is too large.

Instead, the 2,000 to 3,000 IS fighters are likely to choose a few key areas to hold out in. The administrative center of western Mosul is a symbolic location. The liberation campaign can only be declared a victory if it is completely controlled.

As the city’s defenses collapse, the final stabilization phase of the operation will begin. Stabilization forces will need to find a way to distinguish fleeing IS fighters from displaced civilians. Law and order in Mosul will also need to be quickly re-established.

According to VNE