Kyiv prepares for attack, separatists threaten to seize the entire Donbass region.

Taking advantage of the ceasefire agreement, both Kyiv and the separatist forces are mobilizing troops, equipment, and weapons in preparation for a new battle.

Alexander Zaharchenko, Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), declared that, taking advantage of the ceasefire agreement, Kyiv is redeploying its armed forces and preparing for a new offensive against Donetsk. The only question is whether Ukrainian authorities will decide to order the attack.

The Ukrainian army has concentrated assault units around Donetsk, restoring the combat capability of brigades that were routed by militias in late summer.

Is the Ukrainian army massing forces, preparing for a new offensive?

The mobilization of conscripts has contributed to an increased concentration of troops in the Donbass gateway regions. Multiple rocket launchers of all sizes are being fired from three directions towards the DNR capital – said Prime Minister and Chief of Staff of the DNR Zaharchenko.

“Given the density of military units converging on the city of Donetsk and the steadily increasing number of shelling incidents, it can be concluded that the Ukrainian army is preparing for a full-scale offensive. According to our information, Ukraine needs approximately 3-5 more days to finalize its forces, transport ammunition, and replenish personnel.”

The intelligence gathered through wiretapping and reconnaissance by the DNR has also been indirectly confirmed by the Ukrainian authorities. Recently, Speaker of Parliament Aleksandr Turchinov and leaders of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Defense handed over 10 armored vehicles to the National Police.

Previously, the National Police, originally formed from a contingent of extremist ethnic volunteers, fought using whatever means were available, from trucks and buses to armored cash transport vehicles. Now, they receive formal military equipment from top government officials.

Of course, a dozen armored vehicles can't accomplish much on the battlefield. But what's important here for Kyiv is to show they prioritize a military solution. This is especially crucial during the election campaign for the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament), scheduled for October 26.

According to sociologists, President Poroshenko's bloc has a chance of securing one-third of the seats in parliament. Next is Oleg Lyashko's "Radical Party" with approximately 13% of the vote. Third is the "Popular Front" led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Alexander Turchinov with 11%.

A few weeks ago, the "Poroshenko Bloc" was still in first place, followed by Prime Minister Yatsenuk's "Popular Front" in second place with the potential to win 9% of the parliamentary seats, while the Radical Party of the hawkish nationalist Oleg Lyashko was only in third place.

The trio of Lyashko, Yatsenyuk, and Turchinov make no secret of their hawkish stance. They remain opponents of the ceasefire agreement. In interviews, these three "hawkish" leaders frequently clamor that the law granting Donbass its special status, signed by the President, should not be taken seriously.

In their campaign advertisements, these three men compete to wear military uniforms or pose for photos aiming guns or riding armored vehicles. If they unite in Parliament, this group would become a dangerous and aggressive alliance that Poroshenko would be unable to confront, even if he wanted to.

Moreover, the current president seems unwilling to do anything. Under international pressure, Poroshenko was forced to accept a ceasefire agreement with the Donbass militias. But he understands that a military victory offers politicians far more benefits than a lengthy and arduous negotiation process.

Voting for the parliament and leadership of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics is scheduled for November 2nd. According to Moscow, these activities will contribute to stabilizing the situation in eastern Ukraine. However, they are disadvantageous to Kyiv. Therefore, the country's military is making efforts to prepare for a lightning war.

The strategically correct timing was before the parliamentary and leadership elections of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. A military offensive would undermine the democratic process, and fighting would flare up again in southeastern Ukraine, this time undoubtedly more fiercely.

The only question is whether President Poroshenko will unilaterally break the ceasefire agreement and order an attack. If extremist parties gain a significant number of votes, the Ukrainian president will be led by hawkish forces, and gunfire will certainly erupt again in the east of the country.

While Poroshenko's government is preoccupied with the chaotic elections and concentrating its forces in the east, the separatists are making new, aggressive moves to boycott Kyiv's elections, intensifying their efforts to control the entire Donbass region and openly challenging the central government.

On October 23, the leadership of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) made a decision that greatly angered Kyiv: switching Donetsk's time zone to Moscow time. The self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic (LNR) also expressed a similar intention. October 26, the day Kyiv elects a new parliament, is also the day Donbass will adopt Russian time.

At the same time, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics, part of the Novorossiya Federal State, were also busily preparing for independence elections separate from Kyiv within their own territories. The elections were scheduled to be held on November 2nd.

Ukrainian President Poroshenko declared that the voting results in Donetsk and Lugansk would be invalid and demanded that the two regions hold elections on December 7th. However, it is clear that these two self-proclaimed republics will certainly ignore Kyiv's warning.

Alongside the decision to hold separate elections and switch to Moscow time, separatists are planning to capture a number of strategically important cities in Donetsk, such as Kramatorsk, Mariupol, and Slovyansk; large-scale military operations cannot be ruled out.

This information was personally announced by Alexander Zaharchenko, the self-proclaimed Prime Minister of the Donetsk People's Republic, at a press conference on October 23, so no one can doubt it. During the press conference, Zaharchenko made no secret of the possibility of organizing large-scale military operations in the region.

"Kramatorsk, Mariupol, Slavyansk will be ours. We intend to capture them and take them back. Therefore, heavy military operations cannot be ruled out," he said, adding to Interfax that "the situation along the demarcation line between the warring parties in eastern Ukraine remains tense."

Earlier, Zaharchenko also accused Kyiv of not complying with the ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine, claiming that only the "Donetsk militias" were adhering to the ceasefire. This was also confirmed in a report by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) published on October 22, thus prompting a response from the OSCE.

According to official figures provided by OSCE observers, during the ceasefire period that came into effect on September 5, more than 330 civilians in Donbass were killed. Military units controlled by Kyiv regularly shelled Donbass territory, while separatist forces began retaliating on October 21.

According to a report posted on the organization's website, OSCE observers recorded a total of 75 ceasefire violations. International observers directly witnessed 15 of these incidents. Of these, 13 attacks were initiated by Ukrainian forces, and 2 by militia forces.

Ole Solvang, a senior science officer at Human Rights Watch, said: “We have concrete evidence that Ukrainian troops were involved in some of the attacks on Donetsk in early October. The shelling locations allow us to conclude that the shells were fired from the southwest – the location where Ukrainian troops were massing.”

Source: Dat Viet Newspaper