What does Kim Jong-un want from Trump?

After thawing relations with South Korea during the Winter Olympics, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a surprise visit to Beijing on March 25-28, marking his first foreign visit since taking power in 2011. Kim Jong-un will hold a working session with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in April - a prelude to his expected meeting with Trump in May.

Hatred of the United States has been one of North Korea's founding principles. Kim Il Sung came to power in 1948 and built the country's ideology around the Juche doctrine, which emphasizes self-reliance and extreme nationalism. His descendants continued to consolidate power by propagating that other countries were plotting to destroy North Korea with the support of the United States, according toTime.

How could the world's two most proud leaders go from mocking each other to showing respect in a face-to-face meeting in just a few months?

For Mr Kim, the short answer is financial and security. Three new rounds of UN sanctions on North Korea since Trump took office have cut off the isolated and struggling economy’s main sources of revenue from coal, labor and textile exports. Mr Kim also knows that Pyongyang would lose any real war. Experts say this suggests Mr Kim may consider dismantling his nuclear program and agree to a moratorium on weapons testing.

The US and its allies have many incentives to negotiate with Mr Kim, but all would benefit from neutralising a nuclear state. South Korea would be badly damaged if attacked from the North Korean border. China and Japan – the world’s two largest economies – would also be at serious risk if there were a conflict on the peninsula.

Geography is no longer America’s advantage. Experts say Pyongyang could strike the US mainland with a nuclear EMP, wreaking havoc on the power grid, utilities, infrastructure and any industry that depends on it. If the US were to launch a preemptive strike on North Korea, it would risk shaking its ties with its East Asian allies.

At a restaurant in Gangnam, South Korea, the highest-ranking defector from North Korea under Kim Jong-un revealed the mindset of his former supreme leader. Clive (name changed for security) said he decided to flee because a close relative had defected, meaning he would soon be sent to a labor camp.

Clive believes that Kim Jong-un may genuinely want to “make up” with Washington to improve the lives of North Korea’s 25 million people. He also believes that the leader of Pyongyang may agree to denuclearize in exchange for a multilateral defense treaty with four of its most influential neighbors – Russia, China, South Korea and Japan – ratified by the UN, approved by the US Congress and confirmed by President Trump. To achieve this deal, Kim Jong-un may even have no objection to the US keeping the 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea.

Such gains can only be achieved by overcoming historical suspicion and animosity, and the potential economic benefits may encourage North Korea to try. A thaw in relations with Tokyo could provide a vital resource for Pyongyang. North Korea has not received compensation for human rights violations committed by Japan during its occupation of the peninsula (1910-1945). In 1965, South Korea received $800 million in grants and loans from Japan under a similar arrangement. If relations between North Korea and Japan improve, North Korea could receive $5-10 billion in compensation in a similar form.

The multinational agreement that Clive hopes for will face many difficulties. Russia, China, South Korea and Japan will have to put aside their conflicting interests. The US Congress will also have difficulty passing the agreement because Republicans are generally reluctant to follow the UN’s lead. Moreover, Trump has tended to oppose multilateral agreements.

Kim’s surprise trip to Beijing suggests he may need China’s help in negotiating with the US. Xi, in turn, could use his relationship with North Korea as leverage to get the US to back down on recent import tariffs.

Kim and Trump’s personalities are another wild card. Trump has appeared more relaxed than his predecessors. He congratulated Putin on his re-election and praised Xi’s decision to scrap presidential term limits. Trump supporters say this ease reflects the flexible mindset of a dealmaker. “I see some similarities between Trump and Kim Jong-un,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a political scientist at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. “They talk big, but they are pragmatic.”

Of course, that doesn't mean they can easily break the 50-year-old rift.The meeting also faces a series of obstacles such as the sporadic operation of the US State Department under Trump, South Korea still has no ambassador to the US, Joseph Yun, a top US politician closely associated with North Korea policies, left politics in February.

Many also worry that the meeting is too rushed. Summits are usually held after a series of smaller meetings, while Trump and Kim are putting everything into one meeting. "If it all falls apart, what will happen? That will be the end of diplomacy," said the unnamed US politician.

Even if the two sides reach an agreement, they face the difficult question of how to implement it. There is no way to identify all of North Korea's nuclear weapons, and experts say Pyongyang will keep some of them secret. The highest level of nuclear disarmament predicted is between 80 and 90 percent.

It appears the US has no intelligence sources in North Korea, nor any way to access computer data in the closed country. Pyongyang is believed to have a network of underground military infrastructure, information about which is kept secret by the military's top brass.

Clive's prediction for the failure of the talks is quite bleak: "North Korea will continue to increase pressure on the US through its nuclear push." ​​Clive believes that North Korea may even sell nuclear technology and weapons to terrorists and criminal groups to boost its stagnant economy and gain more bargaining power.

“Now is the time to demand that North Korea stop testing and prevent the prospect of them having 50 nuclear-tipped ICBMs,” said Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “Because if they don’t, the problem will get much worse.”