What does Kim Jong-un want from Trump?

Following the thawing of relations with South Korea during the Winter Olympics, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a surprise visit to Beijing from March 25-28, marking his first foreign trip since coming to power in 2011. Kim Jong-un is scheduled to meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in April – a move that will pave the way for a planned meeting with Trump in May.

Hatred of America has been one of the fundamental principles since the founding of North Korea. Kim Il-sung came to power in 1948 and built a national ideology around the Juche doctrine, emphasizing self-reliance and extreme nationalism. His descendants continue to consolidate power by propagating the idea that other nations are plotting to destroy North Korea with the backing of the United States, according toDate.

Why, in just a few months, could the world's two most arrogant leaders go from mocking each other to showing respect through a face-to-face meeting?

For Kim, the short answer is finance and security. Three new rounds of UN sanctions against North Korea since Trump took office have cut off key revenue streams from coal exports, labor, and textiles for the isolated and struggling economy. Kim Jong-un also knows Pyongyang would lose any real war. According to experts, this suggests Kim might consider abandoning the nuclear program and agreeing to a halt to weapons testing.

The U.S. and its allies have many incentives to sit down at the negotiating table with Kim, but all would benefit from neutralizing a nuclear power. South Korea could be severely harmed by an attack from the North Korean border. China and Japan—two of the world's largest economies—would also face serious risks if fighting broke out on the peninsula.

Geography is no longer an advantage for the United States. Experts believe Pyongyang could attack the US interior with nuclear electromagnetic pulse bombs, disrupting power grids, public services, infrastructure, and any industry that depends on them. If the US launches a preemptive strike against North Korea, it risks jeopardizing its relationships with East Asian allies.

At a restaurant in Gangnam, South Korea, the highest-ranking official to ever defect from North Korea under Kim Jong-un revealed the mindset of his former supreme leader. Clive (name changed for security reasons) said he decided to flee because a close relative had already defected, meaning he would sooner or later be sent to a forced labor camp.

Clive believes that Kim Jong-un may genuinely want to "make amends" with Washington to improve the lives of North Korea's 25 million people. He also believes the Pyongyang leader might agree to nuclear disarmament in exchange for a multilateral defense treaty with its four most influential neighbors – Russia, China, South Korea, and Japan – ratified by the UN, approved by the US Congress, and endorsed by President Trump. To achieve this agreement, Kim Jong-un might even have no objection to the US retaining its 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea.

These things can only be achieved by overcoming the barriers of historical suspicion and animosity, and the potential economic benefits might motivate North Korea to try to do so. A thawing relationship with Tokyo could provide a vital source of profit for Pyongyang. North Korea has not received any reparations for human rights abuses from Japan during its occupation of the peninsula (1910-1945). In 1965, South Korea received $800 million in grants and loans from Japan under a similar arrangement. If relations between North Korea and Japan improve, North Korea could receive $5-10 billion in reparations in a similar form to that received by South Korea.

The multilateral agreement that Clive envisioned would face numerous difficulties. Russia, China, South Korea, and Japan would have to set aside conflicting interests. The US Congress would also find it difficult to approve the agreement because Republicans are generally reluctant to follow UN guidance. Furthermore, Trump has a tendency to oppose multilateral agreements.

Kim's surprise trip to Beijing suggests he may need China's help in negotiations with the U.S. Conversely, Xi could use his relationship with North Korea as leverage to pressure the U.S. into making concessions on recent import tariffs.

The personalities of Kim and Trump are another unpredictable factor. Trump seems more relaxed than his predecessors. He congratulated Putin on his re-election and praised Xi Jinping's decision to remove term limits for the presidency. Trump's supporters argue that this relaxedness reflects the flexible thinking of a trader. Political scientist Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute in South Korea commented, "I see some similarities between Trump and Kim Jong-un. They are flamboyant, but pragmatic."

Of course, that doesn't mean they can easily put aside their 50-year-old feud.The meeting also faced a number of obstacles, such as the disjointed functioning of the US State Department under Trump, South Korea still lacking an ambassador to the US, and Joseph Yun, a leading US politician associated with North Korea policies, having left politics in February.

Many also worried that the meeting was happening too hastily. Summit meetings are usually held after a series of smaller, extended meetings. Meanwhile, Trump and Kim are cramming everything into one meeting. "If everything goes wrong, what will happen? That would be the end of diplomacy," said an anonymous American politician.

Even if the two sides reach an agreement, they still face a difficult question: how to implement it? There is no way to identify all of North Korea's nuclear weapons, and experts believe Pyongyang will keep some of them secret. The highest level of nuclear disarmament is predicted to be around 80-90%.

The U.S. appears to have no intelligence sources in North Korea, nor any way to access computer data in this reclusive nation. Pyongyang is believed to possess an underground network of military infrastructure, information about which is held by the top military leaders.

Clive's prediction for a failed negotiation scenario is rather bleak: "North Korea will continue to increase pressure on the U.S. by expanding its nuclear program." Clive suggests that North Korea might even sell nuclear technology and weapons to terrorists and criminal groups to boost its stagnant economy and gain more leverage in negotiations.

"Now is the time to demand that North Korea cease its weapons testing to prevent the prospect of them producing 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads," said Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. "Because if they don't do that, the problem will become much more serious."