Sanctions against Russia have only limited impact
Russian oil production has fallen by less than 3% since the war in Ukraine began while a series of Western energy sanctions have had only a "limited" impact, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
In its most recent monthly oil report, the IEA said Russia's crude oil production in July fell by just 310,000 barrels per day compared to pre-war levels while total crude oil exports fell by about 580,000 barrels per day.
Russian crude oil and oil product exports to Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have fallen by nearly 2 million barrels per day since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine in February. However, the IEA said that oil flows from Russia have been diverted to India, China, Turkey and other countries, while domestic demand in Russia has also increased, thereby mitigating Moscow's losses.
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| Illustration: EPA |
The IEA report estimated that Russia earned $19 billion in oil export revenue last month and $21 billion in June. According to the report, Western sanctions on Russian oil have had only a limited impact.
In June, China overtook the EU to become the largest importer of Russian crude oil.
However, the IEA said that the EU embargo on Russian crude oil and petroleum products will take full effect from February 2023, so Russia could reduce production by about 1 million barrels per day of refined oil and 1.3 million barrels per day of crude oil, forcing Moscow to look for new customers.
Russia is expected to cut oil production after EU sanctions are triggered, leaving major oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, to benefit from increased oil demand in Europe, the IEA said.
Meanwhile, soaring natural gas and electricity prices will cause some countries to switch from gas to oil. The IEA estimates that global oil demand will increase by about 380,000 barrels per day in 2022 to 2.1 million barrels per day.
Previously, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations in Vienna (Austria) Mikhail Ulyanov said that sanctions against Russia had not yielded results.
"The main conclusion we can draw, based on what has happened over the past six months, is that the sanctions against Russia have completely failed," said Mikhail Ulyanov.
According to the Russian Ambassador, if the EU follows the US instructions, this would be tantamount to "political suicide".
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