Russia-China Military Alliance: Leaving Open the Time for Cooperation

Notable signs

Speaking at the Valdai International Discussion Club - Russia's forum on international issues, when asked about the possibility of a military alliance between Russia and China,President Putinsaid: “We have always believed that the relationship between the two countries has reached a level of cooperation and trust. Therefore, the formation of such an alliance is not necessary. But it is certainly conceivable, in theory.” The two militaries have been working closely together and time will tell how things will develop.

Some observers say that while the idea is highly unlikely, even mentioning it would be seen as a sign of goodwill in Sino-Russian relations, especially given the worsening bilateral relations between the US and China.

Russian and Chinese soldiers during a joint exercise in 2019. Photo: AP

These hints about a military alliance are also a clear sign thatsolidarity between Russia and China, in the contextUS election raceis entering its final week. During the election campaigns, it is easy to see that the policies towards Russia and China of the two candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden always receive the attention of voters, especially who will best handle the challenges posed by China.

“Both China and Russia were targets of criticism during the US presidential election. So Putin is trying to show how strong the relationship between Russia and China is.”

Li Lifan, researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences

Moreover, the show of solidarity is also intended to send a message about the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) - the final pact to limit the nuclear arsenals of the US and Russia, which Washington is trying to pressure China to join.

However, the chances of a Russia-China military alliance are still very remote, as this would force both sides to defend each other if attacked. Notably, China is part of the Non-Aligned Movement - an organization of 120 developing countries around the world, not formally affiliated with any major power bloc. This is exactly what China has seen as a core element of its independent foreign policy for decades. For China, a close and cooperative relationship with Russiabased on interestsglobal governance, where Beijing and Moscow have much in common.

Russia-China relations have accelerated under President Putin and President Xi Jinping. Photo: AP

Russia-China relations have warmed and accelerated under President Putin and President Xi Jinping. In fact, Russia and China have valued their bilateral strategic partnership, but so far there have been no talks about the possibility of a military alliance.

Remember in December 2019, Russian President Putin affirmed that there were no plans for a military alliance with China. Therefore, when the Russian leader left open the possibility of forming an alliance in the future, many opinions were cautious, even thinking that the latest statements could be an effort to make Washington and Beijing confront each other.

“US-China tensions are so bad that they could lead to a military conflict. The chances of Russia becoming an ally of China are very low. It is mainly a sign of Russia’s desire to be an important neutral party to force the US and China to make concessions.”

Shi Yinhong, Professor of International Relations at Renmin University of China

Not excluding the possibility

In the context of major changes on the global stage with increasing instability, can Moscow and Beijing successfully transform themselves into a comprehensive military alliance? As Russian leader Putin said, although the two countries have not yet set such a goal, it “does not rule out” it in the future. And the Chinese Foreign Ministry in its official response emphasized the high-level and special relationship between Beijing and Moscow, “there is no limit to the traditional friendship between the two countries, and there is no limit to the expansion of cooperation”.

Chinese military forces participate in a military exercise in Russia. Photo: AsiaTimes

One of the clear evidences is that since 2018, Russia and China have significantly increased the frequency, number and scale of their attacks.joint military exerciseswith at least two sessions per year. Most recently, in September, the two sides held the Caucasus 2020 multi-service live-fire exercise in the Northern Black Sea region. At the same time last September, Russia and China held a large military exercise called Center-2019 in Western Russia. The Chinese People's Liberation Army mobilized a large number of main battle tanks, strategic bombers, fighter bombers... On the Russian side, the exercise involved 128,000 soldiers, along with 15 warships, 600 aircraft, 250 tanks, 200 artillery systems and many missile systems.

The most notable event was the official handover of the $60 million missile early warning radar (SPRN) system to China by Russia. In simple terms, Russia has provided China with exclusive know-how to counter US missile attacks, as well as develop “second strike capabilities” - essential to maintaining strategic balance.

The prelude to deeper cooperation between Russia and China shows that Moscow is creating a military alliance with Beijing and enhancing its response capabilities if the US decides to attack either country. Russian military expert Vladimir Frolov commented that when the two sides successfully integrate the missile attack warning system, Russia and China will be able to detect and destroy US missiles stretching from the South Pacific to the Indian Ocean. Russia and China have long been unable to completely control the Indian Ocean because there are many countries with great military potential such as Iran and India. Linking the defense network will solve this shortcoming.

In 2015, Russia sold six S-400 missile defense systems and 24 fighter jets to China worth $5 billion. Photo: Military Watch

The expanded strategic partnership has brought comprehensive benefits to both Russia and China, and has become a common strategic asset, strengthening their positions on the international stage. The Russia-China alliance does not intend to initiate a military confrontation with the United States. But its use will be aimed at preventing a US attack on one or both of them, and especially at responding to Washington's growing presence in the strategic Indo-Pacific region.

In addition, the transatlantic rift is deepening, and it will not be healed even with a new White House leader. Many European countries do not share the US’s view of antagonizing Russia and China. Finally, time will favor the Sino-Russian alliance, as the US’s global power and influence declines and the world becomes accustomed to the “post-American century”.