Continuously launching objects, North Korea wants to provoke again?

According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), these launches were part of Pyongyang's live-fire drills. However, through the use of multiple rocket launchers and North Korea's tough response statements in recent days, it seems that Pyongyang is trying to stir up the negotiations that have been stalled for a long time.

Apply pressure

On March 3, the North Korean state news agency KCNA reported that leader Kim Jong-un had inspected a long-range artillery drill on March 2 and confirmed that Pyongyang had conducted its first launch this year. On March 9, North Korea was said to have fired three unidentified projectiles into the Sea of ​​Japan. Two consecutive launches in less than a week were enough to once again stir up Japan, South Korea, and the international community after two relatively calm months.

People in Seoul, South Korea watch news about North Korea's missile launches. Photo: AP

In his 2020 New Year's message, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un threatened to launch a new strategic weapon for the United States in the near future if Washington does not lift sanctions or show more goodwill in negotiations. According to experts, this "strategic weapon" could be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). Despite South Korea and the United States recently indefinitely canceling their annual spring military exercises, which North Korea has denounced as an invasion rehearsal, the latest launches are likely not simply part of the country's live-fire drills.

In the context of the 1 year anniversary of the 2nd US-North Korea Summit in Hanoi, there are opinions that the new test launches of North Korea want to remind the US and related countries about the deadlocked negotiations, standing still. Pyongyang also wants to test the reaction of neighboring countries Japan, South Korea as well as the international community about a strategic weapon that this country has warned about.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a military drill on February 29. Photo: Reuters

In an unprecedented move, the North Korean leader's sister, Kim Yo-jong, for the first time warned that South Korea's criticism of Pyongyang's military exercises on March 2 was disrespectful. And that North Korea's activities were not intended to threaten anyone. Commenting on the cancellation of the US-South Korea military exercises, she also affirmed that the decision was made due to concerns about the Covid-19 epidemic, not out of a desire to build peace.

It can be seen that since her appearance, this is the first public statement by Ms. Kim Yo-jong to send a strong message to both South Korea and the United States. Because the public knows that the younger sister of leader Kim Jong-un has a moderate stance and maintains a friendly relationship with Seoul. Observers believe that, on the one hand, Pyongyang wants to show its impatience in the negotiation process, but on the other hand, it is also aiming for a domestic political move, when it wants to gradually increase the influence, voice and position of Ms. Kim Yo-jong in the country's political apparatus.

Silent Strategy

In fact, North Korea's latest moves are completely understandable, as despite making many threats, the administration of US President Donald Trump seems to pay no attention. Recently, after North Korea's test launch on March 2, when asked about the US's reaction, Donald Trump simply replied: "No!" and "No reaction!". North Korean leader Kim Jong-un later said that Trump wanted to maintain a "silent" strategy on all issues related to North Korea. In fact, during the period of the hotly contested primaries with the Democratic Party to find the only candidate for the final performance in November, President Donald Trump seems to have more free time. Because currently, Trump has no opponent within the Republican Party and is focusing on the battle with the Democratic candidate at the end of the year.

The handshakes between US President Donald Trump and leader Kim Jong-un are a thing of the past. Photo: White House

In that context, “keeping the North Korea issue quiet” will be a special priority to firmly grasp the support of voters, contributing to ensuring a final victory. Therefore, despite North Korea’s continuous increase in pressure, it is unlikely that the US President will have a breakthrough on the North Korea issue this year. But from another perspective, Mintaro Oba, a former US State Department official working in North Korea, analyzed that Mr. Trump’s reaction is simply reflecting a huge flaw in the US’s policy of dealing with North Korea!

For their part, as usual, South Korea and Japan have also had their first reactions. Currently, the South Korean military is being maintained in a state of combat readiness, closely monitoring the situation, and guarding against the possibility that North Korea may conduct additional launches. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also requested that information on North Korea's latest launch be fully collected and analyzed, while taking measures to ensure the safety of flights and ships traveling at sea, and fully preparing for unexpected situations.

The trio of the US - South Korea - North Korea has many fates. Photo: Daily Beast

However, in South Korea, President Moon Jae-in is facing a crucial general election in April, and concerns about the pandemic have taken up most of his time and energy. Meanwhile, countries like Japan, China, and the United States are also too busy with disease prevention and control.

In such a context, some opinions suggest that this may be another purpose of North Korea in carrying out the recent launches. That is to demonstrate its commitment to realizing a new type of weapon, and to put pressure on the countries involved, but also not to cause them to overreact, causing the situation to become too tense, which is detrimental to the negotiations!