Would Trump dare to launch a preemptive strike on North Korea?

A preemptive strike by the Trump administration on North Korea could threaten the lives of millions of South Koreans in Seoul and surrounding areas.

That is the opinion of Dr. Benjamin Habib - lecturer in Politics and International Relations at La Trobe University - in an article posted on the website The Conversation.

USS Carl Vilson aircraft carrier strike group in the Pacific. Photo: Stars and Trips

According to Dr. Benjamin Habib, the international community is having to learn to live with the DPRK possessing nuclear weapons. That is because North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons program at any cost; economic sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council have only minimal impact on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula; and military options against Pyongyang have a high risk of leading to a total war disaster.

The Trump administration appears to agree with the first two reasons, but has the opposite view on a preemptive strike on North Korea.

End of “strategic patience”?

Pyongyang conducted its fifth nuclear test in September 2016 and has since conducted a series of missile tests.

The reasons for the North Korean leadership to conduct the above tests include: promoting the technological development of the nuclear weapons program; reacting to the annual US-South Korea joint military exercises; and "testing the muscles" of the new administration of US President Donald Trump.

In response, during a recent visit to South Korea, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that Washington's "policy of strategic patience" toward Pyongyang "has ended" and "all options are on the table" to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

For his part, President Donald Trump has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group to the Korean peninsula, signaling that the US is ready for a preemptive strike if Pyongyang continues to test nuclear weapons.

Following the US Tomahawk cruise missile attack on Syria, Pyongyang needs to take this threat seriously. The risk of escalation into a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula and surrounding areas is increasingly present.

North Korea's nuclear capabilities

Attacking North Korean missile bases is one thing, but destroying Pyongyang's nuclear infrastructure is another.

For precision airstrikes to be successful, the US needs to destroy the most important locations.

In the early stages, North Korea's nuclear program focused on the reactors and reprocessing facilities at Yongbyon. Later, the most important parts of North Korea's nuclear program, such as the production of atomic bombs and the stockpiles of radioactive materials, were likely carried out in secret, deep underground, well protected from air strikes.

Risk of escalation into all-out war

A preemptive US strike against North Korea would certainly turn into a full-scale war, with huge losses on both sides.

This is one reason why South Korea has not retaliated against any North Korean provocations in the past two decades—even unprovoked attacks like the sinking of the South Korean Navy warship Cheonan. South Korea’s capital, Seoul, is vulnerable to North Korean artillery and missile attacks because it is located close to the demilitarized zone. The city of tens of millions of people is virtually defenseless against a barrage of North Korean artillery and multiple rocket launchers.

Seoul, a city with tens of millions of people, is almost “unable to withstand” North Korea's massive artillery and multiple rocket attacks. Photo: Sputnik

The Trump administration’s incitement to all-out war could endanger the lives of tens of millions of South Korean citizens in the capital Seoul and surrounding areas.

The US-South Korea alliance is unlikely to survive such a regional disaster, especially if that crisis is triggered by clumsy US intervention.

North Korea is not as easy to bully as Syria

North Korea is not as easy to bully as Syria. That is why successive US presidents have chosen deterrence, not preemptive strikes, against Pyongyang. They have realized that military options carry too high a risk to bear.

North Korea has the means to retaliate against targets in South Korea and Japan with conventional weapons as well as weapons of mass destruction.

That is why Mr. Trump's foreign policy team needs to reconsider its logic of escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula.

Ironically, by deploying the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula, the Trump administration is doing something foolish: increasing the possibility of a devastating war for the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.

According to Kienthuc.net.vn