Belarus's Choice: NATO or Russia?

(Baonghean) - Belarus has recently signed many military cooperation agreements with member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). At the same time, the country is also preparing to sign an agreement on special forces with the Kremlin. So what path is Minsk choosing?

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Photo: Reuters

Belarusian Defense Minister Andrei Ravkov recently signed a bilateral military cooperation agreement in Riga with NATO member Latvia. Belarus signed similar agreements with Poland and the United States in October, and signed one with Lithuania in December 2015.

Belarusian political scientist Roman Jakovlevski said that military cooperation between Minsk and NATO is a welcome thing. Explaining this, he asserted that the agreements signed with Latvia, Lithuania and Poland – countries that are both members of the European Union and NATO – are of particular importance for Minsk, especially when put in the context of the fact that these countries share a border of about 1,250 km with Belarus.

According to Jakovlevski, Minsk has been a member of NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) program since 1995. Moreover, non-military cargo destined for the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan (ISAF) has also been transported through Belarusian territory since 2011.

Belarus also cooperates with NATO in the exchange of cadets, joint inspections of military units, and monitoring of military exercises. After all, Belarusian soldiers also participate in peacekeeping operations if requested by the United Nations.

Minsk hosted a joint Russia-Belarus military parade in 2014. Photo: DW

Military agreement with Russia

Military cooperation agreements with NATO countries may contain only routine obligations, but they are attracting special attention at the moment. This is primarily because of tensions arising from Russia's activities in Ukraine and Syria, and secondly because Minsk is in a military alliance with Moscow, and the Kremlin more or less believes that NATO is threatening Russia's vital interests.

Some opinions believe that the cooperation agreement with NATO does not contradict or go against the existing military agreement between Belarus and Russia. According to the Minsk agreement signed with Moscow, the Belarusian army is an inseparable part of the regional military alliance with Russia.

Specifically, according to political scientist Jakovlevski, signing cooperation documents with NATO does not mean that Belarus is "shifting" to the West. He commented: "Minsk will not do anything that goes against Moscow's military interests."

What is the goal of Minsk?

According to Vytis Jurkonis, a political scientist at Vilnius University, Minsk has always been on the side of the Kremlin, including in its assessment and perception of events in Ukraine and Syria. From a personal perspective, he believes that since Russia annexed Crimea, the peace-loving attitude that Belarus has been sending out is a “public relations campaign” through which Minsk wants to project an image of neutrality.

The Belarusian leadership wants access to European money, but at the same time does not want Moscow to worry about turning to the West. In this way, the government in Belarus is trying to “steer” the Kremlin in its favor on the international stage. However, Jurkonis said that Belarus cannot remain neutral, because it has two Russian military bases on its territory, and is also conducting exercises with the Russian army near the NATO border.

As for Moscow, how does it assess Belarus's formal military cooperation agreement with NATO countries? Certainly, they can hardly be satisfied with such efforts by Belarus, but Russia has almost nothing to worry about with this information. This is understandable, because after all, Moscow's influence in Minsk is not small, and it is not something that can be changed easily in a day or two.

Belarus has signed military cooperation agreements with NATO members Latvia, Poland and Lithuania.

Special Forces Agreement with the Kremlin

According to a decree published earlier this month, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has instructed Belarus's State Security Committee (KGB) to negotiate with Russia on an agreement that would allow the deployment of special forces from both countries in counter-terrorism operations on each other's territory.

The group that opposes this idea, including former Chief Justice of the Belarusian Constitutional Court Mikhail Pastukhov, believes that this is unconstitutional, because the responsibility for ensuring law and order in the country belongs to Belarus itself and no one else.

If so, why does Minsk need Russian special forces? Is it because they fear that the economic downturn could potentially lead to events similar to what happened in Kiev, namely mass anti-government protests? In such an unexpected situation, it is clear that the help and rescue of Russian special forces is necessary for President Lukashenko to avoid unforeseen consequences.

Phu Binh

(According to DW)