Reasons for North Korea's move to reconcile with the US

“There are a number of mixed factors” behind North Korea’s sudden change in attitude, said expert Robert Manning, a fellow at the Atlantic Council on Strategy and Security in Washington.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: AP

“This is the first time that comprehensive economic sanctions, ‘maximum pressure’, have worked on North Korea, and evidence suggests that they are weakening the North Korean economy and affecting the elites who are Kim’s moral support,” the expert said. “Kim’s 25 missile tests and three nuclear tests have made the North Korean leader confident that his country can deter the US.”

Sharing the same view, expert Lee Suk from the Korea Development Institute (KDI) commented: "The impact of the sanctions does not seem to be clear on the market, but it is possible that North Korea may suffer further setbacks in the fields of production, trade and consumption, significantly reducing the welfare of economic factors."

However, some experts say it is too early to conclude whether the sanctions are actually having an impact.

Meeting between South Korean special envoy Chung Eui-young and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang on March 5, 2018. Photo: AP

“I think the sanctions have started to affect the North Korean economy, but it will take time to see how much impact they will have,” said Lim Kang-taeg, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “Given the North Korean system and the kind of decisions it has made, the economy is not the main concern. It seems like the time has come to engage in dialogue with the United States to get the security guarantees Pyongyang wants, while the United States is seriously considering a military option.”

Some experts say Mr. Kim's recent actions are not surprising but are part of the young leader's long-term strategy, because North Korea currently holds a powerful bargaining chip, the nuclear weapons program that Mr. Kim declared completed last November.

There is also a stream of opinion that China is the factor that makes North Korea have a conciliatory attitude. Professor Park Won-gon of Handong University commented: “I think China plays a role in leading North Korea back to the negotiating table. Beijing warned that it can no longer protect North Korea if Pyongyang continues to make nuclear and missile provocations. For North Korea, it can no longer completely depend on China.”