Why North Korea restored missile launch site after second summit

Just a week after the second US-North Korea summit ended without any results, South Korean intelligence and many international analysts released satellite images showing that North Korea is rebuilding an engine test stand and launch pad at the Sohae satellite launch facility, also known as Tongchang-ri.

This is information that has received a lot of attention from the world public, raising concerns that North Korea is trying to "toughen the muscles" of the US and could increase tensions between the two countries again, causing the two leaders to end their diplomatic efforts and return to the policy of threatening "fire and fury", according toVox.

Sohae is the facility that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pledged to "permanently dismantle" during a summit with US President Donald Trump last June. Pyongyang has since taken the first steps to end operations at the facility. President Trump recently said he would be "very disappointed in Chairman Kim" if North Korea resumed operations at Sohae.

“They are essentially reassembling what they dismantled after the first Trump-Kim summit in Singapore,” said Victor Cha, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Cha and other experts say Kim Jong-un has many reasons to resume activities at the Sohae launch site after a long period of silence.

Mr. Kim left the Hanoi summit without the expected outcome: the lifting of sanctions that have strangled the North Korean economy and severely impacted the lives of its people. North Korean state media gave heavy coverage to his journey to the summit and improved relations with the United States, but made no mention of the meeting’s less-than-expected outcome.

The lack of a joint agreement at the summit means that the prospects for denuclearization on the Korean peninsula show no signs of improving and Pyongyang continues to face sanctions. US media yesterday quoted anonymous sources as saying that Mr. Kim delivered a last-minute message at the summit with Trump, in an effort to save the negotiations, but the US side did not accept it.

Reports in the US media paint the North Korean leader as being in a weaker position than Trump and more desperate for a deal than the US president, which could force Pyongyang to take certain steps to create leverage to improve its position in future negotiations, according to Jenny Town, an expert at the Stimson Center.

Some observers worry that the restoration of the Sohae launch site is a sign that North Korea will return to its nuclear and missile programs to attract world attention and increase its negotiating leverage. But Joel S. Wit, an expert at the website38 North, believes that this is a very unlikely scenario in the near future.

Wit said that using the Sohae facility to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) would not only be unwise but also very risky. Such a test launch would trigger a wave of criticism from international public opinion, including from China, the country considered North Korea's closest ally.

Pyongyang also has no reason to place an ICBM on a fixed launch pad at Sohae under close surveillance by US intelligence, when it could fire it from a mobile launcher that would require very little preparation time and would be much more secretive. A ballistic missile launched from Sohae would be easily detected during its preparation and could be destroyed in flight or even on the launch pad.

Therefore, Wit believes that North Korea's restoration of the Sohae facility is to serve a future satellite launch. North Korea has used space launch vehicles (SLVs) from Sohae to send satellites into space since 2011 and they have always believed that these satellite launches have nothing to do with their missile and nuclear programs.

However, the US believes that Pyongyang's space program and Sohae launch site have contributed significantly to North Korean engineers perfecting long-range missiles. A satellite launch at Sohae in April 2012 collapsed the "Leap Day Agreement" signed by President Barack Obama's administration with Pyongyang two months earlier, because Washington believed it was a disguised long-range missile test.

Therefore, experts believe that Kim Jong-un's announcement of the complete demolition of the Sohae facility was an attempt to "plug the loophole" in the common perception between the US and North Korea about Pyongyang's satellite launches. Now, by rebuilding the Sohae facility, Kim seems to be opening that loophole and sending an important political message to Trump.

“North Korea has repeatedly expressed its frustration with the US’s refusal to lift sanctions in exchange for halting its nuclear program,” Town said. “By increasing activity at Sohae, Kim appears to be trying to pressure Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in to lift financial sanctions and reopen the inter-Korean economic zone.”

Increasing political pressure with a satellite launch is seen as a reasonable option for Mr. Kim, because North Korea can cite the reason for this action as serving the peaceful space exploration program, an explanation that can easily be accepted by China and Russia, while still putting significant public pressure on the Trump administration.

The 14th Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea is set to be held in Pyongyang, and a satellite launch from Sohae in the coming weeks would help Kim demonstrate to delegates that he is not cowed by US sanctions. The launch could also give him more confidence as he turns to the US and sends the message, "Let's make a deal," Wit said.

However, experts also say this scenario could potentially pose many risks, although the satellite launch would not cause tension like the tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles that could carry nuclear warheads that threaten the US mainland.

"A satellite launch is different from an ICBM test, but it will certainly create problems for the Trump administration," said Vipin Narang, a nuclear expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). "It could complicate the situation, especially if North Korea hawks like John Bolton use it as an excuse to pressure Trump to abandon nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang."