Why China is increasing its nuclear missile submarine fleet

A report recently released by the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for International Policy Research said China is strengthening its fleet of nuclear-capable submarines with an undisclosed number.

Military analysts say that by building more nuclear-armed submarines, China may want to move its nuclear arsenal underwater to maintain nuclear deterrence in the event of a preemptive attack, according toPopular Mechanics.

Expert Tong Zhao of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for International Policy Research said that China will likely double the number of nuclear-armed submarines in the near future.

Unlike Russia and the United States, China’s nuclear doctrine is simple: It will not use nuclear weapons first; any country that attacks China with nuclear weapons will be met with nuclear retaliation. However, in order to launch a nuclear counterattack, Beijing must keep its nuclear arsenal intact after the first strike.

According to its doctrine, China does not build too many nuclear weapons. It currently possesses only 250-300 nuclear warheads, a modest number compared to the 6,450 nuclear warheads of the United States.

China is increasingly unsure of its nuclear retaliation capabilities, as the United States deploys ballistic missile defense systems near the country to counter threats from North Korea and Iran. These systems can easily detect and intercept Chinese land-based nuclear missiles.

The US’s plan to build hundreds of B-21 Raider bombers to hunt down mobile missile launchers also makes Chinese leaders uneasy, as the country mainly deploys nuclear weapons on land. These are the reasons why Beijing decided to build more nuclear-armed submarines in the future.

Currently, most of China's nuclear warheads are equipped for intercontinental ballistic missiles located in silos or on mobile launchers, with only 48 nuclear warheads equipped for ballistic missiles of Jin-class submarines (Type 094A).

The Chinese navy currently has four Jin-class submarines, each capable of carrying 12 JL-2 ballistic missiles. Beijing can maintain at least one nuclear-armed submarine on combat duty at any given time.

If it doubles its nuclear submarine fleet, China faces the question of where to get nuclear warheads to equip these vessels.

According to Tong Zhao, Beijing could remove the nuclear warhead from the DF-31 missile to mount it on the JL-2 intercontinental ballistic missile on a submarine, or simply manufacture more nuclear warheads. However, the possibility of China producing more nuclear weapons is not high because the country has long stopped producing materials for nuclear warheads.