US considers sanctions against India for buying S-400 from Russia

In September, US President Joe Biden met Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House and declared that the two countries were “destined to be closer, more connected, and stronger.” Then, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on October 7 mentioned that Washington could reconsider imposing sanctions on New Delhi if India receives five S-400 air defense systems from Russia based on a $5.5 billion deal between the two countries.

On the first day of a two-day visit to India, Deputy Secretary Sherman said that countries using Russian air defense systems was “dangerous” but Washington was unlikely to take strong action against New Delhi.

The South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, China) quoted Ms. Sherman as saying: “We want to think carefully about the way forward and discuss between the two countries to try to resolve the issues. Hopefully we will do it in this case.”

Since 2016, when India announced a deal to buy Russian weapons, the US has been quite uneasy. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, between 2010 and 2020, up to 62% of India's arms imports came from Russia while US weapons accounted for only 12%. Since 2018, Russia and India have agreed on deals worth $15 billion in transactions ranging from fighter jets to rifles and warships.

In August 2017, the US Senate passed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). In addition to imposing sanctions on Russia, Iran, and North Korea, CAATSA also includes sanctions on countries that have “significant transactions” with these three countries.

This year, the US enacted legislation to impose sanctions on Türkiye for its purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia. Washington also removed Ankara from the F-35 military aircraft development program.

But in January, it emerged that US officials had signaled to Prime Minister Modi's administration that Washington was unlikely to let New Delhi off the hook on the S-400 deal.

In September, Secretary of State Antony Blinken took a similar stance: “We have laws. We apply our laws, but we share the concerns of the United States with India on this.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin later said that sanctions would only be imposed after the air defense system was delivered.

But despite strong opposition from the US, New Delhi still advocates buying Russian S-400 missile defense systems. According to the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi believes that the S-400 is the most effective and important weapon system for India's needs. Accordingly, the Indian Air Force assesses that no system can replace the S-400 in terms of long-range air defense, from cost to capability.

Indian Air Force Chief, Marshal Vivek Ram Chaudhari announced that the first S-400 system will be delivered by the end of this year.

“The softening of the US stance is a sign that Washington accepts that the deal is being finalised and India will not abandon it, despite pressure,” said Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan at ORF.

Other analysts say the change in the US approach is due to timing. “The US will think twice before sanctioning a partner like India at a time when there are doubts about Washington’s reliability as an ally,” said Sameer Patil of Gateway House, a think tank in India. Patil pointed to the rift between the US and France following the formation of the “AUKUS” trilateral alliance of Australia, the UK and the US, as well as allies criticising the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Experts say Deputy Secretary Sherman’s visit shows that Washington does not want to upset the US-India relationship. On October 6, Ms. Sherman said that India’s security concerns are “first and foremost” and “front and center” for Washington. The statement was widely seen as an attempt to reassure India that the US shares concerns about terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. Ms. Sherman also said that the US and India share “similar thinking, similar approaches” on the issue.

In addition, analysts say that sanctioning India for Russia’s S-400 will have a strong impact on the close relationship the two countries have achieved in recent times. This will be bad news for both countries, especially the US, which wants to increase its presence in the Indo-Pacific and counterbalance China.

Some observers believe that instead of punishing India, the US could take better measures to reduce New Delhi's dependence on Moscow's weapons. Mr. Vikram Mahajan at the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum suggested: "The US should invest in India to build a defense manufacturing ecosystem where American manufacturers can come to India and build sophisticated defense systems. This plan can help India become self-reliant and avoid dependence on Russian weapons."