US warns Iran is preparing for large-scale military exercises in the Persian Gulf

Illustration photo: AFP/Getty

According to two US officials with direct knowledge of the latest assessments of the movements of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the exercise in the Persian Gulf could begin in the next two days.

“We have seen an increase in Iranian naval operations in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. We are monitoring this closely and will continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce in international waters,” Colonel William Urban, chief spokesman for US Central Command, told CNN.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. The US Energy Information Administration calls it “the world’s most important oil chokepoint,” with 20% of the world’s traded oil passing through the waterway, which is only 30 miles wide at its narrowest point.

Although the US has not seen any signs of hostile intentions from Iran, the IRGC's show of force has deeply concerned US military intelligence for three fundamental reasons.

First, the exercise took place in the context of the IRGC's escalating rhetoric toward the US in recent days.

Second, it appears that the IRGC is stepping up preparations for a larger-scale exercise than similar efforts in the past.

Third, the timing is a bit odd. These types of IRGC exercises usually take place much later in the year.

So far, the US assesses that the IRGC has amassed a fleet of more than 100 vessels, most of them small, fast-moving vessels. It is expected that Iranian air and ground assets, including coastal defense missile batteries, could join.

Hundreds of Iranian soldiers are expected to participate in the drills, and some conventional Iranian forces may also be included.

The IRGC exercise took place while the United States had only one major warship, the guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans, in the Persian Gulf. Other U.S. warships were nearby, and there were numerous fighter jets in the area, several U.S. officials said.

The US military has sought to encourage other countries in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, to take a strong stance on keeping the Persian Gulf open in the face of Iran's increased rhetoric.

Earlier, on July 27, US Defense Secretary James Mattis said: “Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. They have done this many years ago. They have seen dozens of countries in the international community send naval forces to exercise to clear the strait. Obviously, this would be an attack on international shipping, and there will certainly be an international response to reopen the shipping lanes by whatever means necessary, because the world economy depends on that energy source, the energy supplies that flow from there.”