US warns Iran preparing large-scale military exercises in Persian Gulf

Illustration photo: AFP/Getty

According to two US officials with direct knowledge of the latest assessments of the movements of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the exercise in the Persian Gulf could begin in the next two days.

“We are aware of increased Iranian naval operations in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. We are monitoring them closely and will continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce in international waters,” Col. William Urban, chief spokesman for US Central Command, told CNN.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration calls it “the world’s most important oil chokepoint,” with 20 percent of the world’s traded oil passing through the waterway, which is only 30 miles wide at its narrowest point.

Although the US has not seen any signs of hostile intentions from Iran, the IRGC's show of force has caused deep concern among US military intelligence for three fundamental reasons.

First, the exercise took place in the context of the IRGC's escalating rhetoric toward the US in recent days.

Second, it appears that the IRGC is stepping up preparations for a larger-scale exercise than similar efforts in the past.

Third, the timing is a bit odd. These types of IRGC exercises usually take place much later in the year.

So far, the US assesses that the IRGC has amassed a fleet of more than 100 vessels, most of them small, fast-moving vessels. It is expected that Iranian air and ground assets, including coastal defense missile teams, could join.

Hundreds of Iranian soldiers are expected to participate in the drills, and some conventional Iranian forces may also be part of the exercise.

The IRGC exercise took place while the US had only one major warship – the guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans – in the Persian Gulf, several US officials said. Other US warships were nearby, and there were numerous fighter jets in the area.

The US military has sought to encourage other countries in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, to take a strong stance on keeping the Persian Gulf open in the face of Iran's increasingly bellicose rhetoric.

Earlier, on July 27, US Defense Secretary James Mattis said: “Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. They have done this many years ago. They have seen dozens of countries in the international community send naval forces to exercise to clear the strait. Obviously, this would be an attack on international shipping, and there will certainly be an international response to reopen the shipping lanes by whatever means necessary, because the world economy depends on that energy, the energy supplies that flow from there.”