The US faces China in its 'backyard'.

The influence is fading.

As mentioned, barring any unforeseen circumstances, President-elect Joe Biden will be sworn in at noon on January 20, 2021, officially becoming the next occupant of the White House – the symbol of American power. One of the issues that will grapple with for Biden and his team in dealing with the legacy of the Trump administration is the resource-rich Latin American region, long considered America's "backyard," which is now seeing Beijing's grip tightening over vast swathes of land.

Joe Biden's new administration will face a rising China in its Latin American "backyard." Photo: AP

According to a Reuters investigation, which included numerous interviews with former and current officials and advisors, along with a thorough analysis of trade data, it was concluded that under Trump,China has overtaken the US.in terms of power and influence throughout most of Latin America.

That undoubtedly poses a challenge for President-elect Biden, who has pledged toRestoring global leadershipThis comes after years of implementing Trump's "America First" policy, and he asserts that the decline of American influence in Latin America is a threat to national security. In March, America's Quarterly quoted Biden as saying, "They need to note that Trump's incompetence and neglect in Latin America and the Caribbean will end on day one of my administration." His team declined to comment on the story. But it's probably clear that such a commitment won't be easy to fulfill, let alone overnight.

Since 2018, excluding Mexico, China has replaced the United States as Latin America's largest trading partner, consuming all of the copper mined in the Andes, grain from Argentina, and meat from Brazil.

Beijing has also increased investment and poured low-interest loans into the region, backing energy projects, solar farms, reservoirs, ports, railways, and highways.

The US and China are competing for influence in Latin America. Photo: BBC

"Mr. Trump doesn't care at all."

Officials in the region warn that, as a major economic and diplomatic partner for many countries, China will not be an easy name to dismiss. Billions of dollars from China are seen as a lifeline for emerging economies with large public debts, not to mention the increased need for capital in the face of negative impacts.Covid-19 pandemic.

China is currently the number one trading partner for Brazil, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, and many other countries, far surpassing the US in terms of trade volume with Argentina. Excluding Mexico, trade between China and Latin America has exceeded that of the US since 2018, widening the gap in 2019 to over $223 billion compared to the US's $198 billion (according to trade data analysis from the United Nations' international trade statistics database). Even including Mexico – the US's number one global trading partner last year – the US still has higher overall trade volume with Latin America than with China.

Throughout his term, the Trump administration was criticized by some countries in the region for doing little more than issuing warnings to its Latin American partners.Don't get too close to China.Especially through low-interest financing or technology partnerships in the context of the escalating race for dominance in 5G.

Mark Feierstein, an adviser under former President Barack Obama, says Trump's lack of engagement and withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade bloc created a vacuum for China to step in and fill – and that's exactly what Biden will seek to reverse. “What Trump has done so far is make China look like a better partner. The whole thing is going to change,” Feierstein, now a senior adviser at the Albright Stonebridge Group, said.

A Chinese naval hospital ship docked in Venezuela and provided free medical examinations and treatment (2018). Photo: AFP

Strategic advantage

Many analysts and former advisors in previous administrations assert that the White House under the new Democratic leader, Biden, is likely to prioritize Latin America. However, the White House will also have to juggle post-pandemic recovery and resetting relationships in Europe and Asia.

Janet Napolitano, former Secretary of Homeland Security under Obama, said that her experience working with Biden led her to believe he sees a "strategic advantage for the United States in having strong relationships throughout Central and South Asia."

According to experts, Biden is expected to continue issuing similar warnings regardinggetting closer to ChinaHowever, it may aim to win back both the hearts and minds of its neighbors by offering more financial incentives and resuming humanitarian aid that Trump cut off. Benjamin Gedan, a former National Security Council official under Obama, said: “His administration will recognize South America’s dependence on the Chinese goods market and try to provide support much more strongly and generously.”

A farm in Buenos Aires, Argentina. China is the largest buyer of Argentine soybeans. Photo: Reuters

Economic diplomacy

China seized the opportunity during the pandemic to deepen its relations in Latin America by sending medical supplies, including ventilators and masks, to respond to Covid-19. In Argentina, the government has announced several new or expanded initiatives with China in recent months, including vaccine trials, space cooperation, and courses on Chinese military studies for students at the South American nation's defense college. The two sides have also discussed the possibility of a state visit to China by President Alberto Fernandez and Argentina's participation in Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative.

Margaret Myers, director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue, cited the $2.4 trillion loan package from the Export-Import Bank of China to Ecuador this year, arguing: “China’s economic diplomacy, whether through trade or finance, opens many doors.” The US appeared to have tried to change this direction in the months leading up to the election, launching a series of regional initiatives in an effort to compete with China, but many considered it too late.

Ultimately, the pandemic posed numerous risks to the United States, pushing some Latin American countries closer to partners like China. While acknowledging that Covid-19 is impacting economic decision-making and affecting the morale of many countries, Francis Fannon, US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, still conveyed the message: “We want to encourage countries to continue on the path of reform they have chosen. The United States is the ideal partner, and always will be.”