The US will be bogged down if Trump intervenes militarily in the Venezuela crisis

US President Donald Trump has publicly stated that he is considering a "military option" to overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Now, the US continues to call for Maduro to step down amid a wave of protests against him in the country. Trump said the "military option" is back on the table, according toVox.

Venezuela is facing the risk of a political crisis when two people claim to be the country's legitimate leader: Maduro, who was re-elected in May 2018, and opposition leader Juan Guaido.

Guaido claims that the 2018 election results were tampered with and that, as president of the National Assembly, he is the legitimate president according to the country's constitution. Guaido declared himself "interim president" on January 23 and was supported by Trump. The White House boss declared Maduro "illegitimate" president, calling the Venezuelan National Assembly "the only legitimate branch of government elected by the Venezuelan people".

In that context, observers began to doubt the possibility that Trump could send troops to Venezuela to remove Maduro from the presidency.

But according to General Douglas Fraser, who headed the US Southern Command from 2009 to 2012, military intervention in Venezuela is the wrong move at this time. "I don't see any good reason to mobilize troops in the current situation," Fraser said.

Maduro remains in power and enjoys strong support from key figures in Venezuela, especially the military. On January 24, Venezuela's armed forces stressed their support for President Maduro and vowed to prevent any coup attempt to overthrow him.

The statement means that if the US military wants to remove Maduro, it will face strong resistance from the Venezuelan military, which has over half a million troops.

Even if the US military succeeds in overthrowing Maduro, Venezuela will almost certainly be in a much worse situation than it is now. The South American country is witnessing a severe humanitarian crisis stemming from the economic collapse and hyperinflation of recent years.

After the military intervention, to stabilize the situation, the US military will still have to maintain its presence in Venezuela, which poses the risk of leading to another endless US war abroad, similar to the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan.

According to political scientists Alexander Downes and Lindsey O'Rourke, military intervention from outside is unlikely to change a country's regime for the better. Citizens often express anger toward the occupying forces, thereby provoking resistance movements, making withdrawal even more difficult.

General Fraser believes that instead of military intervention, the US should cooperate with allies and partners in the region to help Venezuela cope with the crisis and difficulties. Most Venezuelans are living in poverty, lacking all necessities. Millions of people have left the country, migrating to Colombia or neighboring countries with the hope of escaping misery.

“I don’t see any benefit to direct military intervention,” Fraser said, adding that President Trump should take that option off his mind.

US National Security Adviser John Bolton said the US’s focus remains on denying the Maduro government access to financial resources, but that the process is also extremely complicated. Washington is urging other countries to “turn away” from the Maduro government.

Britain said on January 24 that Maduro was “not the legitimate leader of Venezuela,” but other European allies were less clear. Russia, meanwhile, warned that foreign intervention in Venezuela could lead to bloodshed.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US is preparing $20 million in humanitarian aid for Venezuela's opposition-led National Assembly. Washington is also considering further sanctions, which are targeting President Maduro rather than the Venezuelan economy.

Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, said the Trump administration's actions increased pressure on Maduro but also posed risks if the government cracked down.

The US has ignored a request from the Maduro government to withdraw its diplomats from the country within 72 hours, citing concerns that he is no longer president of Venezuela, in an early test of whether Washington’s policy will stand.

“The winner will be whoever can attract the strongest support to impose their claims and power in Venezuela,” said Mariano de Alba, a Venezuelan lawyer and international relations expert in Washington. “As long as the Maduro regime maintains control of the territory and the support of the military, they will have the advantage.”