Will America escape the Covid-19 nightmare?

Following a severe outbreak this summer due to the rapid spread of the Delta variant, the SARS-CoV-2 virus appears to be "retreating" in the United States.

The US is recording around 90,000 new Covid-19 cases each day, a decrease of more than 40% since August. The number of hospitalizations and deaths due to Covid-19 has also decreased.

However, the pandemic situation has not subsided across the United States, with Alaska still seeing a high number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Nevertheless, a downward trend in cases is evident nationwide. This offers hope that the worst for America may be over.

Over the past nearly two years, the United States has experienced multiple outbreaks of Covid-19, overwhelming hospitals. It's difficult to pinpoint the exact reasons why the virus thrives and spreads in each outbreak. This makes predicting the future course of the pandemic challenging.

As winter approaches, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the pandemic situation in the US. Nearly 70% of adults have been fully vaccinated, and many children under 12 years old may be eligible for vaccination in a few weeks. Federal regulators will soon authorize the first antiviral drug to treat Covid-19.

However, scientists warn that the pandemic is not over. The US is still recording nearly 2,000 deaths from the disease every day, and a new outbreak in the winter is possible. According to experts, many Americans remain unvaccinated, and it is too early to lift basic preventative measures.

Smooth out the curve.

When the first wave of Covid-19 hit the US in early 2020, there was no vaccine and no one was immune to SARS-CoV-2. At that time, the only way to flatten the pandemic curve was to change people's behavior.

The US mandated stay-at-home orders, closed businesses, required mask-wearing, and banned large gatherings to combat the first wave. While debate remains about the most effective measures, numerous studies indicate that, overall, all of these measures made a difference, keeping people indoors and preventing a surge in cases.

"Once the number of cases decreases, the measures will be lifted," said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.

Then, the number of virus infections will rise again, and similar pandemic response patterns will emerge. Businesses and local governments will reimpose restrictions.

According to a survey on trends and the impact of Covid-19 in the US, throughout the winter of 2020, the percentage of people visiting bars, restaurants, or attending large events decreased.

"The pandemic curve is shaped by public perception. We are caught between crisis and complacency," expert Nuzzo said.

The Delta variant emerged as the U.S. was grappling with the pandemic, a time when many vaccinated Americans were beginning to feel more secure about the disease. Research data suggests that the emergence of the Delta variant prompted less behavioral change in the population compared to previous waves of the pandemic.

According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, in mid-July, only 23% of Americans said they always wore masks in public, the lowest percentage since March 2020. By August 31, the peak of the Delta variant wave, that number had risen to 41%, though still significantly lower than the 77% who always wore masks during the winter.

However, even small changes in behavior can help slow the virus's transmission. The Delta variant has spurred changes at both the individual and organizational levels. Schools have implemented new preventative measures, companies have postponed reopening, and organizations have canceled events, resulting in less virus spread.

Boost immunity

Behavioral changes are a temporary and short-term measure to reduce the number of cases. According to the NY Times, the true end of the pandemic will come from immunity.

The Delta variant caused the first major outbreak after the vaccination program was widely rolled out. The Delta variant is so highly transmissible that it spread rapidly through vulnerable communities, providing natural immunity to many unvaccinated Americans.

Although immunity from vaccination or previous illness does not provide complete protection against SARS-CoV-2, it significantly reduces the risk of infection. Therefore, by September, the SARS-CoV-2 virus had a harder time finding a host to infect.

"The Delta variant is running out of people to infect," said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Columbia University.

The fact that the number of cases is decreasing does not mean a country has achieved herd immunity, a goal many scientists now consider unattainable. However, increased vaccination and infection rates, along with behavioral changes, could potentially end the surge in cases.

"It's a combination of immunity, but people still need to be vigilant," said Joshua Salomon, an infectious disease expert.

Scientists believe that a combination of these factors, which may vary depending on the region, will determine when and why outbreaks occur and then subside. “COVID-19 outbreaks depend on factors such as the severity of the previous wave, the number of people who have been vaccinated, and the emergence of new variants,” said Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Cyber ​​Science Institute at Northeastern University in Boston.

Predictions about the pandemic

Scientists warn that it is very difficult to predict the future course of the pandemic in the United States.

The UK and Israel, both countries with higher vaccination rates than the US, are still facing Covid-19 outbreaks.

"This is a wake-up call. Don't think the pandemic is over," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Most experts say they wouldn't be surprised to see at least a surge in cases in late fall or winter this year as people begin spending more time indoors and traveling during the holidays.

But because vaccines remain highly effective in preventing hospitalization and death from Covid-19, any surge in cases this coming winter will likely be less severe than in 2020.

"It's possible that the number of deaths from Covid-19 this winter won't be as high as last winter, unless a new variant emerges," said Dr. Salomon.