US - Taliban: Fragile peace!
(Baonghean) - Hope followed by disappointment, thinking that a peace agreement was about to be reached but then falling into a deadlock... is what has been happening between the US - Taliban and the Afghan government in recent days.
September 8th could have gone down in Afghan history when the secret meeting between US President Donald Trump and Taliban leaders took place as previously announced by the head of the White House. However, all bright prospects collapsed completely after Mr. Trump suddenly decided to cancel this meeting.
Who is not worthy of who?
Just a few days ago, public opinion was optimistic that President Donald Trump's announcement of meeting privately with Taliban leaders was a breakthrough after a series of "unprecedented" positive developments between the parties recently.
The public has not forgotten that the US and the Taliban have agreed on a draft agreement, according to which the US will withdraw 5,000 troops from Afghanistan and close 5 military bases within 135 days. In return, the Taliban pledged not to allow terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda or the self-proclaimed "Islamic State" (IS) to use Afghanistan as a springboard to carry out attacks against the US and its allies. In addition, the Taliban also agreed to hold talks within Afghanistan on September 23.
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| US President Donald Trump suddenly announced the cancellation of the meeting at Camp David with Taliban leaders. Source: Reuters |
However, all positive signs have been "down the drain" with the latest statement of President Donald Trump. Secret negotiations at Camp David were canceled just before "G hour", after 1 American soldier was killed in the attack that killed 12 people and injured dozens.
“If the Taliban cannot cease fire at a crucial moment in the negotiation process, they have no right to negotiate a meaningful agreement.”
The Taliban has claimed responsibility for the attack. In his statement, Mr. Trump made no secret of his anger, saying, “If the Taliban cannot cease fire at a critical point in the negotiation process, they have no right to negotiate a meaningful agreement.”
Observers commented that it seems the Taliban made miscalculations at the decisive moment against an "unpredictable" President like Donald Trump.
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| Negotiations between the US and the Taliban have been going on for nearly a year in Doha. Source: Al Jazeera |
For Donald Trump, getting the US out of the “Afghanistan quagmire” will be a foreign and security success during his presidency, a plus for the important presidential election next year. Looking back at the past 20 years, the Afghanistan war has killed more than 2,400 US soldiers, about 1,100 coalition soldiers, more than 60,000 security personnel and thousands of civilians. However, despite the obvious benefits of promoting the negotiation process with the Taliban, Donald Trump has not completely “yielded” to any move by the Taliban.
Some say the Taliban appears to have “crossed the line” by claiming responsibility for the attack, a move the group said could put pressure on the US ahead of secret meetings and negotiations.
Can the deadlock be resolved?
Immediately after the collapse, both sides issued statements criticizing and warning each other. For his part, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo affirmed that the negotiation process for a peace agreement for Afghanistan was "dead" at the present time, at the same time, the US will continue to provide military support to Afghan soldiers until the Taliban forces make specific commitments and actions.
Meanwhile, after claiming responsibility for the attack in Kabul, the Taliban group became even more aggressive, warning that they would kill more Americans and were even ready to fight the US for the next 100 years.
It seems that at the crucial moment, both the US and the Taliban want to steer the developments and outcomes of the negotiations according to their terms and wishes.
If the Taliban wants to use attacks to gain more advantages in negotiations with the US, Washington also maintains that negotiations and violence cannot go hand in hand. Therefore, there are also opinions that the announcement of the cancellation of the secret meeting is a way for Mr. Trump to send a message to the Taliban that this group is not really worthy to sit at the negotiating table, if it does not "accept" the terms from the US side.
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| 18 years of quagmire have made US President Donald Trump want to change strategy in Afghanistan. Source: AP |
But of course, in the context of both sides being tough and uncompromising, the 18-year milestone since the US launched the war on terror in Afghanistan has not yet come to an end. Meanwhile, the Afghan government is still being sidelined in the dialogue between the US and the Taliban, because this group does not want to talk to a government considered a puppet of Washington. This makes the negotiation process towards peace in Afghanistan even more difficult.
At this time, many opinions believe that US President Donald Trump is really showing goodwill in negotiating but is somewhat hasty, while the Taliban is not flexible enough to satisfy the US. Therefore, to be able to return to the negotiating table, the Taliban may need to make more concessions. That could be a ceasefire across Afghanistan and a nod to negotiate with the Afghan government, not just the US. Although negotiations cannot be resumed soon because both sides still need time to make concessions without "losing points" with the other side, observers believe that after 18 years of costly conflict, all sides, the US, the Taliban and the Afghan government, are moving towards a better prospect. Only, perhaps the parties still need more time!
