Natural disasters in 2019 were more complex and severe than in 2018.

Natural disasters are more complex and severe than in 2018

Mr. Hoang Duc Cuong - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said: "In 2019, due to the impact of the El Nino phenomenon, natural disasters continue to have complicated developments, the number of storms is less but the intensity is stronger and more unusual, the number of heavy rains is not much but more fierce than in 2018..."

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in 2019, the meteorological forecast: ENSO phenomenon is forecasted to likely maintain El Nino status in the first half of 2019 with a probability of 80-90%.

Under the impact of El Nino, storms and tropical depressions are likely to appear later than the average of many years.

Average temperatures are generally higher than the average; Severe cold spells, possibly harmful cold, lasting from 4-7 days, concentrated in January 2019.

Heat waves are likely to appear earlier than average in areas across the country.

Regarding the hydrological situation in the dry season of 2019, the flow of rivers and streams in the Northwest region is generally at approximately the average level, while in the Northeast and Viet Bac regions it is generally lower than the average level.

The lowest water level at Hanoi station may drop to 0.3-0.4m in February-March 2019. In the Central region, many rivers and streams may experience the lowest water level in the monitoring data series.

Drought and local water shortages are likely to occur in the South Central and Central Highlands regions.

In the South, the water level of the upper Mekong River is gradually decreasing and is 0.2-0.5m higher than the average, the flow at the main stations is likely to be 10-25% higher than the average and equivalent to the dry season of 2016-2017. The saline intrusion situation in the dry season is lower than the average and equivalent to the 2016-2017.

During the 2019 flood season, flood peaks on rivers and streams in the Northern region were generally at level 2-3, with some small rivers and streams above level 3.

Flash floods and landslides continue to be a threat and a dangerous natural disaster causing damage in mountainous provinces, especially in the mountainous areas of the Northwest.

Due to the impact of local heavy rain, urban areas and large cities such as Hanoi, Hai Phong, Nam Dinh, etc. are likely to experience some local flooding.

The flood season on rivers in the Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions is likely to come later than the average. The annual flood peak on rivers will be at the same level as the average. Flash floods and landslides will occur at the same rate as in 2018.

During the Lunar New Year of the Pig, temperatures in the North will likely be higher than average, severe cold is unlikely to occur during this period.

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In the Central region, there will be some rain, with little chance of widespread rain due to weak cold air during Tet holiday. The weather will be cool with moderate temperature.

The weather in the Southern and Central Highlands regions is mainly dry, with the possibility of hot weather with temperatures reaching 35-36 degrees Celsius. There is little chance of unseasonal rain during the Lunar New Year.

Severe cold in the North, heavy rain in the Central region, little rain in the South

Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, General Department of Hydro-Meteorology (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment) shared: “El Nino is likely to reappear. Severe cold and frost may occur widely in the North, heavy rain in the Central region and drought in the South Central and Southern provinces are dangerous weather phenomena that may occur in the winter of 2018-2019”.

“It is forecasted that during mid-winter (December 2018 and January 2019), cold air waves will flow into our country more frequently, with a frequency of about 4-5 days/wave. The weather will be colder and there is a high possibility of severe cold spells occurring over a large area in the North, concentrated in January and the first half of February 2019.

During these severe cold spells, high mountain areas such as Fansipan (Lao Cai), Mau Son (Lang Son)... are likely to experience frost. During the late winter, around February 2019, between cold spells there will be some days with light rain, drizzle and fog", said Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam.

According to Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam, in the first 5 months of 2019, there is little possibility of storms or tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea.

Notably, in December 2018 and the first three months of 2019, it is forecasted that coastal areas and sea areas in the northern and central East Sea will often experience strong northeast winds.

Other dangerous weather phenomena are likely to occur nationwide, especially thunderstorms and heavy rains in the Central region in the last month of 2018 and early 2019 during strong cold air waves moving south; in the Northern, Central Highlands and Southern regions, thunderstorms and tornadoes will increase in number from April to May 2019.

The latest forecasts of ENSO phenomenon from climate forecasting agencies around the world show a continued trend of rapid increase in sea surface temperature in the NINO3.4 region. Accordingly, El Nino status is forecast to be maintained in the last months of 2018 and the first half of 2019. The appearance of El Nino will increase drought and saltwater intrusion.

“It is forecasted that in the Northern provinces from February to May 2019, rainfall will be 10-25% lower than the average of many years. In the Central provinces, total rainfall from December 2018 to May 2019 will generally be 20-40% lower than the average of many years. In the Central and South Central provinces, there are warnings of little rain from the first months of 2019.

The Southern and Central Highlands provinces also had little rain in the first months of 2019, with rainfall forecast to be 20-40% lower than the average of many years. The rainy season in 2019 is forecast to come later than usual,” Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam added./.