Raising the retirement age: A specific roadmap is needed.

According to research by the International Labour Organization (ILO), Vietnam's Social Insurance Fund could begin to experience deficits as early as 2021 and be completely depleted by 2034 if timely policy changes are not implemented.

One of the ILO's recommendations is to raise the retirement age for both men and women to 65 starting in 2016. However, according to Vietnamese experts, this issue requires a reasonable explanation and a specific roadmap to avoid disruption.

One of the recommendations recently made by ILO representatives to Vietnam to ensure the sustainability of the social insurance fund is to raise the retirement age for both men and women to 65.

According to the ILO, although Vietnamese law currently stipulates a retirement age of 55 for women and 60 for men, the actual retirement age across all sectors is 53.4. In reality, life expectancy is increasing, and the ratio of social insurance beneficiaries to those contributing to social insurance will rise sharply. Therefore, raising the retirement age to balance social insurance contributions and benefits in the future is essential.

The ILO report also stated that in 2012, Vietnam began entering the "aging population" phase, with the group of people over 60 years old accounting for more than 10% of the total population, five years earlier than expected. Between 2020 and 2050, Vietnam will face potentially the highest rate of population aging in Asia. Therefore, raising the retirement age is necessary to have a sufficient workforce to compensate for the decline in the working-age population. Simultaneously, a common retirement age for both men and women should be implemented so that Vietnam can best utilize its available domestic human resources.

Christian Bodewig, a senior expert at the ILO, stated: “We have a young workforce. But the problem is that the proportion of this young workforce will change very quickly and soon shift to the other side of the curve in the workforce adjustment trend. Therefore, to balance and ensure the sustainability of the entire system, we need to build consensus and engage in broad public dialogue so that society can understand the fundamental points and work together to solve the problem.”

Commenting on the ILO representative's recommendation, Associate Professor Giang Thanh Long from the National Economics University argued that increasing the retirement age would only prolong the pension fund's existence for a while longer. For true sustainability, policymakers need to focus on building a multi-tiered social security policy that attracts contributions appropriate to each social stratum.

Associate Professor Giang Thanh Long said: “The acceptability of policy changes and the accountability of policies are aspects that this report needs to consider. I believe these recommendations need to be placed within very clear scenarios to identify which are bad scenarios and which are acceptable under Vietnam's future conditions as the country becomes an aging population. Balancing contributions with a phased increase in retirement age is one of the things I believe this research needs to add to demonstrate that this roadmap is not a shock, but a gradual one in our country's context.”

According to Dr. Pham Do Nhat Tan, former Director of the Social Insurance Department (Ministry of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs), with the amended Social Insurance Law, to increase the coverage of voluntary social insurance, those participating in compulsory insurance only need a contract of at least one month to be eligible, and the contribution level will also be lowered, not based on the basic salary as before.

Based on these revisions, Dr. Pham Do Nhat Tan suggested that ILO experts use these policy changes to recalculate the fund balance forecast, aiming to produce more up-to-date and accurate figures to convince policymakers.

Dr. Pham Do Nhat Tan suggested: "In my opinion, the issue of adjusting social insurance policies is not a technical matter, but rather a social one, ensuring that all these scenarios and proposed issues gain consensus and social acceptance. I think the drafting agencies need to develop a suitable roadmap to gradually gain societal acceptance of the options."

The issue of population aging and social security, if not given adequate attention, could become a burden on the country when too many people are dependent on it. Whether or not to raise the retirement age, especially for women, has been discussed in numerous scientific conferences and even in the National Assembly forum when contributing opinions to the revised Labor Code.

The majority opinion suggests that raising the retirement age should be considered from various perspectives such as age, gender, occupation, health, habits, and culture. If only the Social Insurance Fund is considered, further research and evaluation are needed. Many online news sites have also surveyed readers on whether to maintain or increase the retirement age for women. The results show that most opinions suggest keeping the current retirement age: 60 for men and 55 for women.

According to VOV - TH